Severe Thunderstorm Warning 330, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 220423
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1123 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

KSC145-165-220445-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0330.000000T0000Z-081022T0445Z/
RUSH KS-PAWNEE KS-
1123 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN PAWNEE AND EASTERN RUSH COUNTIES...

AT 1119 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF BURDETT...MOVING EAST AT 22 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BURDETT...
  ROZEL...
  SANFORD...
  ASH VALLEY...
  RURAL RESIDENCES OF EASTERN RUSH AND NORTHERN PAWNEE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3869 9904 3827 9904 3815 9905 3811 9956
      3836 9955
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 253DEG 19KT 3820 9944

$$

RITTERLING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH WIND POTENTIAL AS A FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.

EARLY IN THE SHIFT, AFTER LOOKING AT A FEW MODELS AND ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS, IT APPEARED A HIGH WIND WARNING MIGHT BE NEEDED LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  THE GRADIENT FORCES AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW PROMPTED ME TO GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE A HWW, FROM 22/06Z-23/00Z FOR THE AREA WEST OF A WAKEENEY
TO DODGE CITY TO COLDWATER LINE.  THE WIND SPEEDS COULD BE
MARGINALLY AT THE WARNING CRITERIA, BUT THOUGHT A WARNING VS
ADVISORY WAS THE SAFER WAY TO GO.  IN MY EASTERN ZONES, AN ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOLLOWING ICTS LEAD AFTER 12Z WED AND UNTIL 06Z
WED NT.

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 19Z SHOWED A WARM FRONT PUSHING
NORTH THROUGH MY WESTERN MOST ZONES, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING AND
DEVELOPING FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO UTAH.  A SURFACE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT FROM JUST WEST OF
SYRACUSE, KS SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 130KT JET COMING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE.  AS THE COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS CONVERGING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN WESTERN KANSAS, THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS,
WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.  THE MAIN HAZARD SHOULD BE HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS, WITH A SECONDARY RISK FOR WIND GUST OVER 60 MPH.
ATTM, DO NOT THINK ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL GET GOING IN OUR CWA
PRIOR OT 8 PM CDT, AND THEY SHOULD FORM FIRST IN FAR WESTERN PARTS
WHERE SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN THE BEST.  THE BEST FORCING SHOULD BE
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MORE QPF AS A RESULT OF BETTER
LIFT.  THINK THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SEE OVER 1/2-INCH OF RAIN
AND THE REST LESS THEN 1/2-INCH OF RAIN.  CATEGORICAL POPS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PASSING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOWER TO CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.  SO, BUMPED THE POPS UP ON WEDNESDAY TO HIGH CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN.  TEMPERATURES STAYED NEARLY THE SAME AS WERE IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, 40S TONIGHT, NOT MUCH RISE WED IN PRECIP AND
CLOUDS, THEN LOWER 30S NW TO UPPER 30S SE WED NT, AND AN EVEN
COLDER DAY THURSDAY IN THE THICK OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE.

DAYS 3-7...

A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS KANSAS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN
BUILDING AND TAKING CONTROL ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WESTERN KANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM A LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. ON FRIDAY
MORNING, TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL BE DOWN NEAR 0C ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA. AS A RESULT, SURFACE LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 30S(F). A
POSSIBLE ISSUE WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER LOW MOVES WITH
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH. IF IT MOVES
FAR ENOUGH EAST, A FEW UPPER 20S(F) WONT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
OUR NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WOULD BE DECREASING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT H85 RANGING FROM
THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS(C) EAST TO THE LOWER TEENS(C) WEST. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WEST CONTINUES TO BUILD, EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES BACK UP NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLAN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY AROUND 12Z. EXPECT PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...MAINLY
AFTER 02Z. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  47  34  46 /  90  40  20  20
GCK  40  47  32  46 /  90  40  20  20
EHA  40  51  32  53 /  40  10  10  20
LBL  40  50  33  51 /  50  20  10  20
HYS  40  43  34  41 /  90  40  40  40
P28  47  53  39  48 /  70  80  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

FN12/32/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-221000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1228 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008 /1128 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL
CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT AS IT PASSES. LARGE HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

ADDITIONALLY, VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
SCOTT CITY TO JOHNSON CITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND NORTHWEST
OF A WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE LINE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AS HIGH
AS 60 MPH WILL LAST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WEST OF A
WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY TO COLDWATER LINE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL ABATE SOME WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
PULLS EASTWARD AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. MORE LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1007 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     TSTM WND GST     SCOTT CITY              38.48N 100.91W
10/21/2008  E65 MPH          SCOTT              KS   STORM CHASER

            THE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 TO 70 MPH.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1021 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     HAIL             S AMY                   38.45N 100.60W
10/21/2008  E1.00 INCH       LANE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL IS COVERING THE GROUND AND KNOCKING LEAVES OFF OF
            TREES.

&&

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1028 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N GARDEN CITY         38.01N 100.87W
10/21/2008  M67 MPH          FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1029 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HAIL             2 W DIGHTON             38.48N 100.50W
10/21/2008  E1.00 INCH       LANE               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MGERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1046 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             8 N BIG BOW             37.68N 101.56W
10/21/2008  E1.00 INCH       STANTON            KS   PUBLIC

            HAIL WAS ESTIMATED FROM NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZE AND WINDS
            WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 MPH.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1056 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 NE HICKOK             37.64N 101.13W
10/21/2008  E60 MPH          GRANT              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MB