Winter Storm Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 031607
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1107 AM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...WINTER STORM APPROACHING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
LIFT TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND WILL BRING A MIX OF SNOW...
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 4 INCHES...THERE MAY BE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SLEET WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXCEED ON HALF INCH OVER MUCH OF THE
WATCH AREA.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-040015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.080304T1700Z-080305T1700Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1107 AM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LATER ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REACH WEST VIRGINIA BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL WRAP WARMER AIR OVER THE COLD AIR AT GROUND LEVEL...AND
A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MIX OF ICY PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
THE WATCH AREA DURING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BY NOON WEDNESDAY. THERE COLD BE
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN A HALF AN INCH OVER THE WATCH AREA
WITH A SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATION AS WELL.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY
TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 031610
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1110 AM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...WINTER STORM APPROACHING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
LIFT TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND WILL BRING A MIX OF SNOW...
 SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 4 INCHES...THERE MAY BE A COUPLE INCHES OF
SLEET WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXCEED ON HALF INCH OVER MUCH OF THE
WATCH AREA.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-040015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.080304T1700Z-080305T1700Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1110 AM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LATER ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REACH WEST VIRGINIA BY TUESDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL WRAP WARMER AIR OVER THE COLD AIR AT GROUND LEVEL...AND
A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MIX OF ICY PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
THE WATCH AREA DURING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BY NOON WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN A HALF AN INCH OVER THE WATCH AREA
WITH A SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATION AS WELL.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY
TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 032051
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008

... A TWO PART WINTER STORM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY AND BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND
THERE MAY BE A FEW INCHES BY NOON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
LIFT NORTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AND REACH NEW YORK
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND SOME CAN BE
HEAVY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT ICING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH A THREAT OF FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-040500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WS.A.0004.080304T1000Z-080305T1700Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
351 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

A TWO PART WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST PART
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK LATER TONIGHT AND REACH CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MORNING. RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY MORNING AND
ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SLIPPERY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY MORNINGS
COMMUTE.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AND LIFT TO NEW YORK STATE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS
WILL BE HEAVY WITH AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
SPECIFY EXACTLY WHERE THE VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL
OCCUR...BUT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SERIOUS ICING. THE
PRECIPITATION MAY EVEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING THERE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY
TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$

SFM

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 040334
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1034 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...A TWO PART WINTER STORM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
RAIN. AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
AND THERE MAY BE A FEW INCHES BY NOON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN LIFT NORTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TUESDAY AND REACH NEW
YORK STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A VARIETY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND
SOME CAN BE HEAVY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT ICING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH A THREAT OF FLOODING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-041145-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.080304T1000Z-080305T1700Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1034 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

A TWO PART WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST PART
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK LATER TONIGHT AND REACH CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MORNING. RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY MORNING AND
ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER BEFORE THE CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.
TEMPERATURES BY THE MORNING COMMUTE ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OR
BELOW FREEZING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA SO ROADS MAY BE
SLIPPERY. 

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY AND LIFT TO NEW YORK STATE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF
THIS WILL BE HEAVY WITH AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE. IT IS
IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY EXACTLY WHERE THE VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES WILL OCCUR...BUT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SERIOUS ICING. THE
PRECIPITATION MAY EVEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING THERE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY
TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$

JJP

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 040958
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
458 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

NYZ019>021-041800-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0004.080304T1000Z-080305T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0006.080304T1000Z-080305T1700Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
458 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

THERE WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
WITH A MINOR GLAZE OF ICE. ROAD CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS
MORNING. 

THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A VARIETY
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY.

SIGNIFICANT...AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF OF
AN INCH TO ONE INCH OR MORE OF ICE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND WET SNOW AT TIMES. A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND WET SNOW COULD BE BENEFICIAL IN
DECREASING THE AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FALLING TREE BRANCHES AND
SNAPPED POWER LINES. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO BE PREPARED FOR
PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO MAKE TRAVEL
ON UNTREATED ROADS DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...
ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION...LET SOMEONE KNOW
YOUR TRAVEL PLANS AND CARRY A CELLULAR PHONE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ001>008-010-011-041800-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0004.080304T1000Z-080305T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0006.080304T1700Z-080305T1700Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA
458 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 12 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 12 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TODAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD A VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY.

SIGNIFICANT...AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE
HALF OF AN INCH OF ICE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND WET SNOW AT TIMES. A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND WET SNOW COULD BE BENEFICIAL IN
DECREASING THE AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COULD BE MORE IF
THE STORM TAKES A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRACK.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FALLING TREE BRANCHES AND
SNAPPED POWER LINES. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO BE PREPARED FOR
POWER OUTAGES. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO MAKE TRAVEL ON
UNTREATED ROADS DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...
ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION...LET SOMEONE KNOW YOUR
TRAVEL PLANS AND CARRY A CELLULAR PHONE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ012>014-085-041800-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0004.080304T1000Z-080305T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0006.080304T1700Z-080305T1700Z/
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
458 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 12 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 12 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


A MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TODAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD A VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY.

SIGNIFICANT...AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA.

PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND WET SNOW AT TIMES. A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND WET SNOW COULD BE BENEFICIAL IN
DECREASING THE AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COULD BE MORE IF
THE STORM TAKES A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRACK.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FALLING TREE BRANCHES AND
SNAPPED POWER LINES. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO BE PREPARED FOR
PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO MAKE TRAVEL
ON UNTREATED ROADS DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...
ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION...LET SOMEONE KNOW
YOUR TRAVEL PLANS AND CARRY A CELLULAR PHONE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU
SHOULD CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE, OR YOU SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

TMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1159 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPID CHANGES WILL BE IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL INCLUDE OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF SPRING
MONDAY...MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTS ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND
A RETURN OF MIDWINTER CHILL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT IS GENERATING SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...AFTER
AN INITIAL PERIOD OF VIRGA AS THE RAIN ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. SINCE AREA TEMPERATURES
APPEAR TO HAVE ALREADY BOTTOMED OUT THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOST OF
THE PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE GENESEE
VALLEY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. WILL LEAVE IN THE
SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT SINCE THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...THERE
ARE NO REAL CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. BUT...THIS SITUATION WILL BE
MONITORED CAREFULLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPRING GIVES US A TEASE ON MONDAY...BUT ITS STAY WILL BE BRIEF.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY...AND WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO +8C OR SO AND A DECENT
MIXING SSW WIND...TEMPS WILL RISE WELL INTO 50S...AND 60 NOT OUT
OF QUESTION IN WARM SPOTS OF GENESEE VALLEY. IMMED BUFFALO AREA A
CLOSE CALL DEPENDING ON WIND DIRECTION. MODELS INSIST ON 210-220
WHICH WOULD ALLOW E SUBURBS TO RISE INTO 50S AS WELL...BUT CITY
AND NEAR THE RIVER WILL BE COOLER DUE TO SOME INFLUENCE OFF ICE
COVERED LAKE ERIE. WILL HOLD OFF SHOWERS FROM APPROACHING FRONT
TILL 6 PM OR SO.

THE FORECAST GETS VERY COMPLICATED FOR THE FOLLOWING 24 TO 36
HOURS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LEANING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER MON NT AND EARLY TUES...THEN STALLING IT JUST TO OUR
EAST AND SOUTH...THEN MAJOR COMPLEX LOW GETS GOING IN THE LOWER
MIDWEST AND LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION DURING TUES AND TUES
NT. WE WILL ALL GET A SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS MON NT WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON
TUESDAY AS FAR EAST AS THE GEN VALLEY. NAM APPEARS OVERDONE WITH
PRECIP ON BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT BUT WILL INCR POPS TO CATEG LATE
AND GO WITH A 1-2 INCH ACCUM TOWARD DAYBREAK TUES ON NIAG FRONTIER
AND NR LAKE ERIE.

THIS PRECIP SHOULD EASE OFF TUES MORNING AS FRONT SLIDES TO NY-PA
BORDER AND STALLS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. NORTHERN AREAS LIKE BUF
AND ROC COULD SEE PRECIP END COMPLETELY FOR MUCH OF TUES...ESP IF
ECMWF AND NAM ARE CORRECT...WHILE IT LINGERS CROSS SRN TIER AS
RAIN...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING TO FZ RAIN LATER IN DAY AS COLD NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES DUE TO LARGE HIGH OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC.

ALL MODELS THEN BRING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE UP FROM TENN VALLEY TO
ABOUT WVA BY TUES EVE AND THEN TAKE IT RIGHT CROSS THE SPINE OF
APPALACHIANS TO NEAR BGM BY 12Z WED. THIS IS AN UNLIKELY
PATH...THE NAM12 MORE REALISTIC IN TAKING AN INITIAL LOW UP W OF
APPALACHIANS TO ERN LK ERIE WHILE DEEPER LOW MOVES UP ACROSS ERN
PA. GFS AND ECMWF DOT HAVE THE RESOLUTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MOUNTAIN BLOCK SO SHOW A BROAD LOW. OUR EXPERIENCE IS THAT LOWS OR
THEIR SFC REFLECTION LIKE TO STAY WEST OF MTNS AND USUALLY WIND UP
FARTHER N AND W THAN MAIN MODELS SHOW...ESPECIALLY THIS WINTER.

IN ANY CASE...COPIOUS QPF WILL SURGE BACK UP ACROSS OUR CWA FROM
LATE TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH TUES NT. PRELIM INDICATIONS ARE FOR AN
INCH OR SO...AND P-TYPE IS A BIG QUESTION. EVEN THE COLDER GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS BRING THICKNESSES TO 546 AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE
EVENT...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS HAS A SUPPRESSED 0C 850 MB ISOTHERM OVER
NIAG FRONTIER (SLEET)...BUT NEARLY ALL THE SREF PLUMES SHOW A MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN AT BUF WITH ALMOST NO SNOW...SO WE CAN ASSUME IT
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT TO PRECLUDE A MAJOR SNOWSTORM IN OUR
AREA. BUT...WITH INCREASING NE SFC WIND TUES EVE...TEMPS SHOULD BE
BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SRN TIER
EARLY ON. THEREFORE WE LOOK FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...CHANGING TO SNOW AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST AFTER
06Z FROM WEST TO EAST. WE COULD SEE A SMALL ACCUM OF SNOW AT END
BUT MAIN PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER AT BUF BY 06-08Z WED AND BY AROUND
12Z WED E OF LK ONTARIO.

THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT A GOOD AMT OF QPF WILL FALL AS LIQUID
TUES PM AND EARLY EVE ACROSS SRN TIER BEFORE COLDER SFC AIR
ARRIVES SO WE MAY SOME HYDRO ISSUES. SEE BELOW.

WITH ALL THIS BEING CONSIDERED...AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH ALL
NEARBY OFFICES...IT WAS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR
NOW. WE NEED AT LEAST 0.5 INCH OF ICE OR 7 INCHES OF SNOW FOR A
WARNING AND BECAUSE OF THE MIX OF EVERYTHING...CONFIDENCE IN
REACHING EITHER CRITERIA IS LOW...IT MAY BE MORE OF AN ADVISORY
EVENT INSTEAD. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.

WED SHOULD SEE IMPROVING WX WITH DRYING AND TEMPS IN L30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO NEW YORK WILL MOVE EAST WITH SOME CLOUDS INCREASING LATER WED NGT
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LKS.

THURSDAY, LOW OVER THE CENTRAL LKS MOVES EAST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHWRS IN THE MRNG AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHWRS THU NGT.

FRIDAY, LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC MOVES NE WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OF
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. A MID LVL SHORT
WAVE MOVING NE ACROSS THE LWR LKS ALNG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND 850
TEMPS OF -4 TO -10C LWRING TO -12 TO -16C BRINGS INCREASING THREAT
OF SOME LK EEFECT SNOW SHWRS ESPCLY EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WILL GO WITH
CHC OF SNOW SHWRS ALL AREAS WITH GREATEST CHC EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

SATURDAY, LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH HIGH OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY RIDGING NE TWD THE LOWER LAKES DURG THE DAY. MAX TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH COUNTRY TO UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. A MID LVL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA IN THE
MRNG AND THEN INTO ERLY AFT NORTH COUNTRY. WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHWRS FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION IN THE MRNG AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF LK ONTARIO DUE TO THE MID LVL TROUGH
AND 850 TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR LK EFFECT POTENTIAL EAST OF ONTARIO.

SUNDAY, GOING TWD HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS MORE TWD ECMWF THAT HAS A
RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH
PTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS IS PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS JUST WEST OF BUFFALO AND NIAGARA FALLS AS OF
05Z. THIS BAND WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT BY MID DAY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS IN THE 2K FOOT RANGE INCREASE TO 40 TO 55
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRNT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRING FIRST SOME RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION THEN SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION ESPCLY AFT 06Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICING PRBLMS FOR A PTN OF THE
AREA MNLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
TUESDAY...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL SIG
IMPACTS ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.
WEDNESDAY...THE PRECIPITATION SHLD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHWRS WITH
THE THREAT MNLY FROM THE GEN VALLEY EASTWARD IN THE MORNING AND
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN ANOTHER LOW MOVING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF MORE PRECIPITATION THU NGT CHANGING TO SCT SNOW
SHWRS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. LTR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SMALL CRAFT ADVSRYS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR PTNS OF LAKE
ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRNT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION.

NOTE...SINCE LAKE ERIE IS ALMOST ENTIRELY ICE COVERED...WAVES HAVE
BEEN OMITTED FROM THE NEARSHORE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOW COVERS THE GROUND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA BUT SWES ARE ONLY
MODEST ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER..RECENT VERY COLD WEATHER HAS
INCREASED THE EXTENT AND THICKNESS OF ICE IN THE CREEKS WITH
RESIDUAL ICE JAMS FROM PREVIOUS THAWS IN PLACE. MONDAYS DRAMATIC
WARMUP WILL INCREASE MOVEMENT OF THE ICE...WITH TDHS (THAWING DEG
HOURS) REACHING THE 300 THRESHOLD BY MON EVENING. HEAVY QPF WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS TUES PM AND
NIGHT...IF MUCH OF IT FALLS AS LIQUID. THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THREAT REMAINS ACROSS ALLEGHENY BASIN. SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SFM
NEAR TERM...SFM/TJP
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJP/SAGE
MARINE...JJP/SAGE
HYDROLOGY...SFM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2008

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-031030-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
340 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY AN ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AND BE PRECEDED BY
RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL TURN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY MORNING
WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THEN...AFTER A BIT OF A LULL...LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST TUESDAY NIGHT. UP TO ONE INCH
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...WHICH WILL TURN BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICING
OVER SOME AREAS...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO BE MORE SPECIFIC AS MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SLEET. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT
THE END OF THE STORM SHOULD BE MODEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-031030-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
340 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SFM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
415 AM EST MON MAR 3 2008

NYZ006>008-031215-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
415 AM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...PATCHY FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...

RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...SOME LOCATIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE ICY CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS TRAVELING EARLY THIS
MORNING...ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND TAKE EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 7 AM.

TMA