Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
352 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO S TX
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AT THIS TIME. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION. CONVECTION
CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROF THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND MAINLY BE CONFINED THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE HIGH POPS THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE AND
DEEP AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH. AS
THE SFC COLD FRONT AND 850 TROF MIGRATE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH MODEL TREND OF STRATIFIED POPS FROM LOWER TO
HIGHER IN A NORTH TO SOUTH FASHION WITH THIS AFOREMENTIONED
REASONING.

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN WL BE HOW LONG TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING
AND HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS FOR MONDAY. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
THE COASTAL TROF FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE 850 MB AXIS SHIFTING OFF
TO LOUISIANA TO THE LAGUNA MADRE. THUS WILL MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH THE ISOLD
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SCT COVERAGE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH THE COASTAL TROF PUSHING OFF EASTWARD. DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS DESCENDING
INTO THE 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 59 WITH TOKEN 10 GHOST
POPS DURING THE AFTN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES TAPPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION WITH PWATS PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 1 INCH BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY PER NAM...GFS KEEPS PWATS A BIT HIGHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVG TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WILL SLOWLY REBOUND TO NEAR CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A
RETURNED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE FOR
THE WEEKEND WHERE 20% POPS HAVE BEEN MENTIONED.

&&

.MARINE...SCEC FLAGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF SHORE. A POST FRONTAL MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. GENERAL
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO
END OF THIS WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROF TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TIDE LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 3FT MSL BUT LINGER AROUND 2
FT MSL CURRENTLY CAUSING MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FOR LOW LYING
AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  83  64  85  62  /  50  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          68  84  59  85  60  /  40  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  84  65  89  64  /  60  20  20  10  10
ALICE             71  84  62  85  62  /  50  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  83  66  83  66  /  50  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           68  83  61  87  60  /  40  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  83  62  85  62  /  60  20  30  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       75  83  69  84  69  /  60  20  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...NONE.

GM...NONE.

&&

SC/70...SHORT TERM
RG/82...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
555 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-151100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
555 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL FOCUS ON VERY
MOIST AIR OVER THE COASTAL BEND TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AS STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT LOCAL PONDING
OF WATER OR SLOW DRAINAGE IS POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY AFFECTS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

.LONG TERM FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR
OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
543 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

TXZ239-142345-
WEBB-
543 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING WEBB COUNTY...

AT 533 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAREDO COUNTRY CLUB...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAREDO COMMUNITY COLLEGE BY 550 PM CDT.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME ARE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT
UNTIL 845 PM FOR THE LAREDO AREA.

MJG