Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2008

Flood Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

March 3, 2008Chautauqua County, Erie County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Mar 3, 2008, 4:09 AM EST for Chautauqua County, Erie County, New York. It took effect at Mar 3, 2008, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for 18 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 3, 2008, 4:09 AM EST (09:09 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 3, 2008, 4:00 PM EST
Expired
Mar 4, 2008, 10:01 AM EST
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY
Flood severity
None

Counties Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2008-03-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2008-03-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 163 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2070 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
163 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
289 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS61 KBUF 030909
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
409 AM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...WARM WEATHER MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING...

.A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM
FLOODING ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUTH OF
THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS EVEN NEARING 60 DEGREES. 
ALTHOUGH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY...THIS WARMTH
ALONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAPID SNOW MELTING AND MOVEMENT OF
ICE FIELDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM
WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN
LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

NYZ010-019-085-031715-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0002.080303T2100Z-080304T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
409 AM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN 
  ERIE.

* FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL
  BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS NEAR SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK. 

THE PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS ALLOWED
A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE TO FORM IN THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS. 

MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS EVEN NEARING 60 DEGREES. 
ALTHOUGH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY...THIS WARMTH
ALONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAPID SNOW MELTING AND MOVEMENT OF
ICE FIELDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM
WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN
LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

$$

TMA
5 follow-up statements
000 
WGUS61 KBUF 031609
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1109 AM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...WARM WEATHER MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING...

.A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM
FLOODING ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUTH OF
THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS EVEN NEARING 60 DEGREES.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY...THIS WARMTH
ALONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAPID SNOW MELTING AND MOVEMENT OF
ICE FIELDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM
WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN
LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

NYZ010-019-085-040015-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.080303T2100Z-080304T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...
SPRINGVILLE
1109 AM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL 
  BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS NEAR SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK. 


THE PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS ALLOWED
A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE TO FORM IN THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS EVEN NEARING 60 DEGREES.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY...THIS WARMTH
ALONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAPID SNOW MELTING AND MOVEMENT OF
ICE FIELDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM
WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN
LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

$$
000 
WGUS61 KBUF 032040
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...WARM WEATHER MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING...

.A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING
ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE
CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO
THE 60S CAUSED RAPID SNOWMELT AND MOVEMENT OF REMAINING ICE IN
THE CREEKS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING TOWARD MORNING.

PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM
WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN
LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

NYZ019-040445-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0003.080305T0000Z-080305T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.080303T2100Z-080304T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JAMESTOWN
340 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...CHAUTAUQUA.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING AT SUNSET
  BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO
THE 60S CAUSED RAPID SNOWMELT AND MOVEMENT OF REMAINING ICE IN
THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOWARD MORNING.

PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS
CREEK.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTY...CHAUTAUQUA.

* FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* HEAVY RAINS AND SNOWMELT MAY PRODUCE FLOODING.

FREEZING RAIN MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND
COMBINE WITH SNOWMELT TO PRODUCE RAPID RISES TO RIVERS AND CREEKS. 

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

$$

NYZ020-021-040445-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0003.080305T0000Z-080305T1700Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
340 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY AND CATTARAUGUS.

* FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* HEAVY RAINS AND SNOWMELT MAY CAUSE FLOODING.
 
FREEZING RAIN MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND
COMBINE WITH SNOWMELT TO PRODUCE RAPID RISES TO RIVERS AND CREEKS. 

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

$$

NYZ010-085-040445-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.080303T2100Z-080304T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
340 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL 
  BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS NEAR SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK. 

THE PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS ALLOWED
A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE TO FORM IN THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER MONDAY SAW TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO
THE 60S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MOVEMENT OF ICE ON AREA CREEKS AS
WELL AS RAPID SNOWMELT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM
WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN
LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

$$

SFM
000 
WGUS61 KBUF 040219
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
918 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...WARM WEATHER MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING...

.A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING
ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE
CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 60S CAUSED RAPID SNOWMELT AND MOVEMENT OF REMAINING
ICE IN THE CREEKS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

NYZ019-041030-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080304T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.080305T0000Z-080305T1700Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JAMESTOWN
918 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...CHAUTAUQUA.

* UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING AT SUNSET BAY
  AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
WELL INTO THE 60S CAUSED RAPID SNOWMELT AND MOVEMENT OF REMAINING
ICE IN THE CREEKS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

POTENTIAL PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE
READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...CHAUTAUQUA.

* FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* HEAVY RAINS AND SNOWMELT MAY PRODUCE FLOODING.

FREEZING RAIN MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND
COMBINE WITH SNOWMELT TO PRODUCE RAPID RISES TO RIVERS AND CREEKS.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT
FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

$$

NYZ010-085-040900-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080304T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
918 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE.

* UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL 
  BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS NEAR SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF 
  CATTARAUGUS CREEK. 

THE PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS ALLOWED
A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE TO FORM IN THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS.

MUCH WARMER WEATHER MONDAY SAW TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO
THE 60S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MOVEMENT OF ICE ON AREA CREEKS AS
WELL AS RAPID SNOWMELT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

SO FAR THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS BUT THE
ONLY REAL FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE ALONG CAZENOVIA
CREEK WHRE AN ICE JAM IS IN PLACE FROM THE ORCHARD PARK ROAD
BRIDGE DOWNSTREAM INTO CAZENOVIA PARK. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE
PARK AND GOLF COURSE BUT FOR THE MOST PART ANY HOMES SHOULD BE SPARED.

PROBLEMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN
LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF
CATTARAUGUS CREEK.

PEOPLE NEAR THE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE READY
TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

$$

NYZ020-021-041030-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.080305T0000Z-080305T1700Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
918 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTIES...ALLEGANY AND CATTARAUGUS.

* FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* HEAVY RAINS AND SNOWMELT MAY CAUSE FLOODING.

FREEZING RAIN MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND
COMBINE WITH SNOWMELT TO PRODUCE RAPID RISES TO RIVERS AND CREEKS.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

$$

SAGE
000 
WGUS61 KBUF 040849
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
349 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...ICE JAM FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTHER ERIE COUNTY...

.A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING
ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...ESPECIALLY ON CAZENOVIA CREEK.


NYZ019-041000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080304T0900Z/
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0003.080305T0000Z-080305T1700Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAUTAUQUA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JAMESTOWN
349 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...
...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.

$$

NYZ085-041000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080304T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
349 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR AS SLEET AND SNOW.

$$

NYZ020-021-041000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0003.080305T0000Z-080305T1700Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
349 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.

$$

NYZ010-041500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080304T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
349 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE.

* UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING

* THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL
  BUFFALO AREA CREEKS.


THE PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS ALLOWED
A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE TO FORM IN THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS.

SO FAR THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS BUT THE
ONLY REAL FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE ALONG CAZENOVIA
CREEK WHERE AN ICE JAM IS IN PLACE FROM THE ORCHARD PARK ROAD
BRIDGE DOWNSTREAM INTO CAZENOVIA PARK. WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN
RISING AT EBENEZER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HAVE BEEN
BACKING UP BEHIND THIS ICE JAM...BUT HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS GAGE LOCATION. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE PARK AND GOLF
COURSE BUT FOR THE MOST PART ANY HOMES SHOULD BE SPARED.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT
FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$
000 
WGUS61 KBUF 041501
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1001 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...ICE JAM THREAT HAS EASED...

.MONDAYS WARM WEATHER CAUSED MOVEMENT OF ICE IN AREA CREEKS. THE
COLDER WEATHER THIS MORNING HAS EASED THE THREAT AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING. 

NYZ010-041615-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080304T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
1001 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. 

COLDER WEATHER THIS MORNING HAS EASED THE THREAT OF FLOODING ALONG
CAZENOVIA CREEK AS RUNOFF HAS STOPPED AND THE JAM HAS MOVED DOWN
BELOW CAZENOVIA PARK. 

$$

SFM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Mar 2, 11:59 PM EST, 4 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 2, 11:59 PM EST, 4 hours 10 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1159 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPID CHANGES WILL BE IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL INCLUDE OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF SPRING
MONDAY...MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTS ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND
A RETURN OF MIDWINTER CHILL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT IS GENERATING SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...AFTER
AN INITIAL PERIOD OF VIRGA AS THE RAIN ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. SINCE AREA TEMPERATURES
APPEAR TO HAVE ALREADY BOTTOMED OUT THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOST OF
THE PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE GENESEE
VALLEY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. WILL LEAVE IN THE
SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT SINCE THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...THERE
ARE NO REAL CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. BUT...THIS SITUATION WILL BE
MONITORED CAREFULLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SPRING GIVES US A TEASE ON MONDAY...BUT ITS STAY WILL BE BRIEF.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY...AND WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO +8C OR SO AND A DECENT
MIXING SSW WIND...TEMPS WILL RISE WELL INTO 50S...AND 60 NOT OUT
OF QUESTION IN WARM SPOTS OF GENESEE VALLEY. IMMED BUFFALO AREA A
CLOSE CALL DEPENDING ON WIND DIRECTION. MODELS INSIST ON 210-220
WHICH WOULD ALLOW E SUBURBS TO RISE INTO 50S AS WELL...BUT CITY
AND NEAR THE RIVER WILL BE COOLER DUE TO SOME INFLUENCE OFF ICE
COVERED LAKE ERIE. WILL HOLD OFF SHOWERS FROM APPROACHING FRONT
TILL 6 PM OR SO.

THE FORECAST GETS VERY COMPLICATED FOR THE FOLLOWING 24 TO 36
HOURS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LEANING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER MON NT AND EARLY TUES...THEN STALLING IT JUST TO OUR
EAST AND SOUTH...THEN MAJOR COMPLEX LOW GETS GOING IN THE LOWER
MIDWEST AND LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION DURING TUES AND TUES
NT. WE WILL ALL GET A SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS MON NT WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON
TUESDAY AS FAR EAST AS THE GEN VALLEY. NAM APPEARS OVERDONE WITH
PRECIP ON BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT BUT WILL INCR POPS TO CATEG LATE
AND GO WITH A 1-2 INCH ACCUM TOWARD DAYBREAK TUES ON NIAG FRONTIER
AND NR LAKE ERIE.

THIS PRECIP SHOULD EASE OFF TUES MORNING AS FRONT SLIDES TO NY-PA
BORDER AND STALLS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. NORTHERN AREAS LIKE BUF
AND ROC COULD SEE PRECIP END COMPLETELY FOR MUCH OF TUES...ESP IF
ECMWF AND NAM ARE CORRECT...WHILE IT LINGERS CROSS SRN TIER AS
RAIN...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING TO FZ RAIN LATER IN DAY AS COLD NORTH
TO NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES DUE TO LARGE HIGH OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC.

ALL MODELS THEN BRING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE UP FROM TENN VALLEY TO
ABOUT WVA BY TUES EVE AND THEN TAKE IT RIGHT CROSS THE SPINE OF
APPALACHIANS TO NEAR BGM BY 12Z WED. THIS IS AN UNLIKELY
PATH...THE NAM12 MORE REALISTIC IN TAKING AN INITIAL LOW UP W OF
APPALACHIANS TO ERN LK ERIE WHILE DEEPER LOW MOVES UP ACROSS ERN
PA. GFS AND ECMWF DOT HAVE THE RESOLUTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MOUNTAIN BLOCK SO SHOW A BROAD LOW. OUR EXPERIENCE IS THAT LOWS OR
THEIR SFC REFLECTION LIKE TO STAY WEST OF MTNS AND USUALLY WIND UP
FARTHER N AND W THAN MAIN MODELS SHOW...ESPECIALLY THIS WINTER.

IN ANY CASE...COPIOUS QPF WILL SURGE BACK UP ACROSS OUR CWA FROM
LATE TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH TUES NT. PRELIM INDICATIONS ARE FOR AN
INCH OR SO...AND P-TYPE IS A BIG QUESTION. EVEN THE COLDER GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS BRING THICKNESSES TO 546 AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE
EVENT...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS HAS A SUPPRESSED 0C 850 MB ISOTHERM OVER
NIAG FRONTIER (SLEET)...BUT NEARLY ALL THE SREF PLUMES SHOW A MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN AT BUF WITH ALMOST NO SNOW...SO WE CAN ASSUME IT
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT TO PRECLUDE A MAJOR SNOWSTORM IN OUR
AREA. BUT...WITH INCREASING NE SFC WIND TUES EVE...TEMPS SHOULD BE
BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SRN TIER
EARLY ON. THEREFORE WE LOOK FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...CHANGING TO SNOW AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST AFTER
06Z FROM WEST TO EAST. WE COULD SEE A SMALL ACCUM OF SNOW AT END
BUT MAIN PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER AT BUF BY 06-08Z WED AND BY AROUND
12Z WED E OF LK ONTARIO.

THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT A GOOD AMT OF QPF WILL FALL AS LIQUID
TUES PM AND EARLY EVE ACROSS SRN TIER BEFORE COLDER SFC AIR
ARRIVES SO WE MAY SOME HYDRO ISSUES. SEE BELOW.

WITH ALL THIS BEING CONSIDERED...AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH ALL
NEARBY OFFICES...IT WAS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR
NOW. WE NEED AT LEAST 0.5 INCH OF ICE OR 7 INCHES OF SNOW FOR A
WARNING AND BECAUSE OF THE MIX OF EVERYTHING...CONFIDENCE IN
REACHING EITHER CRITERIA IS LOW...IT MAY BE MORE OF AN ADVISORY
EVENT INSTEAD. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.

WED SHOULD SEE IMPROVING WX WITH DRYING AND TEMPS IN L30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO NEW YORK WILL MOVE EAST WITH SOME CLOUDS INCREASING LATER WED NGT
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LKS.

THURSDAY, LOW OVER THE CENTRAL LKS MOVES EAST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHWRS IN THE MRNG AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHWRS THU NGT.

FRIDAY, LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC MOVES NE WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OF
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. A MID LVL SHORT
WAVE MOVING NE ACROSS THE LWR LKS ALNG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND 850
TEMPS OF -4 TO -10C LWRING TO -12 TO -16C BRINGS INCREASING THREAT
OF SOME LK EEFECT SNOW SHWRS ESPCLY EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WILL GO WITH
CHC OF SNOW SHWRS ALL AREAS WITH GREATEST CHC EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

SATURDAY, LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH HIGH OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY RIDGING NE TWD THE LOWER LAKES DURG THE DAY. MAX TEMPS
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH COUNTRY TO UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. A MID LVL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA IN THE
MRNG AND THEN INTO ERLY AFT NORTH COUNTRY. WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHWRS FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION IN THE MRNG AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF LK ONTARIO DUE TO THE MID LVL TROUGH
AND 850 TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR LK EFFECT POTENTIAL EAST OF ONTARIO.

SUNDAY, GOING TWD HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS MORE TWD ECMWF THAT HAS A
RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH
PTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS IS PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS JUST WEST OF BUFFALO AND NIAGARA FALLS AS OF
05Z. THIS BAND WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT BY MID DAY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS IN THE 2K FOOT RANGE INCREASE TO 40 TO 55
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRNT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRING FIRST SOME RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION THEN SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION ESPCLY AFT 06Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICING PRBLMS FOR A PTN OF THE
AREA MNLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
TUESDAY...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL SIG
IMPACTS ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.
WEDNESDAY...THE PRECIPITATION SHLD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHWRS WITH
THE THREAT MNLY FROM THE GEN VALLEY EASTWARD IN THE MORNING AND
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THEN ANOTHER LOW MOVING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF MORE PRECIPITATION THU NGT CHANGING TO SCT SNOW
SHWRS FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. LTR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY SMALL CRAFT ADVSRYS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR PTNS OF LAKE
ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRNT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION.

NOTE...SINCE LAKE ERIE IS ALMOST ENTIRELY ICE COVERED...WAVES HAVE
BEEN OMITTED FROM THE NEARSHORE FORECAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SNOW COVERS THE GROUND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA BUT SWES ARE ONLY
MODEST ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER..RECENT VERY COLD WEATHER HAS
INCREASED THE EXTENT AND THICKNESS OF ICE IN THE CREEKS WITH
RESIDUAL ICE JAMS FROM PREVIOUS THAWS IN PLACE. MONDAYS DRAMATIC
WARMUP WILL INCREASE MOVEMENT OF THE ICE...WITH TDHS (THAWING DEG
HOURS) REACHING THE 300 THRESHOLD BY MON EVENING. HEAVY QPF WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS TUES PM AND
NIGHT...IF MUCH OF IT FALLS AS LIQUID. THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THREAT REMAINS ACROSS ALLEGHENY BASIN. SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SFM
NEAR TERM...SFM/TJP
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJP/SAGE
MARINE...JJP/SAGE
HYDROLOGY...SFM
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 2, 3:40 PM EST, 12 hours 29 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2008

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-031030-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
340 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY AN ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AND BE PRECEDED BY
RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL TURN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY MORNING
WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THEN...AFTER A BIT OF A LULL...LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST TUESDAY NIGHT. UP TO ONE INCH
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...WHICH WILL TURN BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICING
OVER SOME AREAS...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO BE MORE SPECIFIC AS MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SLEET. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT
THE END OF THE STORM SHOULD BE MODEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-031030-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
340 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SFM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 3, 4:27 AM ESTWinter Storm WatchBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 10 more25 hr
Mar 3, 3:40 PM ESTFlood WatchBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua12 hr

Nearby

Flood Watches in New York, 2008Every flood watch in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.