Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 092317
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
617 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

IAC123-125-092345-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0203.000000T0000Z-080609T2345Z/
MAHASKA IA-MARION IA-
617 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL MARION AND CENTRAL MAHASKA COUNTIES...

AT 615 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HARVEY...OR 33 MILES NORTHWEST OF OTTUMWA...MOVING EAST
AT 14 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LEIGHTON BY 640 PM CDT...
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEACON...7 MILES NORTHWEST OF OSKALOOSA AND 8
  MILES WEST OF UNIVERSITY PARK BY 645 PM CDT...

QUARTER HAIL WAS REPORTED 2 MILES SOUTH OF RED ROCK DAM. 

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO 
WARNING. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED 
ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY 
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4121 9255 4128 9300 4143 9296 4146 9256
      4143 9256 4140 9256 4139 9256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 269DEG 12KT 4133 9289

$$

ALBRECHT

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 092336
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

IAC123-125-092345-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0203.000000T0000Z-080609T2345Z/
MAHASKA IA-MARION IA-
637 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL MARION AND WESTERN MAHASKA COUNTIES...

AT 632 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LEIGHTON...OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST
OF OTTUMWA...MOVING EAST AT 14 MPH.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.
ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY
AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A 
BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4124 9270 4129 9294 4142 9290 4142 9269
      4140 9268 4137 9269 4133 9269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 269DEG 12KT 4133 9280

$$

ALBRECHT

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 092344
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
644 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

IAC123-125-092354-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0203.000000T0000Z-080609T2345Z/
MAHASKA IA-MARION IA-
644 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL MARION AND WEST
CENTRAL MAHASKA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM CDT...

AT 641 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4124 9270 4129 9294 4142 9290 4142 9269
      4140 9268 4137 9269 4133 9269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 269DEG 12KT 4133 9277

$$

ALBRECHT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
235 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...
12 TO 15Z MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING BOUNDARY OVER
WI..IA..KS SOUTHWEST TO OK WITH MOISTURE POOLED SOUTH OF THE FRONT
AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LVL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS CANADA HAS SWUNG EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MN. MAIN FOCUS OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE STATE TODAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 WITH
EVOLUTION OF NEXT LEE SIDE TROUGH EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WED
THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH NEEDED BREAK IN RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING FOR MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH
WHERE SOME SCT THUNDER MAY DEVELOP LATE TUES AFTERNOON ALONG AXIS OF
THETAE ADVECTION. BY TUES NIGHT LLJET BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE
REGION WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE. LOOKS LIKE NOCTURNAL THUNDER
WILL BE ONGOING BY AM HOURS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
STATE WITH POSSIBLE QUICK HIT AT QPF OF .25 TO .50 OR SO OVER THOSE
AREAS BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WEAKENS WITH TIME. AS THE
FORECAST AREA BECOMES CAPPED WITH H700 10C LID...EXPECT MOST OF THE
THUNDER TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNCOMFORTABLE DAY ON THE WAY FOR THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS...THUNDER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. MODELS
AT ODDS ON TIMING OF FRONTAL EXIT...AND FAVOR THE SLOWER EURO/GEM
OVER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
EASTERN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US. TEMPS TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY
WED AS THE WARM SECTOR OVERTAKES THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S AS WELL MAKING FOR UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. CAPE TO RISE OVER 3000 J/KG BY WED PM WITH WEAK CAP OVER
THE AREA. SCT THUNDER STILL A GOOD BET FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS MOST
AREAS. BEST BULK SHEAR WED NIGHT AND THUR BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SVR OUT
AHEAD OF IT. OVER THE WEEKEND THE FLOW TURNS MORE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY. NORMALLY A GOOD THING...BUT SOME INDICATION THAT A
FEW WAVES WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND BRING SCT STORMS
TO THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH WOULD
DECREASE HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES...BUT LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MORE
SCT SVR STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK SYSTEMS WIGGLE SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME. 12Z GFS IS NOW SHOWING A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR SCT STORMS
AFTER THE WED-FRI EVENT...THOUGH THE TIMING IS NOT IN CONCERT WITH
THE OTHER MODELS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS ALWAYS AN ISSUE
AFTER 5 DAYS. AT LEAST THE PATTERN CHANGING TO A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME
PROVIDED THE SOUTHWEST US RIDGE DOES NOT BULGE NORTH AND INTENSIFY
THE WESTERLIES. TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED HAVE BEEN DECREASED WITH
EXPECTED DROP IN THICKNESS...AND LIKELIHOOD THAT EITHER MORE CLOUDS
OR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...09/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS WL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACRS CNTRL IA THROUGH THE
PERIODS WITH WESTERLY SFC FLO.

&&

 .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
536 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-101100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
536 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE ARE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IOWA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS QUITE LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IT IS AGAIN RATHER LOW.

MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN THE FORM OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINS
MAY OCCUR AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF IOWA.
WITH SOILS QUITE SATURATED ANY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH MAY EXCEED
SEVERAL INCHES LOCALLY...MAY CAUSE EXISTING FLOODING TO PERSIST OR
WORSEN OR DEVELOP IN OTHER AREAS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXIST IN SOME PARTS OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS YET TO BE DETERMINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

SMALL