Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF A DIGGING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION...WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT TUESDAY...SO FAR THINGS SEEMING TO BE HAPPENING AS
FORECAST. DID DO A MINOR FCST UPDATE A BIT BEEN WARNING ON ONE
MASSIVE CELL MOVING ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...50KT GUST AT
POTSDAM. LAST 20 MINUTES RADAR LIGHTING UP ALL ACROSS ERN NY AS
SFC TEMPS INTO THE LOW 90S HAVE BUSTED THE WEAK CAP ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT MORE SVR STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAJOR THREATS BEING STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL. GONNA BE A VERY BUSY AFTERNOON FOR US ALL...

FARTHER TO THE WEST...2ND ROUND OF TSTMS JUST BEGINNING TO FIRE
ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. SO ATTM STILL LOOKING LIKE THAT ROUND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER THREAT OF STRONG WINDS. THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN BY 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LV TROF DEVELOPS ACRS NE CONUS
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H VORTS IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA ON
WEDS. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WL BE MUCH LWR BEHIND SFC COLD
FRNT ON WEDS AND THURS. OVERALL MOISTURE AND SFC INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...THEREFORE WL JUST MENTION SCHC TO CHC POPS ATTM...WITH
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE. 85H TEMPS AROUND 12C AND 925MB NEAR 17C
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS ON WEDS. ON
THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL PROVIDE CWA WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 607 AM EDT TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE GONE BELOW GRRIDED MOS POPS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY...BUT
MODELS SHOW A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE
GONE BELOW GRIIDED MOS POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE 18HRS AHEAD AS TWO DISTINCT LINES
OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AFFECT AREA. FIRST LINE TO CROSS
NRN NY INTO VT FROM 17-21Z...THEN SECOND LINE FROM 22-03Z AS SFC
COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION. ENHANCED LL SHEAR AND TURBULENCE...WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 70MPH POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS. CIGS GENERALLY
VFR...THOUGH LOWERING TO IFR IN ENHANCED CONVECTION. AS FRONT
CLEARS AREA OVERNIGHT...SVR THREAT TO END AS WINDS VEER TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A QUICK 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...GIVEN PWS
APPROACHING 1.75. SOME QUICK RISES IN SMALLER STREAM BASINS CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NO WIDESPREAD
OR LARGE STEM RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS ACRS OUR CWA FOR
6/10/08:
BTV...93F SET IN 1974
MPV...90F SET IN 1974
MSS...90F SET IN 1997
1V4...93F SET IN 1933
MMNV1...79F SET IN 1974

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...TABER
CLIMATE...TABER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1018 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-111430-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
1018 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 499 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR
TODAY. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER
REPORTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1031 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-102200-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...
KILLINGTON
1031 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...UNTIL 6PM THIS EVENING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WITH HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION...CONDITIONS ARE RIPE
FOR MANY OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO
THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS, AND SEEK
SAFE SHELTER SHOULD THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO, COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

JMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-101645-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHWESTERN ST.
LAWRENCE-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN
ESSEX-EASTERN CLINTON-WESTERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
INCLUDING...CANTON...MALONE...MASSENA...NEWCOMB...OGDENSBURG...
PLATTSBURGH...POTSDAM AND SARANAC LAKE
1046 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...

AT 1042 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW YORK MOVING NORTHEAST AT
48 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE REACHING SOUTHWESTERN SAINT LAWRENCE
COUNTY BY SHORTLY AFTER NOON.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS WHICH ARE DOWNING
TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR
VEHICLE IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
OF 35 MPH OR HIGHER MAY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

JAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RUSSELL                 44.43N 75.15W
06/10/2008                   ST. LAWRENCE       NY   PUBLIC

            WINDSPREAD TREES DOWN.

1250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLTON                  44.55N 74.94W
06/10/2008                   ST. LAWRENCE       NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

1259 PM     TSTM WND GST     POTSDAM                 44.67N 74.99W
06/10/2008  M58.00 MPH       ST. LAWRENCE       NY   AWOS

0115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SARANAC LAKE            44.33N 74.13W
06/10/2008                   FRANKLIN           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            30 INCH TREE BROKEN OFF

&&

GERALDM