River Flood Warning 161, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
606 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. A COUPLE OF DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER ABOUT MID-WEEK AS UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS BY AND WEAK RIDGING OCCURS. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES RETURNING THE PERSISTENT STORMY
PATTERN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

..HAASE..

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN KS TO NORTHEAST IA AND INTO
CENTRAL WI. VERY JUICY AIR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT PERSISTS ALL DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DVN CWA.
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. HOWEVER AS BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. THE WATCH WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED ON MONDAY TO COVER THAT PORTION OF THE
CWA AND WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY SHOVING
BOUNDARY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH. WEAK RIDGING OCCURS ABOUT MID-WEEK
GIVING US A COUPLE OF QUIET DAYS. DEEP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES LATER IN THE WEEK RETURNING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL BRING THE BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH WARM
JUICY AIR. STORMY PATTERN SHOULD START UP AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

..HAASE..

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I 80 AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI... AS CENTRAL IA
CONVECTION MOVES EAST WHILE ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION BLOSSOMS
ON NOSE OF VEERED 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES LIKELY TO
FUEL ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL UPGROWTH
INTO ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS GENERALLY LOWER VFR RANGE TO
MVFR EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS WITH STORMS.      ..05..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE. ANY
INTENSE THUNDERSTORM OR TRAINING OF STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME AREAS COULD EXCEED 6 INCHES OF RAIN
IF THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE THE SEVERITY OF THE CURRENT FLOODING SITUATION.

..HAASE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-
IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LINN-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

HAASE/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
445 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-091000-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
445 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS OVER 70 MPH...BUT LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD EVENT IS SHAPING UP ON MONDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...WESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

MINOR TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON MANY EASTERN IOWA TRIBUTARY
RIVERS...WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM DUBUQUE SOUTHWARD. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT PRODUCT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAASE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1004 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HOLY CROSS              42.60N 91.00W
06/08/2008  M2.50 INCH       DUBUQUE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ELLIOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1005 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 N LONG GROVE          41.71N 90.58W
06/08/2008  E50 MPH          SCOTT              IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WIND GUST OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

&&

ELLIOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1014 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N DEWITT              41.87N 90.55W
06/08/2008                   CLINTON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST ESTIMATED UP TO 60 MPH DOWNED 2 TO 3 INCH
            DIAMETER BRANCHES.

&&

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1016 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 AM     TSTM WND GST     DEWITT                  41.82N 90.55W
06/08/2008  E60 MPH          CLINTON            IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            55 TO 60 MPH.

&&

ELLIOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1018 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSE SABULA            42.00N 90.12W
06/08/2008  M60 MPH          CARROLL            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 INCH BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

ELLIOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1020 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 W FREEPORT            42.29N 89.67W
06/08/2008  E60 MPH          STEPHENSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 INCH BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

ELLIOTT