River Flood Warning 217, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
324 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE COLD FRONT WITH SEVERE CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE CWA AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.  AREA OF WRAP AROUND LIGHT PRECIP - SNOW IS
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLIER EQUIPMENT FAILURE HAS CASCADED OVER INTO EVERYTHING ELSE.
BRIEFLY...WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES GOING FOR TONIGHT AND ADD
SOME ADDITIONAL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO
HAVING IT VERIFY. RADAR RETURNS SHOW PRECIP BREAKING OUT IN AN
AREA OF FORCING AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SNOW AND
FZDZ TO THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD END LATE TONIGHT AS THE BETTER
FORCING DEPARTS THE AREA.

QUIET WX THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. PSEUDO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND
ALLOWS SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWFA.
CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA BUT THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA.

AFTER A QUIET WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA. SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY.
...08...

&&

.AVIATION...
MESSY FORECAST FOR AVIATION WITH RAPID CHANGES IN FLIGHT RULE
CATEGORIES OCCURRING IN OBSERVATIONS...PLUS RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...FOG AND EVEN SOME THUNDER EARLIER TODAY.  GENERAL TREND
THROUGH THE EVENING SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT...HOWEVER...AS SPRING-LIKE
SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST.  SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING...BUT THEN CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS.    WOLF

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE NOW MOVED OFF TO THE EAST SO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS OVER...BUT
THE LINGERING SHIELD OF LIGHTER RAIN COULD AGGRAVATE ANY EXISTING
GROUND WATER PROBLEMS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN CANCELLED.
WE HAVE ALSO MELTED NEARLY ALL OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH LIKELY PRODUCED ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RUNOFF.
THUS...RIVER FLOODING AND ICE JAMS ARE THE MAIN THREAT NOW.  CURRENT
RIVER FORECASTS TAKE SEVERAL LOCATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINLY THE ROCK...GREEN AND THE LA MOINE RIVERS
IN ILLINOIS.  ALSO AFFECTED ARE PORTIONS OF THE ENGLISH AND IOWA IN
IOWA...AND THE FOX RIVER IN MISSOURI.  A FEW LOCATIONS ARE LOOKING
AT UP TO MODERATE FLOODING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ALSO...BREAKUP OF
ICE ON THE RIVERS CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS...AND ASSOCIATED
FLOODING.  AT HIGHEST RISK OF THIS IS THE ROCK RIVER IN ILLINOIS.
...LE...

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&