Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2008
Flood Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Mar 3, 2008, 4:09 AM EST for Chautauqua County, Erie County, New York. It took effect at Mar 3, 2008, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for 18 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 3, 2008, 4:09 AM EST (09:09 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 3, 2008, 4:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Mar 4, 2008, 10:01 AM EST
- In force
- 18 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2070 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 57 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 163 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 289 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS61 KBUF 030909 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 409 AM EST MON MAR 3 2008 ...WARM WEATHER MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING... .A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS EVEN NEARING 60 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY...THIS WARMTH ALONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAPID SNOW MELTING AND MOVEMENT OF ICE FIELDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK. NYZ010-019-085-031715- /O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0002.080303T2100Z-080304T0900Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK... SPRINGVILLE 409 AM EST MON MAR 3 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE. * FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT * THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS NEAR SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK. THE PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS ALLOWED A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE TO FORM IN THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS EVEN NEARING 60 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY...THIS WARMTH ALONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAPID SNOW MELTING AND MOVEMENT OF ICE FIELDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK. PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ TMA
5 follow-up statements
000 WGUS61 KBUF 031609 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1109 AM EST MON MAR 3 2008 ...WARM WEATHER MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING... .A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS EVEN NEARING 60 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY...THIS WARMTH ALONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAPID SNOW MELTING AND MOVEMENT OF ICE FIELDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK. NYZ010-019-085-040015- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.080303T2100Z-080304T0900Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK... SPRINGVILLE 1109 AM EST MON MAR 3 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE. * FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT * THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS NEAR SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK. THE PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS ALLOWED A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE TO FORM IN THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS EVEN NEARING 60 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY...THIS WARMTH ALONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAPID SNOW MELTING AND MOVEMENT OF ICE FIELDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK. PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$
000 WGUS61 KBUF 032040 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 340 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008 ...WARM WEATHER MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING... .A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY. MUCH WARMER WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S CAUSED RAPID SNOWMELT AND MOVEMENT OF REMAINING ICE IN THE CREEKS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOWARD MORNING. PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK. NYZ019-040445- /O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0003.080305T0000Z-080305T1700Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.080303T2100Z-080304T0900Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHAUTAUQUA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JAMESTOWN 340 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...CHAUTAUQUA. * THROUGH LATE TONIGHT * THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING AT SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK. MUCH WARMER WEATHER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S CAUSED RAPID SNOWMELT AND MOVEMENT OF REMAINING ICE IN THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOWARD MORNING. PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK. PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...CHAUTAUQUA. * FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * HEAVY RAINS AND SNOWMELT MAY PRODUCE FLOODING. FREEZING RAIN MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINE WITH SNOWMELT TO PRODUCE RAPID RISES TO RIVERS AND CREEKS. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ NYZ020-021-040445- /O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0003.080305T0000Z-080305T1700Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE 340 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY AND CATTARAUGUS. * FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * HEAVY RAINS AND SNOWMELT MAY CAUSE FLOODING. FREEZING RAIN MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINE WITH SNOWMELT TO PRODUCE RAPID RISES TO RIVERS AND CREEKS. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ NYZ010-085-040445- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.080303T2100Z-080304T0900Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 340 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE. * THROUGH LATE TONIGHT * THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS NEAR SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK. THE PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS ALLOWED A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE TO FORM IN THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS. MUCH WARMER WEATHER MONDAY SAW TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MOVEMENT OF ICE ON AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS RAPID SNOWMELT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL ONES...CAZENOVIA CREEK FROM WEST SENECA TO SOUTH BUFFALO...CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK. PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ SFM
000 WGUS61 KBUF 040219 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 918 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008 ...WARM WEATHER MAY CAUSE ICE JAM FLOODING... .A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT SUNSET BAY. MUCH WARMER WEATHER DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S CAUSED RAPID SNOWMELT AND MOVEMENT OF REMAINING ICE IN THE CREEKS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NYZ019-041030- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080304T0900Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.080305T0000Z-080305T1700Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHAUTAUQUA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JAMESTOWN 918 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...CHAUTAUQUA. * UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY * THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING AT SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK. MUCH WARMER WEATHER DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S CAUSED RAPID SNOWMELT AND MOVEMENT OF REMAINING ICE IN THE CREEKS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL PROBLEM AREAS WOULD BE SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK. PEOPLE NEAR THESE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...CHAUTAUQUA. * FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * HEAVY RAINS AND SNOWMELT MAY PRODUCE FLOODING. FREEZING RAIN MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINE WITH SNOWMELT TO PRODUCE RAPID RISES TO RIVERS AND CREEKS. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ NYZ010-085-040900- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080304T0900Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 918 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...NORTHERN ERIE AND SOUTHERN ERIE. * UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY * THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS NEAR SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK. THE PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS ALLOWED A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE TO FORM IN THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS. MUCH WARMER WEATHER MONDAY SAW TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MOVEMENT OF ICE ON AREA CREEKS AS WELL AS RAPID SNOWMELT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SO FAR THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS BUT THE ONLY REAL FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE ALONG CAZENOVIA CREEK WHRE AN ICE JAM IS IN PLACE FROM THE ORCHARD PARK ROAD BRIDGE DOWNSTREAM INTO CAZENOVIA PARK. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE PARK AND GOLF COURSE BUT FOR THE MOST PART ANY HOMES SHOULD BE SPARED. PROBLEMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG CAYUGA AND BUFFALO CREEKS IN LANCASTER AND CHEEKTOWAGA...AND SUNSET BAY AT THE MOUTH OF CATTARAUGUS CREEK. PEOPLE NEAR THE USUAL PROBLEM AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING ISSUED. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ NYZ020-021-041030- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0003.080305T0000Z-080305T1700Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE 918 PM EST MON MAR 3 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...ALLEGANY AND CATTARAUGUS. * FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * HEAVY RAINS AND SNOWMELT MAY CAUSE FLOODING. FREEZING RAIN MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINE WITH SNOWMELT TO PRODUCE RAPID RISES TO RIVERS AND CREEKS. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES $$ SAGE
000 WGUS61 KBUF 040849 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 349 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008 ...ICE JAM FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE IN NORTHER ERIE COUNTY... .A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...ESPECIALLY ON CAZENOVIA CREEK. NYZ019-041000- /O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080304T0900Z/ /O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0003.080305T0000Z-080305T1700Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHAUTAUQUA- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JAMESTOWN 349 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. $$ NYZ085-041000- /O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080304T0900Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 349 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR AS SLEET AND SNOW. $$ NYZ020-021-041000- /O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0003.080305T0000Z-080305T1700Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE 349 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. $$ NYZ010-041500- /O.EXT.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080304T1500Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO 349 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE. * UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING * THE WATCH IS FOR A POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL BUFFALO AREA CREEKS. THE PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS ALLOWED A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE TO FORM IN THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS. SO FAR THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA CREEKS BUT THE ONLY REAL FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE ALONG CAZENOVIA CREEK WHERE AN ICE JAM IS IN PLACE FROM THE ORCHARD PARK ROAD BRIDGE DOWNSTREAM INTO CAZENOVIA PARK. WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RISING AT EBENEZER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HAVE BEEN BACKING UP BEHIND THIS ICE JAM...BUT HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS GAGE LOCATION. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE PARK AND GOLF COURSE BUT FOR THE MOST PART ANY HOMES SHOULD BE SPARED. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. $$
000 WGUS61 KBUF 041501 FFABUF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1001 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008 ...ICE JAM THREAT HAS EASED... .MONDAYS WARM WEATHER CAUSED MOVEMENT OF ICE IN AREA CREEKS. THE COLDER WEATHER THIS MORNING HAS EASED THE THREAT AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING. NYZ010-041615- /O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080304T1500Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO 1001 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. COLDER WEATHER THIS MORNING HAS EASED THE THREAT OF FLOODING ALONG CAZENOVIA CREEK AS RUNOFF HAS STOPPED AND THE JAM HAS MOVED DOWN BELOW CAZENOVIA PARK. $$ SFM
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Mar 2, 11:59 PM EST, 4 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 2, 11:59 PM EST, 4 hours 10 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1159 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2008 .SYNOPSIS... RAPID CHANGES WILL BE IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL INCLUDE OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF SPRING MONDAY...MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTS ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND A RETURN OF MIDWINTER CHILL BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT IS GENERATING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...AFTER AN INITIAL PERIOD OF VIRGA AS THE RAIN ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. SINCE AREA TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO HAVE ALREADY BOTTOMED OUT THIS EVENING...EXPECT MOST OF THE PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. WILL LEAVE IN THE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...BUT SINCE THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...THERE ARE NO REAL CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. BUT...THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CAREFULLY OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SPRING GIVES US A TEASE ON MONDAY...BUT ITS STAY WILL BE BRIEF. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO +8C OR SO AND A DECENT MIXING SSW WIND...TEMPS WILL RISE WELL INTO 50S...AND 60 NOT OUT OF QUESTION IN WARM SPOTS OF GENESEE VALLEY. IMMED BUFFALO AREA A CLOSE CALL DEPENDING ON WIND DIRECTION. MODELS INSIST ON 210-220 WHICH WOULD ALLOW E SUBURBS TO RISE INTO 50S AS WELL...BUT CITY AND NEAR THE RIVER WILL BE COOLER DUE TO SOME INFLUENCE OFF ICE COVERED LAKE ERIE. WILL HOLD OFF SHOWERS FROM APPROACHING FRONT TILL 6 PM OR SO. THE FORECAST GETS VERY COMPLICATED FOR THE FOLLOWING 24 TO 36 HOURS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LEANING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER MON NT AND EARLY TUES...THEN STALLING IT JUST TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH...THEN MAJOR COMPLEX LOW GETS GOING IN THE LOWER MIDWEST AND LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION DURING TUES AND TUES NT. WE WILL ALL GET A SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS MON NT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY AS FAR EAST AS THE GEN VALLEY. NAM APPEARS OVERDONE WITH PRECIP ON BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT BUT WILL INCR POPS TO CATEG LATE AND GO WITH A 1-2 INCH ACCUM TOWARD DAYBREAK TUES ON NIAG FRONTIER AND NR LAKE ERIE. THIS PRECIP SHOULD EASE OFF TUES MORNING AS FRONT SLIDES TO NY-PA BORDER AND STALLS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. NORTHERN AREAS LIKE BUF AND ROC COULD SEE PRECIP END COMPLETELY FOR MUCH OF TUES...ESP IF ECMWF AND NAM ARE CORRECT...WHILE IT LINGERS CROSS SRN TIER AS RAIN...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING TO FZ RAIN LATER IN DAY AS COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES DUE TO LARGE HIGH OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. ALL MODELS THEN BRING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE UP FROM TENN VALLEY TO ABOUT WVA BY TUES EVE AND THEN TAKE IT RIGHT CROSS THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS TO NEAR BGM BY 12Z WED. THIS IS AN UNLIKELY PATH...THE NAM12 MORE REALISTIC IN TAKING AN INITIAL LOW UP W OF APPALACHIANS TO ERN LK ERIE WHILE DEEPER LOW MOVES UP ACROSS ERN PA. GFS AND ECMWF DOT HAVE THE RESOLUTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOUNTAIN BLOCK SO SHOW A BROAD LOW. OUR EXPERIENCE IS THAT LOWS OR THEIR SFC REFLECTION LIKE TO STAY WEST OF MTNS AND USUALLY WIND UP FARTHER N AND W THAN MAIN MODELS SHOW...ESPECIALLY THIS WINTER. IN ANY CASE...COPIOUS QPF WILL SURGE BACK UP ACROSS OUR CWA FROM LATE TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH TUES NT. PRELIM INDICATIONS ARE FOR AN INCH OR SO...AND P-TYPE IS A BIG QUESTION. EVEN THE COLDER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS BRING THICKNESSES TO 546 AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE EVENT...ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS HAS A SUPPRESSED 0C 850 MB ISOTHERM OVER NIAG FRONTIER (SLEET)...BUT NEARLY ALL THE SREF PLUMES SHOW A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT BUF WITH ALMOST NO SNOW...SO WE CAN ASSUME IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT TO PRECLUDE A MAJOR SNOWSTORM IN OUR AREA. BUT...WITH INCREASING NE SFC WIND TUES EVE...TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SRN TIER EARLY ON. THEREFORE WE LOOK FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA...CHANGING TO SNOW AS SYSTEM PULLS EAST AFTER 06Z FROM WEST TO EAST. WE COULD SEE A SMALL ACCUM OF SNOW AT END BUT MAIN PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER AT BUF BY 06-08Z WED AND BY AROUND 12Z WED E OF LK ONTARIO. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT A GOOD AMT OF QPF WILL FALL AS LIQUID TUES PM AND EARLY EVE ACROSS SRN TIER BEFORE COLDER SFC AIR ARRIVES SO WE MAY SOME HYDRO ISSUES. SEE BELOW. WITH ALL THIS BEING CONSIDERED...AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH ALL NEARBY OFFICES...IT WAS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR NOW. WE NEED AT LEAST 0.5 INCH OF ICE OR 7 INCHES OF SNOW FOR A WARNING AND BECAUSE OF THE MIX OF EVERYTHING...CONFIDENCE IN REACHING EITHER CRITERIA IS LOW...IT MAY BE MORE OF AN ADVISORY EVENT INSTEAD. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. WED SHOULD SEE IMPROVING WX WITH DRYING AND TEMPS IN L30S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW YORK WILL MOVE EAST WITH SOME CLOUDS INCREASING LATER WED NGT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL LKS. THURSDAY, LOW OVER THE CENTRAL LKS MOVES EAST AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHWRS IN THE MRNG AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHWRS THU NGT. FRIDAY, LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC MOVES NE WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA. A MID LVL SHORT WAVE MOVING NE ACROSS THE LWR LKS ALNG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND 850 TEMPS OF -4 TO -10C LWRING TO -12 TO -16C BRINGS INCREASING THREAT OF SOME LK EEFECT SNOW SHWRS ESPCLY EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WILL GO WITH CHC OF SNOW SHWRS ALL AREAS WITH GREATEST CHC EAST OF LK ONTARIO. SATURDAY, LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH HIGH OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY RIDGING NE TWD THE LOWER LAKES DURG THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH COUNTRY TO UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. A MID LVL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA IN THE MRNG AND THEN INTO ERLY AFT NORTH COUNTRY. WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR SNOW SHWRS FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION IN THE MRNG AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF LK ONTARIO DUE TO THE MID LVL TROUGH AND 850 TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR LK EFFECT POTENTIAL EAST OF ONTARIO. SUNDAY, GOING TWD HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS MORE TWD ECMWF THAT HAS A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH PTLY SUNNY-MSTLY CLDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WARM ADVECTION AT ALL LEVELS IS PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS JUST WEST OF BUFFALO AND NIAGARA FALLS AS OF 05Z. THIS BAND WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT BY MID DAY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS IN THE 2K FOOT RANGE INCREASE TO 40 TO 55 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRNT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING FIRST SOME RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION THEN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ESPCLY AFT 06Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICING PRBLMS FOR A PTN OF THE AREA MNLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. TUESDAY...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL SIG IMPACTS ON AVIATION OPERATIONS. WEDNESDAY...THE PRECIPITATION SHLD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHWRS WITH THE THREAT MNLY FROM THE GEN VALLEY EASTWARD IN THE MORNING AND ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN ANOTHER LOW MOVING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MORE PRECIPITATION THU NGT CHANGING TO SCT SNOW SHWRS FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. LTR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SMALL CRAFT ADVSRYS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR PTNS OF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRNT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION. NOTE...SINCE LAKE ERIE IS ALMOST ENTIRELY ICE COVERED...WAVES HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE NEARSHORE FORECAST. && .HYDROLOGY... SNOW COVERS THE GROUND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA BUT SWES ARE ONLY MODEST ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER..RECENT VERY COLD WEATHER HAS INCREASED THE EXTENT AND THICKNESS OF ICE IN THE CREEKS WITH RESIDUAL ICE JAMS FROM PREVIOUS THAWS IN PLACE. MONDAYS DRAMATIC WARMUP WILL INCREASE MOVEMENT OF THE ICE...WITH TDHS (THAWING DEG HOURS) REACHING THE 300 THRESHOLD BY MON EVENING. HEAVY QPF WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS TUES PM AND NIGHT...IF MUCH OF IT FALLS AS LIQUID. THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THREAT REMAINS ACROSS ALLEGHENY BASIN. SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...SFM NEAR TERM...SFM/TJP SHORT TERM...SFM LONG TERM...JJP AVIATION...JJP/SAGE MARINE...JJP/SAGE HYDROLOGY...SFM
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 2, 3:40 PM EST, 12 hours 29 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 340 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2008 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-031030- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA- CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- 340 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY AN ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AND BE PRECEDED BY RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL TURN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THEN...AFTER A BIT OF A LULL...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO PENNSYLVANIA AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST TUESDAY NIGHT. UP TO ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH WILL TURN BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICING OVER SOME AREAS...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO BE MORE SPECIFIC AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SLEET. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE END OF THE STORM SHOULD BE MODEST. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-031030- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 340 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF SFM
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 4:27 AM EST | Winter Storm Watch | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 10 more | 25 hr |
| Mar 3, 3:40 PM EST | Flood Watch | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua | 12 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.