Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 232039
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
439 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

OHC043-077-123-143-147-232045-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-080623T2045Z/
SENECA OH-HURON OH-SANDUSKY OH-OTTAWA OH-ERIE OH-
439 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN ERIE AND NORTHWESTERN HURON COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...AND SOUTH CENTRAL OTTAWA...SANDUSKY AND NORTHEASTERN SENECA
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST OHIO...

AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MONROEVILLE...OR ABOUT NEAR NORWALK...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 39 MPH.

THERE WAS A REPORT OF DIME SIZE HAIL.


LAT...LON 4154 8299 4152 8289 4153 8288 4150 8280
      4149 8281 4146 8277 4147 8268 4146 8263
      4140 8253 4113 8282 4136 8330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 309DEG 34KT 4115 8254

$$

FITZ

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 232046
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
446 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

OHC043-077-123-143-147-232056-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0129.000000T0000Z-080623T2045Z/
SENECA OH-HURON OH-SANDUSKY OH-OTTAWA OH-ERIE OH-
446 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN ERIE AND NORTHWESTERN
HURON COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...AND SOUTH CENTRAL OTTAWA...
SANDUSKY AND NORTHEASTERN SENECA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST OHIO EXPIRES
AT 445 PM EDT...

LAT...LON 4154 8299 4152 8289 4153 8288 4150 8280
      4149 8281 4146 8277 4147 8268 4146 8263
      4140 8253 4113 8282 4136 8330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 309DEG 34KT 4115 8254

$$

FITZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
335 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AND SURFACE BASED TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL PERSIST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ONCE AGAIN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO DAY TIME HEATING...INSTABILITY DUE TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AND UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PVA. TRIGGER TEMPERATURE WAS 71 DEGREES AND
ONCE THAT TEMPERATURE WAS REACHED...CUMULUS CLOUDS BEGAN TO FORM
OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPED AFTER TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE BEING REACHED.

ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. THERE MAY BE A FEW CASES WHERE WIND MAY
BE A THREAT. JUST SPOKE TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER BY PHONE
AND THEY DECIDED THAT THEY WOULD NOT ISSUE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THIS EVENING OVER OUR AREA DUE TO MINIMAL THREAT FROM
HAIL. LOCAL OFFICE HERE WILL HANDLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WARNINGS AS NEEDED.

UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING
THE NIGHT. LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING WILL HELP DIMINISH DIURNAL
NATURE OF CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL END
RATHER EARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT
WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY.

COOL AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...COLD
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL COME TO AN END IN THE WEST TOMORROW
MORNING. BASED ON 850 TEMPERATURES OF 8 TO 9 DEGREES C...ADJUSTED
MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE AND
COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE
REGION. SOME GRADUAL WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS COOL AIR IN PLACE BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE EAST.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

ADJUSTED MAV AND ADJUSTED GFS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH
MID LEVEL WARM AIR TAKING PLACE SLOWLY OVER THE REGION BEFORE TRUE
STRONG WARM FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES.
THE GFS IS NOW COMING AROUND TO MORE OF A ECMWF SOLUTION...TIMING
ARE STILL ISSUES. THE DIGEX IS DRY FRIDAY. NONE THE LESS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. WARM FRONT FRIDAY AND COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AND A TROF SUNDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO DRY THINGS
OUT BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS DOES NOT.  THE GFS TRIES TO
SLOW THE FRONT OFF AND THAT WOULD LINGER THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MONDAY THE ECMWF HAS A LITTLE QPF
IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ATTM...WILL KEEP IT
DRY...GFS AGREES WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  WENT CLOSE TO HPC
AND MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. COLD
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW WIDESPREAD THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE. AT THIS
TIME FEELING THAT THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE THUNDERSTORMS NON VFR
CONDITIONS. THE BIG THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
SO LOW NEAR 9000 FEET. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A LITTLE ON THE EDGE ABOUT THE FOG
THREAT FOR TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE BUT THE DEW POINTS
WONT BE DROPPING MUCH. ANY FOG WOULD BE BRIEF.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THE MODELS
START SPREADING A THREAT BACK IN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. NON VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS SO
REASONABLY CONFIDENT IN OVERALL FORECAST. PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL
BE A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL VEER WINDS WITH
THEIR PASSAGE. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THESE WEAK
FEATURES.  IN GENERAL LIGHT AND CHANGEABLE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH TUE
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTH THEN SW FLOW WILL SET
UP TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH WIND SPEEDS PROBABLY INTO A 10 TO 15
KNOTS RANGE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
520 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-240930-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
520 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE FROM LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

KUBINA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
311 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             5 E MOUNT VERNON        40.39N 82.38W
06/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       KNOX               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND IN APPLE VALLEY.

0230 PM     HAIL             1 E CENTERBURG          40.30N 82.68W
06/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       KNOX               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0255 PM     HAIL             6 E JEFFERSON           41.74N 80.65W
06/23/2008  E0.88 INCH       ASHTABULA          OH   PUBLIC

0305 PM     HAIL             ANDOVER                 41.61N 80.57W
06/23/2008  E0.88 INCH       ASHTABULA          OH   PUBLIC

&&

KIELTYKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
339 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     HAIL             CANFIELD                41.03N 80.77W
06/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       MAHONING           OH   PUBLIC

&&

KIELTYKA