Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
330 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

UPDATED ZONES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 730. HUMPHREY

DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE SITTING OVER ARIZONA NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
MONTANA AND EASTERN IDAHO. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AROUND 1.25
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHICH IS QUITE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL. SHEARING SHORTWAVE KICKING INTO IDAHO THIS
HOUR. STRONG QG FORCING AHEAD THIS FEATURE ALREADY FIRING
CONVECTION OVER IDAHO AT THE MOMENT. THIS STRONG QG FORCING
PROGGED TO SLIDE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MONTANA TONIGHT. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE AREA WITH STRONGEST DYNAMICS. ENERGY OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN WAVE FIRING WEAKER CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
WOULD EXPECT THIS AREA TO FILL INTO TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD
YELLOWSTONE PARK AND SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN QUARTER
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF SEVERE AS SHEAR INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL YIELD HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL.

A SECONDARY SPEED MAX WAS OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AT THE MOMENT.
AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WOULD EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER OUR SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES AND SHIFT
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING
FROM BILLINGS EAST TOWARD MILES CITY ACCORDING TO LAPS DATA. A
THIRD AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A BAND OF CU
WAS ALREADY FORMING OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
A THERMAL RIDGE. THE SPEED MAX MOVING TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL LIKELY TRIGGER INCREASED ASCENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN THERE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS PUSH
STRONGEST CONVECTION NORTH IN AREA OF QG FORCING. WILL KEEP POPS
MENTIONED ALL NIGHT AS CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING QUITE EASILY
RIGHT AROUND THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A DRIER DAY BEHIND THE WAVE. LINGERED
SCATTERED POPS OVER THE EAST AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION...BUT
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A LESS ACTIVE DAY. WEAK 700MB TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...SO KEPT POPS IN FOR
ALL LOCATIONS. THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT SOME AS THE
DEEP MONSOON GETS PUSHED EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THURSDAY TOO AS A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE IF FUTURE MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SWINGING THE ENERGY FARTHER SOUTH.
HUMPHREY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EXTENDED
PERIOD...THOUGH DETAILS STILL SKETCHY CONCERNING POPS.
MAIN CHANGES THIS PACKAGE WERE TO TREND DAYTIME TEMPS UP A BIT
TOWARD WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO END THIS WORK WEEK.
SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER AND FLATTENS RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. RIDGE
SLOWLY REBUILDS NEXT WEEK AND MAY LEAD TO SOME RATHER WARM DAYS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEREFORE BE AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED IS HOW MUCH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
FLUX WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERPLAYING
MONSOONAL PUSH AT TIMES THIS WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION EITHER DUE TO SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE CLIMO POPS TYPE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST AREAS LATE
TODAY THROUGH INTO THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY LARGE
HAIL. VFR WILL PREVAIL...HOWEVER LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/090 062/088 060/091 061/092 060/092 061/092 061/093
    42/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 059/088 052/087 048/089 052/091 051/091 050/089 050/090
    62/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 063/091 062/089 058/092 060/094 058/097 061/097 059/094
    42/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 068/091 063/089 060/091 061/092 061/091 063/093 062/092
    52/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 066/090 062/087 059/089 061/091 060/093 062/093 062/090
    43/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 065/090 060/088 057/089 058/089 059/093 062/091 061/089
    53/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 060/087 057/086 054/088 056/090 055/091 056/091 055/088
    42/T    22/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 730 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 28>42-56>58-63>68.
WY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 730 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

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