River Flood Warning 201, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
256 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
EARLY THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT ORIGINATING AT LOW PRESSURE OVER
SW IOWA....EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. A
COLD FRONT STRETCHED SW FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN NE AND EASTERN
KS. A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR WAS IN PLACE WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
70 DEW POINTS. WARM SECTOR H8 DEW POINTS WERE AROUND 15C. A LARGE
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN IL AND SRN WI...SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN
KS. SCATTERED TSRA WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
PCPN SHIELD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE PCPN TRENDS THROUGH SUNDAY. NO
CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE
OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA UNTIL 18Z TODAY. AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS
CURRENTLY FROM NEAR MEMPHIS MO NORTHEAST THROUGH PROPHETSTOWN
ILLINOIS. EXPECT THIS AXIS SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN CWFA THIS
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA.
PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA BY 18Z AS
SURFACE WAVE MOVES INTO WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD
ONLY RISE ABOUT 5 DEGREES TODAY WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND PCPN
OVER THE AREA. REMNANTS OF IKE ARE STILL FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PLACE THE WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES UNDER THE NORTHWEST EDGE
OF THE PCPN SHIELD. AT THIS POINT...WITH QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND AND INCH OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
COUNTIES...WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE ILLINOIS SIDE OF THE RIVER. IF IKE TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE NW...THEN ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. BASED ON
CURRENT EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF IKE...PCPN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
CWFA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE THE END OF OUR
RECENT STRETCH OF WET WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE
IN OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER OR NEARBY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOWS TUESDAY DIPPING INTO THE 40S. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. WARMER TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS GENERALLY 3-5SM WITH CIGS 1-3KFT WITH POCKETS
OF CIGS BLO 1KFT AND VSBYS 2SM. TSRA GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WARM
FRONT IN THE ZONE OF BEST WAA WHICH IS MOVG INTO NORTHEAST IL.
CONDITIONS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS THE
NEXT SFC WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. ONCE THE SFC WAVE
PASSES...CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR. WET GROUND SHOULD
RESULT IN VSBYS OF 3-5SM AFTER SUNSET. PRECIP SHIELD FROM IKE SHOULD
BEGIN ARRIVING AROUND 14/12Z.        ...08...

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
     MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

DLF/DLF/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
527 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-141030-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
527 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY
RAIN WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AS WELL AS THE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THE RUNOFF
FROM THE RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES AND SOME FLOODING ON
AREA TRIBUTARIES.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW WAS
HELPING TO FOCUS THE HEAVY RAIN FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST IT WILL CAUSE THE WARM
FRONT AND THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH. BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MORE RAIN WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
SET UP FROM EASTERN MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS...JUST BRUSHING AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A MEMPHIS
MISSOURI...PRINCETON ILLINOIS LINE WITH ANOTHER INCH TO INCH AND A
HALF OF RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING REPORTS.

DLF

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