Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW AND MOVE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THIS FRONT OUT OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN
PLACED OVER THE CWA. BEST STORMS MAY REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CAN NOT
RULE OUT SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT. WITH THE VERY STRONG
SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND SUPER CELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AND MAYBE EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ELECTED TO MOVE THE STARTING TIME OF THE LWA UP TO
3 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL RUN IT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH MOVES EAST AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL
RAPIDLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A LARGE AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE
THUNDERTORMS POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS AND VERY STRONG WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTIVITY WILL END ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AGS WHERE THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF OF
SOME MVFR FOG.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
307 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-161000-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
307 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 119 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   TORNADO WATCH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1029 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HAIL             1 ENE NEWBERRY          34.28N 81.60W
03/15/2008  E0.75 INCH       NEWBERRY           SC   PUBLIC

&&

LAMBERTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
300 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>029-031-152100-
CHESTERFIELD-EDGEFIELD-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-LANCASTER-LEE-LEXINGTON-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-RICHLAND-SALUDA-SUMTER-
300 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
CHESTERFIELD...EDGEFIELD...FAIRFIELD...KERSHAW...LANCASTER...LEE...LE
XINGTON...MCCORMICK...NEWBERRY...RICHLAND...SALUDA AND SUMTER
COUNTIES...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A MCCORMICK TO SUMTER
LINE THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY FED INTO THE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LINE MAY PRODUCE
ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. THE
STORMS WILL MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD AT AROUND 50 MPH.

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR UPSTATE...MIDLANDS AND CSRA UNTIL 7
PM THIS EVENING.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA TOLL FREE
AT 1 800 7 7 5 7 1 9 9.