Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
404 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION BROKE OUT IN SE SC EARLY THIS AFTN AND GRADUALLY
PROPAGATED E...WHICH CONFIRMED WHAT THE NAM/WRF OUTLINED BY HAVING
CAPE/MOISTURE POOLING AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC AND UPR
LEVEL TROF AXES. AS THE CONVECTION PERSISTED...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND THE SEABREEZE HELPED THE CONVECTION DROP SW THROUGH THE CWFA.
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS HAVE PRODUCED
HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLD SEVERE STORMS. AM CONCERNED THAT
CONVECTION HAS NOT YET BROKEN OUT TO ANY GREAT DEGREE IN SE
GA AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE THICKER
CLOUD COVER THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THIS AREA ALL DAY WHILE
COASTAL AREAS HAD VERY GOOD DAYTIME HEATING TO EXACERBATE THE
INSTABILITY WHILE WORKING WITH THE STALLED SFC TROF OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG AND E OF THE
I95 CORRIDOR SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE WORKING SW...CONVECTION LOOKS
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER SE GA BUT THE STRENGTH OF
THE STORMS WILL BE QUESTIONABLE DUE TO THE LACK OF PROLONGED
HEATING EARLIER. BY LATE TNGT...CONVECTION SHOULD END AS THE AREA
WILL BE FAIRLY WORKED OVER. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT FOG COULD
DEVELOP SHOULD ENOUGH CLEARING OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL TDA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NEED TO LET NEXT
SHIFT EVALUATE ANY CLEARING TRENDS.

TEMP TRENDS BETWEEN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE REMAINED RAINFREE AND
WARM WITH THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RAIN COOLED WILL EVENTUALLY
MERGE LATE TNGT...ALLOWING MIN TEMPS TO FALL TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED STALLED TROF AXIS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY MON OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL WORK WITHIN THE CONTINUED
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXPECTED AFTN SEABREEZE TO AGAIN PRODUCE SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OVER SC TDA...AM NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF BOTH COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF
STORMS IN SE SC TMRW WHILE SE GA LOOKS TO SEE MORE STORMS ALONG
WITH POSSIBLY STRONG STORMS. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
CATEGORY FOR ALL AREAS TRENDING HIGHER FROM N TO S. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW-END LIKELY POPS
WILL SUFFICE. THE TROF SHOULD LOSE MUCH OF ITS INFLUENCE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THUS ALLOWING MOST PRECIP AREAS TO SHUT DOWN
GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN RUN WARM...INTO THE MID-UPR 80S...AS WILL
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S. PWATS WILL AGAIN EXCEED 1.5 INCHES
AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN RUN HIGH /CAPES OVER 1500 J/KG AND LI/S
LESS THAN -4/ FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BUT LACK OF COVERAGE
PREVENTS ANY HIGHLIGHTING ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANNELED VORT EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA ON TUE AFTERNOON
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE EVENING. DESPITE
WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME
MOISTENING OF THE PROFILE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING
MUCH OF SOUTHERN SC. WITH A SEABREEZE CRANKING UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL INCREASE A BIT AND
TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARMING. A SMALL
AREA COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG/SEVERE...WHERE THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AIR COINCIDES
WITH THE UPPER ENERGY AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS IN SOUTHERN SC WITH SLIGHT CHANCE JUST SW. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE.

WARM DRY PATTERN IN STORE FOR WED THROUGH EARLY FRI AS THE AREA WILL
BE SITUATED ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. AFTERNOON/EVENING PULSE
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD FRI THROUGH SUN AS UPPER
PATTERN MIGRATES TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AND A FRONT EVENTUALLY DROPS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER/ARND KCHS WHILE ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSAV. FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 18Z TAF
SET...SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT AROUND KCHS THAN KSAV
ALTHOUGH HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH SITES. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE NEAR BOTH SITES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER 04Z.

ONCE THE RAIN ENDS AND WINDS DIE DOWN LATE...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
MVFR GROUND FOG LATE. AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE
HELD OFF ITS INCLUSION ATTM. VFR CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL AFTER
DAYBREAK TMRW...BUT CONVECTION IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND MIDDAY
TMRW SO HAVE INCLUDED CB MENTION FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS MON AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF CONVECTION.
VFR LOOKS LIKELY MON NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM ANY CONVECTION CREATING AGITATED CONDITIONS...NO
APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE TO CREATE CONDITIONS
REACHING SCA LEVELS. WINDS WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 15 KT THROUGH
TMRW AND SEAS WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 4 FT.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. PRETTY GOOD
NOCTURNAL SURGE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
BUT THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
QUIET CONDITIONS WED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

JRL/JPC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
431 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-161000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
431 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A SEA BREEZE...AND AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALONG WITH A
VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

GAZ088-101-SCZ040-042-152045-
ALLENDALE-EFFINGHAM-HAMPTON-SCREVEN-
402 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EFFINGHAM COUNTY...SCREVEN
COUNTY...ALLENDALE COUNTY AND HAMPTON COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 359 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MIDDLEGROUND...OR ABOUT 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SYLVANIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

AREAS IN AND AROUND BARTON...BRUNSON...ESTILL...FAIRFAX...FURMAN...
GIFFORD...HAMPTON...LENA...LURAY...SCOTIA...SHIRLEY...HUNTERS AND
NEWINGTON WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 445 PM EDT.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED
BUILDING.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE
AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED
TREES...LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THUNDERBOLT             32.03N 81.05W
06/15/2008                   CHATHAM            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            E.M. REPORTED TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE AT WATERS AVE AND
            70TH. NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES REPORTED. SMALL HAIL OF
            UNKNOWN SIZE ALSO OBSERVED.

&&

JRL

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