River Flood Warning 215, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
324 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE COLD FRONT WITH SEVERE CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE CWA AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.  AREA OF WRAP AROUND LIGHT PRECIP - SNOW IS
DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLIER EQUIPMENT FAILURE HAS CASCADED OVER INTO EVERYTHING ELSE.
BRIEFLY...WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES GOING FOR TONIGHT AND ADD
SOME ADDITIONAL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO
HAVING IT VERIFY. RADAR RETURNS SHOW PRECIP BREAKING OUT IN AN
AREA OF FORCING AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SNOW AND
FZDZ TO THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD END LATE TONIGHT AS THE BETTER
FORCING DEPARTS THE AREA.

QUIET WX THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. PSEUDO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND
ALLOWS SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO PASS MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWFA.
CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA BUT THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA.

AFTER A QUIET WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE AREA. SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY.
...08...

&&

.AVIATION...
MESSY FORECAST FOR AVIATION WITH RAPID CHANGES IN FLIGHT RULE
CATEGORIES OCCURRING IN OBSERVATIONS...PLUS RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...FOG AND EVEN SOME THUNDER EARLIER TODAY.  GENERAL TREND
THROUGH THE EVENING SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT...HOWEVER...AS SPRING-LIKE
SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST.  SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING...BUT THEN CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS.    WOLF

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE NOW MOVED OFF TO THE EAST SO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS OVER...BUT
THE LINGERING SHIELD OF LIGHTER RAIN COULD AGGRAVATE ANY EXISTING
GROUND WATER PROBLEMS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN CANCELLED.
WE HAVE ALSO MELTED NEARLY ALL OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH LIKELY PRODUCED ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RUNOFF.
THUS...RIVER FLOODING AND ICE JAMS ARE THE MAIN THREAT NOW.  CURRENT
RIVER FORECASTS TAKE SEVERAL LOCATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINLY THE ROCK...GREEN AND THE LA MOINE RIVERS
IN ILLINOIS.  ALSO AFFECTED ARE PORTIONS OF THE ENGLISH AND IOWA IN
IOWA...AND THE FOX RIVER IN MISSOURI.  A FEW LOCATIONS ARE LOOKING
AT UP TO MODERATE FLOODING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ALSO...BREAKUP OF
ICE ON THE RIVERS CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS...AND ASSOCIATED
FLOODING.  AT HIGHEST RISK OF THIS IS THE ROCK RIVER IN ILLINOIS.
...LE...

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
536 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-281145-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
536 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL RANGE FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING TODAY TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR OVER MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF A
DUBUQUE OTTUMWA LINE.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. BY EARLY THIS EVENING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THE HEAVY RAIN AND RUNOFF
FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNINGS RAPID SNOWMELT MAY RESULT IN
SOME FLASH FLOODING THIS MORNING. FLOODING FROM THE RUNOFF WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SOME TRIBUTARIES IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

DENSE FOG WILL ALSO PLAGUE AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA AND RAIN
CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CHANGING
THE RAIN TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS EVENING THE MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WEST OF DUBUQUE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF ICE FROM THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AND SNOW WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION
REPORTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
309 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     FREEZING RAIN    SOUTH AMANA             41.78N 91.97W
12/27/2008  M0.10 INCH       IOWA               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RAYW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
313 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     ICE STORM        VICTOR                  41.73N 92.29W
12/27/2008                   IOWA               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 0.25 INCH ICE ON ALL SURFACES SINCE 9 AM.
            LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL FALLING. SPOTTER ALSO
            REPORTS 0.70 PRECIPITATION TOTAL SINCE 2 AM.

&&

MIKEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FREEZING RAIN    NNW SPRINGVILLE         42.06N 91.45W
12/27/2008  E0.03 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1/32 INCH ICE COATING ON SURFACES FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE.
            ROADS ARE SALTED AND NOT SLICK.

&&

ERVIN

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