Gale Watch 13, NWS Buffalo, NY

676 
WHUS71 KBUF 201507
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1007 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...

.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE TODAY...
BEFORE A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTS INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING SUNDAY...THEN DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. BEHIND THIS LOW...A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

LOZ042>044-202315-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-081220T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0013.081221T2200Z-081222T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
1007 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. WAVES HAVE
FALLEN BELOW 4 FEET.

WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AND INCREASE SHARPLY TO
GALE FORCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN REMAIN AT GALE
FORCE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-040-041-202315-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0013.081221T1700Z-081222T1800Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1007 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AND INCREASE SHARPLY TO
GALE FORCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN AT GALE FORCE INTO
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-062>065-202315-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0013.081221T2200Z-081222T2200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
1007 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AND INCREASE SHARPLY TO
GALE FORCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN REMAIN AT GALE
FORCE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

SAGE

918 
WHUS71 KBUF 202103
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
403 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE FORCE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...

.A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING SUNDAY...THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. BEHIND THIS LOW...A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

LEZ020-040-041-210515-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0013.081221T1700Z-081222T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0030.081221T1700Z-081222T1800Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
403 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AND INCREASE SHARPLY TO
GALE FORCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN REMAIN AT GALE FORCE INTO
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042>045-062>065-210515-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0013.081221T2200Z-081222T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0030.081222T0000Z-081222T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
403 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY.
THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AND INCREASE SHARPLY TO
GALE FORCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN REMAIN AT GALE
FORCE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
424 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND YESTERDAYS WINTER STORM
WILL DIMINISH TODAY...WITH GENERALLY QUIET AND COLD WEATHER
FOLLOWING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM AFFECTS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DONT LOOK NOW...BUT HERE WE GO AGAIN. ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS SLATED
TO AFFECT ALL OF OUR REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...LIKELY BEING
HIGHLIGHTED BY SIGNIFICANT LAKE LAFFECT SNOWS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE ON THAT IN THE FOLLOWING TWO
SECTIONS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...IT WILL BE TIME TO CLEAN UP FROM
YESTERDAYS WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT.

ANOTHER DIRTY HIGH WILL TEMPORARILY TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TONS OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS
STORM SYSTEM IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE APPROACHING RIDGES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A WEALTH OF MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD FROM ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA WILL MEAN THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY CLOUDS.

TODAYS CLOUDINESS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FLURRIES...AND THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS MORNING...WIDESPREAD LIGHT LAKE SNOWS NORTH OF THE NEW
YORK STATE THRUWAY BETWEEN BUFFALO AND ABOUT THE MONTEZUMA WILDLIFE
RESEVE. THE STEADIEST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS NIAGARA...
ORLEANS...GENESEE AND MONROE COUNTIES WHERE ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE LAKE EFFECT IS FALLING FROM WEAK LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH
THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY FALLING BELOW THE REGIONAL NWS REGIONAL
DOPPLER BEAMS. THE ACTIVITY IS ACTUALLY BETTER SEEN ON SOME OF THE
IR IMAGERY...SFC OBS AND LOCAL MEDIA/TV RADARS. IN ANY CASE...OUR
ON-STATION 6KM MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDAY HOURS. HAVE THUS RAISED POPS FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD AND WILL BE SLOW TO KILL OFF THIS NUISANCE
ACTIVITY.

H85 TEMPS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
-12C...SO SFC TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE TEENS
(NORTH COUNTRY) AND LOWER 20S F. THESE REDINGS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 13
DEG F BELOW NORMAL MID DECEMBER VALUES.

TONIGHT...THE DIRTY RIDGE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST WHILE A VERY LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL COUPLE WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND BUILDING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THICKEN
THE CLOUD COVER WITH LIGHT SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE ACTIVITY REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. CAT POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FAR
WRN COUNTIES...BUT HAVE SHAVED POPS A BIT IN THE EAST. IN ANY
CASE...ALL AREAS SHOULD HAVE SNOW FALLING FROM THEIR SKY AS DAY
BREAKS ON SUNDAY.

ONE LAST THING FOR TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH SO
THAT OUR MIN TEMPS WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY WITH WARMING
ANTICIPATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WEST OF
ROCHESTER AND CANADAIGUA.

FOR SUNDAY...A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR A
COMBINATION OF SNOWFALL...STRONG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS LATER IN THE DAY. THE WATCH WILL ALSO EXTEND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE DEEP H5 CUTOFF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WHILE AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SFC LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SIGNIFICANT HGT FALLS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING
COMING DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL JET INDUCED
LIFT WILL COMPLIMENT A 45-5O KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL
BE FEEDING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT FOR THE REGION...WITH CAT POPS FOR
ALL.

THE H85 ZERO ISOTHERM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SRN TIER DURING
THE MORNING...BUT ALL THE SREF PLUMES AND MAIN OPERATIONAL MODEL
POINT SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORING AN ALL SNOW EVENT. WILL THUS NOT
INTRODUCE ANY MIXED PCPN INTO THE PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT...THE MOST IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY
SHOULD BE FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF
EIGHT INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE LESSER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
PROBABLY BE FOUND ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD CREATE REDUCED
VSBYS IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

THERE IS ALSO SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MAIN OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE PACKAGES...SO THE WATCH IS THE MOST PRUDENT WAY TO GO FOR
THE EVENT AT THIS POINT.

AS FAR AS THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...THE 00Z NAM IS THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. IT IS SHOWING A DEEPER UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER MAINE BY SUNDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS SHOWING
THE SAME H5 LOW OVER NEAR TORONTO. THE DIFFERENCE IN THE PLACEMENT
IS SUBSTANTIAL WITH HUGE DISPAIRITIES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...THEN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WOULD RESULT
IN A VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE PLUME OFF LK ERIE THAT WOULD DIRECTLY AND
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE BUF METRO AREA...WHILE THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING A WEAKER BAND ON A MORE WESTERLY FETCH. EAST OF LK
ONTARIO...A SIMILAR SCENARIO WOULD TAKE PLKACE WITH WATERTOWN BEING
TARGETED BY THE NAM WHILE THE TUG HILL AREA WOULD BE FAVORED BY THE
GFS. MORE DETAILS IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
BECOMES THE DOMINANT SURFACE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT...A VERY IMPRESSIVE
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SPREAD EAST INTO THE
AREA...RESULTING IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL TO NEAR
-18C BY MONDAY MORNING. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WELL-ALIGNED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND AN AREA OF DEEP WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS DROP IN TEMPS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LAKES. THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO THE 40-50 KT
RANGE IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...WHICH MIGHT TEND SHEAR APART THE
BANDS AS THEY TRY TO BECOME ORGANIZED...THEREBY LIMITING THEIR
INTENSITY AND RESULTING ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SAID...EXACTLY HOW MUCH
OF AN EFFECT THIS WOULD HAVE IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES.

AS FOR THE LOCATIONS OF THE LAKE SNOWS...OUR BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS
TIME IS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO BE OVER
THE BUFFALO METRO AREA OR JUST TO THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO THE SKI COUNTRY OF SOUTHERN
ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES AND WINDS VEER MORE WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY. OFF
LAKE ONTARIO...POTENTIALLY HEAVY LAKE SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE FORMING
EAST OF THE LAKE /POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE WATERTOWN AREA/ EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING...LINGERING THERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH TO THE WAYNE/NRN CAYUGA/OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER. OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
SNOWS...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/PRECIP WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL
LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

AS IF ALL OF THIS WAS NOT ENOUGH...WINDS WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR FACTOR
IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. WITH THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN AND
STRONG WINDS ALOFT NOTED ABOVE...BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45
MPH LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND FLAGS JUST YET AS THIS
WOULD MAINLY BE A 3RD TO 4TH PERIOD EVENT...BUT THIS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER FORECAST PACKAGES. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE
WINDS REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...THEY WILL BE PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW...AND GREATLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES...WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY WITHIN
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.

THEN ON MONDAY...A NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT
IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE SOUTHERN TIER OFF LAKE ERIE...AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO. THIS TIME PERIOD WILL ALSO NEED TO
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS IN THESE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH LESS SHEAR SUGGESTED IN THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUIETER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN DURING TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES REGION. ANY WEAK LINGERING
LAKE SNOWS FROM MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTH INTO THE BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN AREAS WITH TIME AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AS THE
LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...SHEAR INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY...AND DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES AT THE LOW LEVELS.

IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE PERIOD...BOTH THE 20/00Z
GFS AND ECWMF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER
GENERALLY PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST DURING WEDNESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE CHRISTMAS EVE. AS A RESULT...OUR
AREA WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENT...WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
RESULTING IN A FAIRLY STEADY WARMING TREND FROM TUESDAY EVENING
RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN PROJECTED SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPS FROM
BOTH MODELS...EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP START OUT AS SNOW
TUESDAY EVENING...THEN TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND EVENTUALLY
JUST PLAIN RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WARMS AT ALL LEVELS. THIS SHOULD THEN BE FOLLOWED BY COOLING
TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH THE PRECIP SHOULD
END QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION.

CHRISTMAS DAY ITSELF LOOKS GENERALLY BENIGN...COURTESY OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING AN END TO ANY CHANCE OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF THE AREA THEN EXPECTED TO BE
DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
AREAS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WHERE A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW OF
SEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT /850 MB TS OF -10C/ COULD TOUCH OFF SOME
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE ABOVE SAID...WILL INDICATE
NOTHING MORE THAN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AT THIS TIME...AS OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD THEN LOOKS AS IF IT WILL END WITH A GENERALLY
DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL FRIDAY...AS ANY STORM SYSTEMS
LOOK TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH...WITH RIDGING REMAINING
IN CONTROL ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST SNOW FROM FRIDAY/S SYNOPTIC WINTER SYSTEM IS EXITING NEW YORK
STATE TO THE EAST BUT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL ABOUT 09Z. COLD AIR ON NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO PICKING UP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHALLOW AND WEAK
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR ALL TAFS SITES
EXPLUDING KART. THE CEILINGS TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY...LIFTING LATER IN THE DAY TO VFR.

ANOTHER STRONG WINTER STORM WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUNDAY AND BRING A
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD AND LENGTHY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DURING
SUNDAY...THEN A PRONOUNCED LIKELIHOOD OF LAKE EFFECT NEGATIVELY
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...KBUF/KIAG/KART...DURING SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...IFR IN WIDESPREAD SNOW...BLOWING SNOW. STRONG WINDS.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN
RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED FROM ONTARIO PROVINCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
AND QUEBEC TODAY...BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS AND WAVES. WAVES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 4 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW THIS LEVEL BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...THE EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORES WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE UNTIL ITS NOONTIME
EXPIRATION.

LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A SECONDARY
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS LATTER SYSTEM TIGHTENS
AND COLD ADVECTION INCREASES THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER
MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WINDS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE...WITH GUSTS TO STORM FORCE BECOMING
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL THEN LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.

GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE LATTER HALF
OF THE 3RD PERIOD THROUGH THE 5TH PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...GALE
WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
         AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/WCH
MARINE...JJR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

NYZ001>003-013-014-021-210245-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING...DRIFTING AND VISIBILITY PROBLEMS.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS CAREFULLY...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-210245-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY....INCLUDING THE WATERTOWN AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
LIKELY WHICH WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING...DRIFTING AND
VISIBILITY PROBLEMS.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS CAREFULLY...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-210245-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010>012-019-020-085-210245-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...INCLUDING THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT. STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DRIFTING
AND LOW VISIBILITY.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS CAREFULLY...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-005-210245-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
941 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE ONTARIO LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHERE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL TOTALS. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY WHICH WILL CREATE
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING...DRIFTING AND VISIBILITY PROBLEMS.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD MONITOR
LATER FORECASTS CAREFULLY...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF