Severe Thunderstorm Warning 352, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 272241
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
541 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

IAC001-049-077-121-272315-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0352.000000T0000Z-080627T2315Z/
ADAIR IA-GUTHRIE IA-DALLAS IA-MADISON IA-
541 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON...SOUTHERN DALLAS...SOUTHEASTERN GUTHRIE AND
NORTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES...

AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STUART...OR 38 MILES WEST OF DES
MOINES...MOVING EAST AT 39 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DEXTER AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF REDFIELD BY 550 PM CDT...
  EARLHAM BY 555 PM CDT...
  DE SOTO AND 9 MILES NORTH OF WINTERSET BY 605 PM CDT...
  VAN METER BY 610 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 85 AND 116.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4140 9446 4155 9449 4164 9440 4163 9388
      4129 9395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 277DEG 34KT 4150 9432

$$

ALBRECHT

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 272248
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
548 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

IAC001-049-077-121-272315-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0352.000000T0000Z-080627T2315Z/
ADAIR IA-GUTHRIE IA-DALLAS IA-MADISON IA-
548 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON...SOUTHERN DALLAS...SOUTHEASTERN GUTHRIE AND
NORTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES...

AT 547 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DEXTER...OR
33 MILES WEST OF DES MOINES...MOVING EAST AT 39 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EARLHAM BY 555 PM CDT...
  DE SOTO AND 9 MILES NORTH OF WINTERSET BY 605 PM CDT...
  VAN METER BY 610 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 91 AND 116.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4141 9433 4157 9438 4164 9426 4163 9388
      4129 9395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 277DEG 34KT 4149 9423

$$

ALBRECHT

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 272258
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
558 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

IAC001-077-272308-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0352.000000T0000Z-080627T2315Z/
ADAIR IA-GUTHRIE IA-
558 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GUTHRIE AND
NORTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 556 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO
LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS 
BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR IOWA.

LAT...LON 4143 9425 4153 9423 4164 9416 4163 9388
      4130 9395 4129 9396
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 284DEG 36KT 4147 9411

$$

IAC049-121-272315-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0352.000000T0000Z-080627T2315Z/
DALLAS IA-MADISON IA-
558 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON AND SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTIES...

AT 556 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR EARLHAM...OR 28 MILES WEST OF DES MOINES...MOVING EAST 
AT 41 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DE SOTO BY 605 PM CDT...
  6 MILES SOUTH OF VAN METER AND 8 MILES NORTH OF WINTERSET BY 610 PM
  CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 116.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4143 9425 4153 9423 4164 9416 4163 9388
      4130 9395 4129 9396
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 284DEG 36KT 4147 9411

$$

ALBRECHT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

ANOTHER INTERESTING FORECAST SCENARIO.  WE HAD AN MCV MOVE ACROSS
SRN IA WHICH PRODUCED CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE.  THIS IS NOW
ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AND WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS AND
CAPES OF 2000-3000...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.  TO OUR WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NW IA.  A COUPLE OF VORT CENTERS ARE RIDING
THROUGH THE FLOW AND ENHANCING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER MN HAS AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
OVER OVER SE SDKTA INTO NCEN NEB.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE THE MAIN
SHOW AS THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN SOME VERY
MOISTURE RICH AND UNSTABLE AIR.  ONCE THE STORMS GET GOING THEY
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THIS
EVENING.  THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS SCENARIO IS THE GFS SOLUTION...
WHICH DEVELOPS AN MCS ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER AND TRUCKS THAT EAST
OVERNIGHT.  THE QPF THAT THE GFS PUTS OUT IS IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES...WHICH WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE.  IT IS HOWEVER THE OUTLIER SO
WHILE IT DESERVES MENTION GIVEN OUR PAST HEAVY RAINFALL...IT IS THE
LEAST FAVORED GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST IN TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN CLIP
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH THE DAY. THE 500 MB -20C COLD CORE
WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
15Z-21Z. IF ANY SURFACE HEATING AT ALL CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND ARRIVAL OF THE COLD CORE...WILL BECOME A CLASSIC
COLD CORE PULSE SEVERE CASE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THESE CASES
TEND TO BE PROFICIENT SMALL HAIL PRODUCERS WITH A FEW REACHING UP TO
SEVERE LIMITS. IN ADDITION WITH THE PULSE NATURE OF THE STORMS AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...MICROBURSTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PASSING OVERHEAD...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH DURING THE TIME
PERIOD SPECIFIED ABOVE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FAIRLY COOL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S THOUGH CANNOT DISCOUNT POTENTIAL FOR
READINGS TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE MASON CITY AREA.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY THOUGH BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE TO THE EAST...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE STATE WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAVE THE AREA
WASHED OUT SO TO SPEAK FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANY MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH. FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...HAVE
FOLLOWED THE MORE CONSISTENT AND PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY THEN SETTLING
JUST TO THE SOUTH IN MISSOURI TO END THE WEEK. PLACEMENT OF WHERE
THE BOUNDARY STALLS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH WILL IN
TURN BUILD A RIDGE THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST. THE STRONGER THE
RIDGE BECOMES TO THE WEST...THE FARTHER SOUTH THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SETTLE THEN STALL.

&&

.AVIATION....27/18Z
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER MN
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE FORECAST.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER SDKTA AND NEB AND ROLL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING HOURS.  MVFR/IFR COND WL LIFT TO
VFR COND THROUGH 22Z THEN THERE WILL BE LCL MVFR/IFR COND IN TSRA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HIGHWAY 3
SOUTH TO MISSOURI BORDER UNTIL 00Z.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
425 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

IAZ026>028-036>039-046>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-282130-
FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
425 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF
CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY WITH ANY STORM AND THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>025-033>035-044-045-282130-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-
425 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF CENTRAL
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH ANY
STORM AND THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
POSSIBLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FAB