Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
141 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC LOW OVR NRN PLAINS GENERATING SOME SCT CONVECTION EARLY
THIS AFTN. ANTICIPATING AN UPR LVL S/WV TO CATCH UP WITH THE SFC
SYSTEM THIS EVE AND SPREAD CONVECTION EWD AS SFC RIDGE RETREATS TO
THE E. SHARPENING SFC CFNT THEN PUSHES SEWD PROVIDING A LOLVL FOCUS
FOR OVNGT CONVECTION. LOLVL JET EXPECTED TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING THRU THE NIGHT. HAVE RAISED 1ST PD POPS TO
HIGH CHC CATEGORY. SLGT RISK FOR SVR TSTMS IN NRN MN STILL LOOKS
RSNBL. SEE SWODY 1 FOR DETAILS. FNTL BNDRY REMAINS IN VCNTY SRN
MN/WI THRU END OF THE WEEK FOR CONTINUED CHCS OF CONVECTION IN EVERY
PD OF THE FCST. LOOKING FOR A BRIEF BREAK ON SAT AS LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATE UPR RIDGE BUILDING...BUT THIS IS FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
ANOTHER STRONG S/WV ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING KINL...BY 21Z-22Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN
SPREAD EAST AND AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...THROUGH ABOUT 8Z-10Z.
PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN FORM LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING...AND THEN CLEAR OUT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. AS A LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...AVERAGING AROUND
35 KTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AT KDLH AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  77  56  73 /  40  20  30  30
INL  52  79  58  77 /  40  20  20  30
BRD  57  87  62  80 /  20  20  30  40
HYR  57  87  63  78 /  20  30  30  50
ASX  56  77  59  75 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

04/LILES/MJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
809 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-151030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
809 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BRAINERD TO ASHLAND.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT.

SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A TWIN PORTS TO CASS LAKE
LINE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NORTHLAND TO
KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-151030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
809 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BRAINERD TO ASHLAND.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT.

SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A TWIN PORTS TO CASS LAKE LINE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NORTHLAND TO
KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...AND THEY MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON TO POSE A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES AROUND THE TWIN PORTS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND THERE MAY BE TIMES WHEN WINDS
INCREASE ENOUGH AND CREATE RIP CURRENTS FROM THE TWIN PORTS...EAST
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

MELDE