Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 150557
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1257 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

IAC091-109-147-151-150630-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0265.000000T0000Z-080615T0630Z/
KOSSUTH IA-PALO ALTO IA-POCAHONTAS IA-HUMBOLDT IA-
1257 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR WESTERN HUMBOLDT...NORTHERN POCAHONTAS...SOUTHERN PALO ALTO AND
SOUTHWESTERN KOSSUTH COUNTIES...

AT 1252 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EMMETSBURG TO 9 MILES WEST
OF LAURENS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 24 MILES EAST OF SPENCER
TO 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF STORM LAKE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 38 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MALLARD AND LAURENS BY 105 AM CDT...
  RODMAN BY 110 AM CDT...
  WHITTEMORE...WEST BEND...PLOVER AND HAVELOCK BY 115 AM CDT...
  WEST BEND BY 120 AM CDT...
  ROLFE AND OTTOSEN BY 125 AM CDT...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT TORNADOES...WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN ONE
HALF INCH...OR STORM DAMAGE BY CALLING LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
ASKING THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4302 9413 4265 9426 4265 9431 4284 9493
      4290 9493 4290 9492 4311 9493 4317 9490
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 294DEG 33KT 4309 9463 4283 9496

$$

DONAVON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1208 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED SW-NE THROUGH IA WITH MLCAPES UP TO
1500 J/KG AND NIL CIN.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD VERY WELL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
EVENING.  WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...HIGH DCAPES AND LCLS...AND
MARGINAL 0-1KM SHEAR/SRH... FEEL LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  COULD SEE A LULL TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...THEN ATTENTION TURNS BACK TO THE IA/MN BORDER.  MOST
MODELS SHOW 300K ISENT SFCS WITH UVM AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT SO HAVE CHANCES GOING FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS WITH REASONABLE SCENARIO
OF STORM CLUSTERS/MCSS DEVELOPING OVER UPPER MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT
WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RACING THROUGH WSWERLY FLOW. ONE SUCH
COMPLEX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN SD/SOUTHWESTERN
MN...AND ANOTHER TO FORM LATER OVER EEASTERN NE. THE FORMER SHOULD
TRACK ACROSS OUR FAR N/NE COUNTIES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...WHILE THE LATTER WILL CROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COMPLEX MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...AND HYDRO EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BE PRIMARY CONCERN. HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THAT AREA SUBSTANTIALLY...BUT STILL HAVE ONLY
ABOUT HALF OF WHAT THE MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT. IN OTHER
WORDS...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF RAIN BUT POOR CONFIDENCE IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EITHERWAY...THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUR AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

THEREAFTER...NWERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
SMALL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP AT
TIMES...MAINLY AFTER WEDNESDAY. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A VERY WELCOME
QUIET AND PLEASANT WEEK (AFTER SUNDAY) WITH LOW POPS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...15/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT
WHERE AND WHEN THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH. CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN IA WILL MOVE ESE...WITH SOME
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION WILL BE AFT 15Z SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DSM TO ALO. CLEARING
AND DRYING WILL WORK SOUTH BEHIND THIS LINE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...MOYER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
515 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-151000-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
515 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT..WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
AGAIN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH
TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT.

ALBRECHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
910 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             3 SSE HUBBARD           42.26N 93.28W
06/14/2008  E0.75 INCH       HARDIN             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60 MPH WINDS AS WELL. HAIL TAKING LEAVES OFF TREES.

0145 PM     HAIL             3 SW NEW PROVIDENCE     42.25N 93.21W
06/14/2008  E0.88 INCH       HARDIN             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL. DELAYED REPORT.

0148 PM     HAIL             3 S ELDORA              42.32N 93.10W
06/14/2008  E0.75 INCH       HARDIN             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0203 PM     HAIL             SSW UNION               42.24N 93.06W
06/14/2008  M0.88 INCH       HARDIN             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0216 PM     HAIL             CONRAD                  42.22N 92.87W
06/14/2008  E1.00 INCH       GRUNDY             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0223 PM     HAIL             BEAMAN                  42.22N 92.82W
06/14/2008  E0.75 INCH       GRUNDY             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0225 PM     HAIL             1 WNW MARSHALLTOWN AIRP 42.12N 92.94W
06/14/2008  E0.75 INCH       MARSHALL           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0230 PM     TSTM WND GST     N MARSHALLTOWN AIRPORT  42.11N 92.92W
06/14/2008  M59.00 MPH       MARSHALL           IA   ASOS

0231 PM     TSTM WND GST     MARSHALLTOWN            42.04N 92.91W
06/14/2008  M59.00 MPH       MARSHALL           IA   ASOS

0237 PM     HAIL             2 NW HUDSON             42.44N 92.48W
06/14/2008  M1.00 INCH       BLACK HAWK         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0238 PM     HAIL             7 E MARSHALLTOWN AIRPOR 42.12N 92.79W
06/14/2008  E0.88 INCH       MARSHALL           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL STRIPPING LEAVES OFF TREES. VERY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL.

0240 PM     HAIL             SSE GARWIN              42.09N 92.68W
06/14/2008  E1.00 INCH       TAMA               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS COVERED GROUND

0245 PM     HAIL             1 SW WATERLOO           42.48N 92.36W
06/14/2008  M1.00 INCH       BLACK HAWK         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0247 PM     HAIL             WATERLOO                42.49N 92.35W
06/14/2008  M1.00 INCH       BLACK HAWK         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0250 PM     HAIL             2 E WATERLOO            42.49N 92.30W
06/14/2008  E1.00 INCH       BLACK HAWK         IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LAFAYETTE AND ZUMA STREETS

0251 PM     HAIL             GARWIN                  42.09N 92.68W
06/14/2008  M1.00 INCH       TAMA               IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

0300 PM     HAIL             2 N TOLEDO              42.02N 92.58W
06/14/2008  E1.00 INCH       TAMA               IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ALSO ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.

0316 PM     HAIL             NNE VINING              41.99N 92.39W
06/14/2008  E0.88 INCH       TAMA               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0334 PM     HAIL             5 S EVANSDALE           42.39N 92.27W
06/14/2008  E0.88 INCH       BLACK HAWK         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BMOYER