Lake Effect Snow Advisory 21, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 011651
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1151 AM EST MON DEC 1 2008

...MORE LAKE SNOWS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
LIFT INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN SWEEP
QUICKLY SOUTH INTO SKI COUNTRY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS THE
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER SKI COUNTRY AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING BACK NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
WATERTOWN LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY BY
MIDDAY. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE TUG HILL TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY MAJOR
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ENOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

NYZ012-019-020-085-020100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0021.081202T0600Z-081202T2100Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1151 AM EST MON DEC 1 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM
EST TUESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM
EST TUESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
TUESDAY. THE LAKE SNOWS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS SKI COUNTRY
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS...
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON HILLS AND SKI
COUNTRY. LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE SHORE ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO HAVE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

NYZ006>008-020100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0021.081202T1000Z-081203T0300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1151 AM EST MON DEC 1 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM
EST TUESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM
EST TUESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TUG HILL
REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO OSWEGO COUNTY
BY MIDDAY. THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OSWEGO
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TUG HILL REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AND WEAKENING TUESDAY
EVENING. THE LAKE SNOWS MAY BE HEAVY FOR A BRIEF TIME TUESDAY
MORNING INCLUDING THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
JEFFERSON..LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES. ACROSS THE TUG HILL
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 5 TO 8 INCHES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 012006
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
306 PM EST MON DEC 1 2008

...MORE LAKE SNOWS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
LIFT INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN SWEEP
QUICKLY SOUTH INTO SKI COUNTRY BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS THE
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER SKI COUNTRY AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING BACK NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
WATERTOWN LATE TONIGHT THEN MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY BY
MIDDAY. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE TUG HILL TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY MAJOR
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ENOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

NYZ012-019-020-085-020415-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0021.081202T0600Z-081202T2100Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
306 PM EST MON DEC 1 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM
EST TUESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM
EST TUESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
TUESDAY. THE LAKE SNOWS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS SKI COUNTRY
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS...
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY AND THE
BOSTON HILLS OF SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY, THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. LOWER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE SHORE ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO HAVE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

NYZ006>008-020415-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0021.081202T1000Z-081203T0300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
306 PM EST MON DEC 1 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM
EST TUESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM
EST TUESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY,
AFFECTING WATERTOWN AND FORT DRUM DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TUG HILL REGION AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE THREE COUNTY
AREA OF THE TUG HILL REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTH AND WEAKENING TUESDAY EVENING. THE LAKE SNOWS MAY BE HEAVY
FOR A BRIEF TIME TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING THE MORNING COMMUTE
ACROSS WATERTOWN TO THE TUG HILL REGION WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
JEFFERSON..LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES. ACROSS THE TUG HILL
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 5 TO 8 INCHES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 020338
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1038 PM EST MON DEC 1 2008

...MORE LAKE SNOWS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO 
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
LIFT INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.

OFF LAKE ERIE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS
SKI COUNTRY AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY
AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER SKI COUNTRY AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING BACK NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
WATERTOWN OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SETTLING ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY BY
MIDDAY. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE TUG HILL TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY MAJOR
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ENOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

NYZ012-019-020-085-021145-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.Y.0021.081202T0338Z-081202T2100Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1038 PM EST MON DEC 1 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
TUESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE
LAKE SNOWS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
INCLUDING THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS SKI COUNTRY WITH SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 5 TO 9
INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY AND THE BOSTON HILLS OF SOUTHERN
ERIE COUNTY...THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE SHORE ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO HAVE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

NYZ006>008-021145-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.Y.0021.081202T0600Z-081203T0300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1038 PM EST MON DEC 1 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
TUESDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
TUESDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY...
AFFECTING WATERTOWN AND FORT DRUM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TUG HILL REGION AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE THREE COUNTY
AREA OF THE TUG HILL REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTH AND WEAKENING TUESDAY EVENING. THE LAKE SNOWS MAY BE HEAVY
FOR A BRIEF TIME TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING THE MORNING COMMUTE
ACROSS WATERTOWN TO THE TUG HILL REGION WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES. ACROSS THE TUG HILL
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 5 TO 8 INCHES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

TMA

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 020905
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...MORE LAKE SNOWS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY...

.A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TODAY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS PUSHED INTO SKI COUNTRY AND
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LAKE SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL DIMINISH TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND END BY EARLY EVENING NORTH OF BUFFALO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE NEAR
WATERTOWN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE TUG HILL REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BAND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TUG HILL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTH TOWARDS WATERTOWN BY EARLY EVENING. THE
BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND END
LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY.

THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY MAJOR
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ENOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

NYZ012-019-020-085-021715-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-081202T2100Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
405 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL RESULT
IN A DIFFICULT MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND SKI COUNTRY. LAKE SNOWS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTH. SNOWFALL RATES OF
1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF PERIODS THIS MORNING
IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. THIS WILL PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY AND THE BOSTON HILLS OF
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...THEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. 

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

NYZ006>008-021715-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-081203T0300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
405 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL QUICKLY ORGANIZE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
PRODUCE A DIFFICULT MORNING COMMUTE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM WATERTOWN TO HARRISVILLE AND THEN
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE TUG HILL REGION BY AROUND DAYBREAK. A SEPARATE
AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS
OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE LAKE
SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH INTO WATERTOWN BY EARLY
EVENING. THE LAKE SNOWS MAY BE HEAVY FOR A BRIEF TIME WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY...NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY...AND LEWIS
COUNTY. THE TUG HILL WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS WITH 4
TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

HITCHCOCK

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 021245
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
745 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...MORE LAKE SNOWS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY...

.A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TODAY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND INTENSIFYING
AND BECOMING VERY WELL ORGANIZED OVER LAKE ERIE. THE LAKE SNOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SKI COUNTRY THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LAKE
SNOWS WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND END BY EARLY
EVENING NORTH OF BUFFALO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE NEAR
WATERTOWN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE TUG HILL REGION THIS MORNING.
THE BAND WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TUG HILL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTH TOWARDS WATERTOWN BY EARLY EVENING.
THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
END LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY.

THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY MAJOR
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ENOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

NYZ012-019-020-085-022045-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-081202T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0016.081202T1245Z-081202T2100Z/
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
745 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY
IN EFFECT.

MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL
RESULT IN A DIFFICULT MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AND SKI COUNTRY. LAKE SNOWS HAVE BECOME VERY WELL ORGANIZED
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIEST BANDS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND BOSTON HILLS OF NORTHERN
CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHWEST CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE...AND WESTERN
WYOMING COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
ELSEWHERE.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

NYZ006>008-022045-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-081203T0300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
745 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING. 

A WELL ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM NEAR WATERTOWN TO
HARRISVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE TUG HILL
REGION BY MID MORNING. THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING
BACK NORTH INTO WATERTOWN BY EARLY EVENING. THE LAKE SNOWS MAY BE
HEAVY FOR A BRIEF TIME WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR VISIBILITY
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY...NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY...AND
LEWIS COUNTY. THE TUG HILL WILL LIKELY SEE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS
WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

HITCHCOCK

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 021630
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...MORE LAKE SNOWS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY...

.A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TODAY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OVER LAKE ERIE 
MOVING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE BUFFALO
METRO AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AND END BY EARLY EVENING NORTH OF BUFFALO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS INTENSIFIED EAST OF THE
LAKE BETWEEN PARISH AND ADAMS CENTER EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LEWIS COUNTY. THE BAND WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE TUG HILL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTH
TOWARDS WATERTOWN BY EARLY EVENING. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND END LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY.

THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY MAJOR
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ENOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

NYZ019-020-021730-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081202T2100Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN
1130 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

LAKE SNOWS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


$$

NYZ006>008-030030-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-081203T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081203T0300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1130 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A WELL ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BETWEEN PARISH AND ADAMS
CENTER EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LEWIS
COUNTY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH INTO WATERTOWN BY EARLY EVENING. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN
THE HEAVIEST BANDS. THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOW COVERED ROADS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 6 TO 9 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY...NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY...AND
LEWIS COUNTY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

$$

NYZ012-085-022100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0016.000000T0000Z-081202T2100Z/
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1130 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL
RESULT IN DIFFICULT DRIVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
LAKE SNOWS HAVE BECOME VERY WELL ORGANIZED BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIEST BANDS. THIS WILL PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ERIE...AND WESTERN WYOMING COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS ELSEWHERE.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

$$

JJP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
326 AM EST MON DEC 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TODAY THEN HEAD INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN A
DRY SLOT TODAY WITH RELATIVELY MILD AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. TONIGHT COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A BRIEF
RESPITE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...LARGE DRY SLOT HAS WORKED UP ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF OUR
FORECAST AREAS AS OF 08Z. RAIN STILL FALLING OVER OUR ERN LK ONTARIO
REGION BY THIS SHOULD EXIT LEWIS COUNTY BY 10-11Z TIME PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LFQ OF JET AND EASTERN
FRINGE OF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WORK UP ACROSS OHIO INTO SRN
ONTARIO...BARELY BRUSHING OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING.

THE BULK OF OUR AREA WILL HAVE A DRY DAY THANKS TO THE LARGE DRY
SLOT AS MAIN UPPER LOW AND SFC FEATURE LIFT MORE NORTH THAN EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL LOWER POPS DRASTICALLY TO SLGT CHC
RANGE THROUGHOUT...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP CHC POPS ONLY NR LK ERIE
FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING AS OHIO PRECIP LIFTS NORTHWARD. ALSO BOOSTED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM GEN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH A BIT OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE TOO.

AS LOW LIFTS NORTH ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC...
WRAPAROUND CLOUD AND PRECIP WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FAR WEST AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THEN...AS TROF
AXIS/COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT WILL GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS ALL
AREAS FOR ITS PASSAGE. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER LAKE
ENHANCEMENT BOTH IMMEDIATELY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE TROF. 850 MB
TEMPS START IN THE -5C RANGE AROUND 00Z...BUT WITH VERY MOIST AIR
WE CAN EXPECT SOME DEVELOPMENT IN A 230 FLOW IN THE 00-03Z RANGE
IN BUF AREA AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH. THIS MAY START AS RAIN BUT GO
OVER TO SNOW AS WINDS VEER AND IT PASSES ACROSS BUF-BATAVIA IN THE
03-06Z TIME FRAME AND SETTLES ACROSS SKI COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK.
MAYBE AN INCH OF SLUSHY SNOW ACROSS METRO BUF BY MIDNIGHT BUT A
FEW INCHES CAN ACCUMULATE WELL SOUTH OF BUF BY MORNING AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY (SEE SHORT TERM BELOW) ACROSS SKI
COUNTRY SO AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED STARTING AT 06Z. SIMILAR
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT OFF LK ONTARIO...MIX NEAR ART AT FIRST...THEN
SNOW OVER TUG HILL IN PREDAWN HOURS...ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED
THERE TOO...STARTING AT 10Z TUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OUR NEXT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WILL BE CRANKING UP BY THE START OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OFF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE SURFACE LOW WILL ACCELERATE RAPIDLY OUT TO SEA
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON TUESDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
CYCLONE OPENS UP AND IS CAPTURED BY THE POLAR JET. THE REMAINING MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING WITH WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -10C...WHICH WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES.

OFF LAKE ERIE...LAKE INDUCED CAPES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT AROUND
350J/KG WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET AT 12Z TUESDAY WITH
INSTABILITY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO WESTERN NY. THE FAVORED DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
FOUND WITHIN THE LAKE INDUCED MIXED LAYER DURING THE MORNING...BUT
AS THE INVERSION LOWERS SNOW GROWTH EFFICIENCY WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUPPORT...EXPECT A HEALTHY BAND TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SKI COUNTRY FROM NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA TO NORTHERN CATTARAUGUS AND
SOUTHERN ERIE/SOUTHWEST WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND MAY SETTLE A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CHAU/CATT COUNTIES DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING RAPIDLY DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AND PUSHING
BACK NORTH. WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THIS BAND MAY APPROACH THE BUF
SOUTHTOWNS AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY EVENING THE INVERSION WILL QUICKLY LOWER
AND FULLY REMOVE THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE FROM THE LAKE
BAND. THIS SHOULD JUST LEAVE A FEEBLE BAND OF CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE METRO AREA
DURING THE EVENING.

THIS BAND MAY BE SIMILAR TO ONE WE HAD LATE LAST WEEK...AND PER
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION THE BAND MAY BE
INTENSE FOR A SHORT PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS SKI COUNTRY WITH
1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THE SHORT DURATION AND CONTINUED
MOVEMENT OF THE BAND SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO...EXPECT ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCH AMOUNTS
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS SKI COUNTRY...WITH ACCUMS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BAND WEAKENS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR EVOLUTION A FEW HOURS
LATER. AT 12Z TUESDAY EXPECT THE BAND TO BE CENTERED ON THE NORTHERN
TUG HILL. THERE WILL STILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
JUST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND THIS MAY FAVOR A FAIRLY
LARGE AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE.
DURING THE DAY THE BAND SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL INTO
OSWEGO COUNTY. FOLLOWING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS...THE BAND SHOULD REACH ITS SOUTHERNMOST POINT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY...PERHAPS ALSO CLIPPING
EXTREME NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY. FARTHER WEST...THE BAND MAY BRIEFLY
CLIP THE LAKESHORE FROM ORLEANS COUNTY TO WAYNE COUNTY AS WELL WITH
SOME MINOR ACCUMS NEAR THE LAKE. BY EVENING EXPECT THE BAND TO
WEAKEN AS THE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE LIFTS ABOVE
THE LAKE INDUCED MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE REMNANTS OF THE BAND WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
REACHING WATERTOWN AND BREAKING UP INTO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
ENDING OVERNIGHT.

PER MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...THIS BAND MAY
BE RATHER INTENSE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION DURING THE MORNING WITH
1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AND MAYBE EVEN SOME THUNDER. THE
EXPECTED STEADY MOVEMENT OF THE BAND SHOULD HELP LIMIT ACCUMS IN ANY
GIVEN LOCATION...AND EXPECT 2-4 OR 3-5 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS FROM SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY INTO LEWIS COUNTY AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY...MAYBE EVEN LESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE WITH WARMER SURFACE TEMPS. ACROSS THE TUG HILL EXPECT A
SOLID 4-6 INCHES. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE MINOR
AS THE BAND WEAKENS AND LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE DRY WITH WINDS BACKING
TO THE SOUTHWEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL WARM 850MB TEMPS TO 0C OR
EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE...SUPPORTING A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S IN
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND TRAPPED
VALLEYS. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS
FOR A SLOWER ONSET...WENT WITH JUST LOW CHANCE POPS TOWARD EVENING
IN THE WEST WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
AGAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN MIXING WITH
SNOW OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS TODAY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THE TYPICAL TIMING AND
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE MEAN
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE WAVES DROPPING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS LIKELY.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUING DURING THE
DAY. THE FRONTAL AND MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SHOT AT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S DURING THE DAY. SHEAR AND IMPLIED
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME
MAY INITIALLY LIMIT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY.

AFTER THURSDAY...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A SURGE OF TRUE ARCTIC AIR
WILL ENVELOPE THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -14C
OR COLDER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ON BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF. IT IS STILL FAR TOO EARLY TO OFFER ANY PREDICTIVE INSIGHT
INTO WIND DIRECTION GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND
TIMING OF THE PRECEDING LOW. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT THE
POP FORECAST IN SOMEWHAT OF A CLIMATOLOGICAL CONFIGURATION FOR A
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SETUP WITH LIKELY POPS EAST OF THE LAKES AND
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

THE 12Z GFS HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE 00Z/30
ECMWF AND GEM WITH THE HANDLING OF A CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z/30 GFS HAD NO SIGN OF THIS
FEATURE...BUT THE 12Z RUN SEEMS TO BE CAPTURING THE SAME IDEA NOW AS
THE OTHER LONG TERM GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE LONG TIME RANGE AND
LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED MODEL FLIP FLOPPING FOR THIS PERIOD...WILL
JUST HANDLE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 08Z...OCCLUDED FRONT HAS JUST PAST BUF AND WILL LIFT ABOVE
KROC AND KIAG NEXT HOUR. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO SOUTH AND RAIN ENDED.
THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS AT KBUF AND KIAG BUT CONDITIONS
LOOK GENERALLY DRY THROUGH 21Z TODAY NOW WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS. KARTS RAIN WILL END BY 10Z BUT FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL 12-14Z. MVFR CIGS WILL STILL BE THE
RULE...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY LIFT TO VFR AT TIMES TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT
KROC.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE DEPARTING LOW WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL...SOME LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WILL
ALSO LIKELY SET UP NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...THEN
QUICKLY MIGRATE SOUTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO WEST. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH IFR A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN ANY AREAS OF LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOCAL IFR
IN LAKE SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS...IFR EAST OF THE LAKES IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
FRIDAY...IFR IN LAKE SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES..VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ON LAKE ONTARIO AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES THE REGION AND BRIEFLY ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
RELAX. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OUR OUR LATITUDE THIS MORNING...WINDS
WILL QUICKLY SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE. 925MB WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KNOTS...AND SOME OF THESE HIGHER MOMENTUMS
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
STEEPENS LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH MARGINAL GALE WARNINGS ON LAKE ERIE
FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FUNNELS UP THE
LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. WE HELD LAKE ONTARIO TO 30 KNOTS WITH A
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY...ALTHOUGH THE EAST END MAY
APPROACH GALE FORCE LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH BRISK WEST WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
         EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
         EST WEDNESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...SFM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SFM
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SFM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1057 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

NYZ006>008-020400-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
1057 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH OF THIS LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK
MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST AND SETS UP
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THE
STEADIEST SNOW TO IMPACT THE WATERTOWN AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW
BAND IS THEN FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>005-011-013-014-020400-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-
ONTARIO-
1057 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010-020400-
NORTHERN ERIE-
1057 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-085-020400-
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1057 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

COLDER AIR FOLLOWING A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE MOST STEADY SNOW TO FALL ALONG
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-020400-
WYOMING-
1057 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

COLDER AIR FOLLOWING A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE MOST STEADY SNOW TO FALL ALONG
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ021-020400-
ALLEGANY-
1057 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

COLDER AIR FOLLOWING A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE MOST STEADY SNOW TO FALL ALONG
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ020-020400-
CATTARAUGUS-
1057 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

COLDER AIR FOLLOWING A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE MOST STEADY SNOW TO FALL ALONG
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-020400-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1057 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH
COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

TMA