Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
446 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...WITH IKE NOW RACING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOSING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...FOCUS SHIFTS TO A BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE COAST. MOISTURE POOLING OUT AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CREATING IMPRESSIVE PWAT TOTALS...AND WITH
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND MOISTURE POOLING FROM
ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS TO
PROVIDE FAIR TO GOOD COVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

HAVE STAGGERED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM WEST TO EAST GIVEN WHERE MODELS
FOCUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY GIVEN PROJECTED HEIGHT FIELD.

BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST...THEN
STALL OUT AND EVENTUALLY DIMINISH. ALTHOUGH NOT A COLD FRONT...THE
PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL DROP HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...THE NORTHWEST GULF IS SLOWLY RETURNING TO NORMAL AFTER
IKES DEPARTURE. WILL CARRY THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND SCA
UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 7AM...THEN LET HEADLINES DROP AS WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH. MAY NEED ANOTHER SCA TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM HOWEVER AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
LONG TERM WILL BE HOW LONG TO KEEP THE PRECIP CHANCES GOING AND HOW
HIGH TO GO WITH POPS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES)
AND SOME OVERRUNNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AT MOST CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA AND COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH AS THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER. DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL RETURN THE TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
BRINGING WITH IT A GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  72  83  64  85  /  70  50  40  20  10
VICTORIA          91  67  84  61  85  /  70  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            94  72  82  65  89  /  80  60  40  20  10
ALICE             93  71  84  62  85  /  70  50  40  20  10
ROCKPORT          91  72  83  66  83  /  70  50  40  20  10
COTULLA           91  69  83  61  87  /  60  40  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        93  71  83  62  85  /  70  60  40  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       90  74  83  69  84  /  70  60  40  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

JV/71...SHORT TERM
KR/97...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
555 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-151100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
555 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL FOCUS ON VERY
MOIST AIR OVER THE COASTAL BEND TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AS STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT LOCAL PONDING
OF WATER OR SLOW DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY AFFECTS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

.LONG TERM FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR
OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.