Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 231934
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
334 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

OHC099-155-232015-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-080623T2015Z/
MAHONING OH-TRUMBULL OH-
334 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN TRUMBULL AND NORTHEASTERN MAHONING COUNTIES...

AT 332 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOARDMAN MOVING EAST AT 16 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
POLAND...STRUTHERS...CAMPBELL...LOWELLVILLE AND HUBBARD

HAIL UP TO 0.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED IN CANFIELD 
WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE 
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4096 8074 4111 8079 4122 8052 4115 8052
      4114 8051 4101 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 249DEG 14KT 4106 8069

$$

WILLARD

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 231950
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
350 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

OHC099-155-232000-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-080623T2015Z/
MAHONING OH-TRUMBULL OH-
350 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TRUMBULL AND
NORTHEASTERN MAHONING COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4096 8074 4111 8079 4122 8052 4115 8052
      4114 8051 4101 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 249DEG 14KT 4108 8061

$$

WILLARD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1249 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND THEN DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED TO CHANGE THE WORDING TO SCATTERED BASED ON A LITTLE DRIER
AIR ALOFT. THE COLDEST PART OF THE TROF AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE OF DAYS EXPECT THIS TYPE OF
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS VERY COOL UPPER TROUGH ROTATES
ACROSS AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS TODAY.
TEMPS ALOFT VERY COOL WITH 500 MB READINGS PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
NEG 16 TO 18 TODAY. AS A RESULT...LAPSE RAPES WILL BE VERY STEEP
WITH MOST UNSTABLE LAYER CAPES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. AREA WILL
AGAIN BE OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILE. HAIL WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MARGINAL. WILL BUMP POPS TO
LIKELY ALL AREAS TODAY. IN BETWEEN SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE WILL
BE SOME SUN. GIVEN CURRENT OBS...DOESN/T APPEAR FOG WILL BE A
WIDESPREAD PROBLEM THIS AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT REGION AND WILL NEED TO KEEP PRECIP
MENTION ALL AREAS FOR THE START OF THE TONIGHT FORECAST. QUICK
LOOK AT CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THERE IS PRETTY RAPID
CLEARING BEHIND TROUGH. THUS EXPECT THE EVENING TO START OUT WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP WITH RAPID CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN. TUESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH LATEST NAM AND ECMWF PUSH RIDGE TO THE EAST
COAST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH ALLOWS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO
THE LOCAL AREA. BOTH ALSO DEVELOP PRECIP OVER AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS REMAINS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING RIDGE OFF TO
THE E WHICH SLOWS PRECIP ONSET. FOR NOW WILL USE A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION WITH JUST SMALL POPS IN THE WEST...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT. GUID TEMPS HAVE BEEN
DECENT LATELY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL
DIFFS PREVAIL AND TOUGH TO PICK OUT A DRY PERIOD. NEW PACKAGE WILL BE
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL SLOWLY BUILD DURING PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE WARMER THAN
FORECAST TEMPS WOULD APPEAR TO INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY. COLD
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW WIDESPREAD THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE. AT THIS
TIME FEELING THAT THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE THUNDERSTORMS NON VFR
CONDITIONS. THE BIG THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
SO LOW NEAR 9000 FEET. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW A LITTLE ON THE EDGE ABOUT THE FOG
THREAT FOR TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE BUT THE DEW POINTS
WONT BE DROPPING MUCH. ANY FOG WOULD BE BRIEF.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THE MODELS
START SPREADING A THREAT BACK IN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. NON VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WAVES 2 FEET OF LESS MOST OF THE TIME.   CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LAKE TODAY HOWEVER AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE AREA.  TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...TK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
520 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-240930-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
520 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE FROM LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

KUBINA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
934 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             CLINTON                 40.93N 81.63W
06/22/2008  M0.75 INCH       SUMMIT             OH   PUBLIC

0335 PM     HAIL             MARSEILLES              40.70N 83.39W
06/22/2008  M0.75 INCH       WYANDOT            OH   PUBLIC

0408 PM     HAIL             MOUNT VERNON            40.39N 82.48W
06/22/2008  M0.75 INCH       KNOX               OH   PUBLIC

0555 PM     HAIL             KELLEYS ISLAND          41.60N 82.71W
06/22/2008  M0.75 INCH       ERIE               OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0525 PM     HAIL             VERMILION               41.41N 82.32W
06/22/2008  M0.75 INCH       LORAIN             OH   PUBLIC

0148 PM     HAIL             STRONGSVILLE            41.31N 81.83W
06/22/2008  M1.75 INCH       CUYAHOGA           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0342 PM     HAIL             2 E WOOSTER             40.82N 81.89W
06/22/2008  M0.75 INCH       WAYNE              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0429 PM     HAIL             MOUNT VERNON            40.39N 82.48W
06/22/2008  M0.50 INCH       KNOX               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WILLARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
311 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             5 E MOUNT VERNON        40.39N 82.38W
06/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       KNOX               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND IN APPLE VALLEY.

0230 PM     HAIL             1 E CENTERBURG          40.30N 82.68W
06/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       KNOX               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0255 PM     HAIL             6 E JEFFERSON           41.74N 80.65W
06/23/2008  E0.88 INCH       ASHTABULA          OH   PUBLIC

0305 PM     HAIL             ANDOVER                 41.61N 80.57W
06/23/2008  E0.88 INCH       ASHTABULA          OH   PUBLIC

&&

KIELTYKA