Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRES TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NW ON TUE AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL
THEN BUILD IN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY LINE UP RATHER
WELL WITH BOTH NAM AND LOCAL WRF MOISTURE PROGS. DEEPER MOISTURE
IS LINING UP WITH SFC AND H5 TROF AXES THAT OVER THE SC MIDLANDS
AND CSRA THAT WILL SIHFT TO THE COAST THIS AFTN AND EVE. COMBINING
THESE FEATURES WITH A MODEST SEABREEZE AND THE LOW-MID LVL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES TO PRODUCE SCT SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTN...BUT THE QUESTION
BECOMES WHICH OF SC OR GA WILL SEE THE BETTER COVERAGE ALONG WITH
STRONGER STORMS. ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE LAST
FEW RUNS OF SHOWING CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AWAY FROM THE
COAST...BUT THE NAM SHOWS A STRONGER VORT MAX COMING OUT OF AL
THROUGH SRN GA WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER VORT MAX OVER
UPSTATE SC SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. ALSO UNNERVING IS THAT BOTH NAM
AND RUC INDICATE A POOLING OF MUCH HIGHER SBCAPES /1800-2500 J/KG/
OVER COASTAL SC WHICH WOULD MEAN BETTER INSTABILITY WITH WHICH THE
APPROACHING SFC TROF CAN WORK. THE POOLING OF CAPES MATCHES UP
WITH THE MODIFIED 12Z KCHS RAOB THAT INDICATES OVER 2500 J/KG
SBCAPE. OF COURSE...HAVING ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THIS MORNING OVER
COASTAL LOCALES IS ANOTHER FACTOR...SO AM STILL THINKING THERE
WILL BE GOOD COVERAGE ALONG AND E OF I95 IN SE SC WHILE SE GA
SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE THROUGHOUT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
TROUGH. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AFTN...BUT HAVE
TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE POPS BY DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIP AS
THE RUC/NAM/SREF ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE CURRENT SPARSE
RETURNS ON AREA RADARS.

AS FOR THE STRENGTH OF STORMS...NOT ONLY IS THE SBCAPE POOLING IN
SE SC DISTURBING BUT SO IS THE WBZ OFF THE MODIFIED 12Z KCHS RAOB
WHICH COMES IN AT JUST UNDER 10 KFT WHICH ACTUALLY DOES MATCH UP
RATHER WELL WITH SHORT-TERM MODEL PROGS AROUND 21Z THIS AFTN.
CONSIDERING THAT WBZ/S OF OTHER AREA SOUNDINGS AROUND KCHS ARE
CLOSER TO 12 KFT...THERE MAY BE A BIT GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE
HAIL THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ALONG WITH MICROBURSTS. HOWEVER...
SINCE COVERAGE OF ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED AND THE
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK ALREADY HAS MENTION OF STRONG STORM
HAZARDS... WILL LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE AND MONITOR THE EVOLVING
CONVECTIVE ENVIROMENT.

MAX TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK TO MEET PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED HIGHS BUT
HAVE MODIFIED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE DEEP MOISTURE BELT AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO SE GEORGIA TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY LOSE THEIR INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE
OVERNIGHT BUT THE EVENING COULD FEATURE SOME HEAVY RNFL PRODUCING
STORMS LINGERING ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY TO THE S OF BEAUFORT.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LIKELY NOT THIN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OVER MOST
AREAS...THEN PTCHY FOG MAY FORM AWAY FROM THE COAST TOWARD SUNRISE.
WE ALLOWED LATER SHIFTS TO INVESTIGATE THIS AFTER AFTER CONVECTIVE
PATTERN BECOMES CLEARER LATER TODAY RATHER THAN ADD TO OUR PACKAGE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNING GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. TROUGHING AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS MONDAY...THEN
TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE MONDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK MUCH MORE
INTERESTING AS THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC
FORCING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. GIVEN THE APPROACH OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A
90+ KT H25 JET AND WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6 TO 6.5
C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 45 KT
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...CERTAINLY CAN/T DOWNPLAY THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WITH MAIN
HAZARDS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN QUIETS DOWN QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH...PUSHING HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL THEREFORE RUN WITH A RAIN FREE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE WEEK AND
HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE OR
LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR TO SLIGHT
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER/ARND KCHS WHILE ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KSAV. FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 18Z TAF
SET...SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT AROUND KCHS THAN KSAV
ALTHOUGH HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH SITES. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE NEAR BOTH SITES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER 04Z.

ONCE THE RAIN ENDS AND WINDS DIE DOWN LATE...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
MVFR GROUND FOG LATE. AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE
HELD OFF ITS INCLUSION ATTM. VFR CONDS WILL THEN PREVAIL AFTER
DAYBREAK TMRW...BUT CONVECTION IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND MIDDAY
TMRW SO HAVE INCLUDED CB MENTION FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBILITY OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
MON AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF CONVECTION. VFR LOOKS
LIKELY MON NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO SOLIDLY OFFSHORE IN THE POST-DAWN HOURS
/DIRECTIONS FROM 250-280 DEGREES/ AT AROUND 10 KTS. AS GOOD
HEATING CONTINUES AND THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL BACK TO
MORE OF A SLY COMPONENT BUT REMAIN GENERALLY SW TO SSW WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KT BUT THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO RAISE
SEAS APPRECIABLY. OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. EXPECT FAIRLY STRONG NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES BOTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN
FACT...GRADIENT MIGHT PINCH ENOUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE NEEDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
431 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-161000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
431 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A SEA BREEZE...AND AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALONG WITH A
VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
310 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

GAZ119-SCZ048-051-151945-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL JASPER-
310 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BEAUFORT COUNTY...CHATHAM COUNTY
AND JASPER COUNTY THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 305 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RIVERSIDE...OR ABOUT 7
MILES EAST OF SAVANNAH...MOVING EAST AT 6 MPH.

AREAS IN AND AROUND DAUFUSKIE ISLAND...RIVERSIDE...THUNDERBOLT...
TYBEE ISLAND AND WILMINGTON ISLAND WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 345 PM
EDT.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED
BUILDING.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE
AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED
TREES...LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

33

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
333 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             2 E THUNDERBOLT         32.03N 81.02W
06/15/2008  M1.00 INCH       CHATHAM            GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL
            BETWEEN THUNDERBOLT AND WOODMARSH ISLAND.

&&

JRL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
343 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

GAZ116>119-137>141-152045-
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-INLAND
BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-INLAND LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-LONG-
343 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LONG COUNTY...MCINTOSH COUNTY...
BRYAN COUNTY...LIBERTY COUNTY AND CHATHAM COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM
EDT...

AT 339 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1/2 INCH HAIL...AND
STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FORT MCALLISTER TO TOWNSEND...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES EAST OF RICHMOND HILL TO 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF DARIEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH.

AREAS IN AND AROUND BELFAST...CARNIGAN...COX...CRESCENT...DARIEN...
EULONIA...FORT MCALLISTER...HALFMOON LANDING...JONES...KELLER...
MERIDIAN...PINE HARBOR...RETREAT...RIDGEVILLE...SAPELO ISLAND...
SHELLMAN BLUFF...SOUTH NEWPORT...SUNBURY...TOWNSEND AND VALONA WILL
BE IMPACTED THROUGH 445 PM EDT.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED
BUILDING.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE
AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED
TREES...LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

33