Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 140550
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1250 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

KSC055-069-101-171-140615-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0301.000000T0000Z-080814T0615Z/
SCOTT KS-LANE KS-FINNEY KS-GRAY KS-
1250 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN GRAY...FINNEY...SOUTHERN LANE AND SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT
COUNTIES...

AT 1249 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
4 MILES EAST OF GARDEN CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LAT...LON 3840 10025 3811 10024 3780 10048 3775 10095
      3817 10110 3847 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 330DEG 31KT 3797 10078

$$

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 140612
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
112 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

KSC055-069-101-171-140622-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0301.000000T0000Z-080814T0615Z/
SCOTT KS-LANE KS-FINNEY KS-GRAY KS-
112 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GRAY...FINNEY...
SOUTHERN LANE AND SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 115 AM
CDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO
LIFE OR PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FINNEY...NORTHWESTERN GRAY...SOUTHEASTERN
SCOTT AND SOUTHERN LANE COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3840 10025 3811 10024 3780 10048 3775 10095
      3817 10110 3847 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0612Z 330DEG 31KT 3781 10066

$$

GERARD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST DECISION COMES TONIGHT ON WHEN AND WHERE SEVERE
STORMS MIGHT FORM.  THE SECOND PHASE OF DECISION MAKING IS THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE.  THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE FOR TONIGHT.  THINK WITH A LOT
OF CLEARING EARLY TODAY AND A LONG PERIOD OF SURFACE HEATING, THE
LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE DE-STABILIZED MORE AND MORE AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSED.  WILL MENTION LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN MY WESTERN THIRD CWA THIS EVENING, AND SPREAD THAT SEVERE
POSSIBLE WORDING EAST TO NEARLY ALL THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW IS BOTH DISCERNIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
FORECAST BY NEARLY EVERY MODEL TO MOVE AND DEEPEN AND BE OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DIG
AND MOVE ACROSS KANSAS AS A CUT OFF LOW THROUGH FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
SINCE THE STEERING UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH, THIS SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME DECENT PRECIP (QPF) TO WESTERN
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, AND THE BEST TIMING FOR CROSSING OUR CWA WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  THIS FRONT WILL ADD GOOD LIFT TO
THE MOISTURE IN PLACE, AND BE UNDER THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST.  WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TRW/TRW-
THURSDAY NIGHT AND KEEP 40-50 CHANCE POPS GOING ON FRIDAY. JUST WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL END UP IS HARD TO PINPOINT, BUT FOR NOW
THINK THE NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES WILL END UP WITH MORE RAINFALL DUE
TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE MODELS ARE
KEYING ON THE LOW LEVEL WARM TEMP AND MORE MOIST RH FIELDS.  THIS
POINTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES RECEIVING THE MOST RAIN. WILL
BUMP UP QPF IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES STAYED PRETTY MUCH AS BEFORE.  WARM THURSDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, THEN A SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY,
RAINY CONDITIONS.  FRIDAY HIGHS SHOULD VARY FROM 75 AT GCK AND HYS
TO 81 AT P28.

DAYS 3-7...

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES
TODAY. ALL MODELS DROP AN UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVE THE FEATURE INTO KS/OK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET AND
ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 144 HRS AND WERE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM. PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD LIFT ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. POPS WERE RAISED FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PERSIST EVEN INTO TUESDAY IN
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE DRAMATICALLY IMPACTED BY THE TIMING OF THICK
CLOUDS AND PRECIP. BUT A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO MID 80S EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY. MAXES COULD BE
LOWER GIVEN EXPECTED PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLE LOW
CLOUDINESS. GIVEN EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S,
LOWS ARE EASIER TO PREDICT THAN THE HIGHS.  AFTER THE SURFACE FRONT
PASSES, SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A BIG CONCERN. BUT LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. OF COURSE VSBYS AND CIGS
WOULD BE MUCH LOWER UNDER THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  87  62  78 /  40  30  70  40
GCK  62  85  61  75 /  40  50  60  40
EHA  64  86  61  76 /  30  40  60  40
LBL  64  87  62  77 /  30  20  70  40
HYS  63  84  63  75 /  40  50  60  50
P28  67  89  65  81 /  40  10  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN12/24/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1154 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-141700-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1154 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2008 /1054 AM MDT WED AUG 13 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM JOHNSON TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS. THIS
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT TO AS FAR EAST AS A
LINE FROM LARNED TO COLDWATER. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 70 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH
SEVERE LEVELS ONCE AGAIN WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM THE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2008

KSZ043-044-140530-
LANE-SCOTT-
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LANE AND SCOTT COUNTIES...

AT 1143 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF MODOC...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 39
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3869 10049 3826 10051 3826 10111 3870 10112
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 308DEG 34KT 3856 10109

GERARD