Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL COME TO AN END AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER WILL SETTLE DOWN LATER
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT TUESDAY...AS EXPECTED PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WX EVENT UNDERWAY. FIRST STORMS THAT ROLLED INTO WRN NY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ONE OF THOSE STORMS
CONTINUED INTO CANADA AND BROUGHT 60KT WIND GUST TO DORVAL APRT IN
MONTREAL. HOW ABOUT THAT. ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRED IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY ABOUT 2PM AS THEY HIT THE JUICY AIRMASS. MESOANALYSIS
SHOWED CAPES IN THE 2500-3500 J/KG2 RANGE ACROSS THE VALLEY AND
THAT HELPED THE STORMS EXPLODE. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE SO FAR. STILL LOTS OF ENERGY ACROSS THE REST OF
VERMONT SO NO CHANCE THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING ANYTIME
SOON. HAVE ADDED IN PRE-1ST PERIOD WORDING FOR THE LATE AFTN/EVG
SVR TSTM THREAT.

LOOKING WEST...ITS NOT OVER WITH YET. MAIN COLD FRONT JUST MOVING
ACROSS ONTARIO AND RADAR TRENDS STARTING TO FILL IN. BIG QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH RECOVERY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE IN ORDER TO BRING
MORE SEVERE WX TO THE REGION. FEELING HERE IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SUN TO RE-ENERGIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NRN NY THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...SO CONTINUE WITH THREAT FOR SVR WX AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WONT BE AS UNSTABLE AS IT WAS
EARLIER...THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF STRONGER DYNAMICS SO
AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON TO BACK OFF OF IDEA OF THE EVG ROUND OF
SEVERE WX.

SHWRS/TSTMS WILL END ABOUT 00Z IN THE WEST AND 06Z IN THE EAST
THEN MUCH CALMER WEATHER STARTS BUILDING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT TUESDAY...NOT A HUGE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT 850 TEMPS DROP TO THE 8-10C RANGE. GOOD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE 70S. PRETTY GOOD MIXING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO IT MAY BE A LITTLE BREEZY. HAVE PAINTED IN SMALL
CHC OF AFTN SHWRS UP ALONG THE BORDER. MODELS SHOWING SOME MINOR
INSTABILITY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES BY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...SO ANY SHOWERS THAT DO HAPPEN WILL BE ISOLATED. POPS
ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO SHOW UP IN THE ZFP WORDS...BUT THEYLL BE IN
THE GRIDS FOR THE GRAPHICAL AND POINT AND CLICK FANS. TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY...AT LEAST FROM WHAT WEVE
ENDURED. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 259 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL SOLNS
REMAIN IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING TWO DISTINCT FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE DAY 4-7 TIME FRAME. FIRST
AND POTENTIALLY MORE DYNAMIC OF THE TWO TO APPROACH AND CROSS NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN ALONG
WITH ROBUST LIFT AND CHANNELED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC
BNDRY SHOULD LEAD TO SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. OVERALL SYNOPTIC
WIND FIELDS APPEAR RATHER WEAK ...SO THREAT OF SVR APPEARS
MARGINAL ATTM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LAST NIGHT/S EURO SOLN DID
OFFER SLOWER TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE...AND WERE IT TO VERIFY
FROPA WOULD BE 08-16HRS SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDS BY LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE. THEREAFTER...SECOND
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO AREA BY DAY 7(TUESDAY) WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND CHCS OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE 18HRS AHEAD AS TWO DISTINCT LINES
OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AFFECT AREA. FIRST LINE TO CROSS
NRN NY INTO VT FROM 17-21Z...THEN SECOND LINE FROM 22-03Z AS SFC
COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION. ENHANCED LL SHEAR AND TURBULENCE...WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 70MPH POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS. CIGS GENERALLY
VFR...THOUGH LOWERING TO IFR IN ENHANCED CONVECTION. AS FRONT
CLEARS AREA OVERNIGHT...SVR THREAT TO END AS WINDS VEER TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1018 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-111430-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
1018 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 499 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR
TODAY. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER
REPORTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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