Tornado Warning 200, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 242046
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
246 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

ALC091-242056-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0200.000000T0000Z-081224T2115Z/
MARENGO AL-
246 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MARENGO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3246 8752 3275 8729 3276 8726 3260 8710
      3239 8752 3244 8752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 228DEG 34KT 3245 8747

$$

ALC047-105-242115-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0200.000000T0000Z-081224T2115Z/
DALLAS AL-PERRY AL-
246 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CST FOR PERRY AND
NORTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTIES...

AT 245 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR UNIONTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  VALDEN BY 300 PM CST...
  HAMBURG BY 305 PM CST...
  RED FORD AND MARION BY 310 PM CST...
  SPROTT BY 315 PM CST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3246 8752 3275 8729 3276 8726 3260 8710
      3239 8752 3244 8752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 228DEG 34KT 3245 8747

$$

12/SIRMON

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 242100
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
300 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

ALC047-242110-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0200.000000T0000Z-081224T2115Z/
DALLAS AL-
300 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3248 8736 3249 8742 3273 8723 3260 8710
      3252 8726
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 228DEG 34KT 3250 8736

$$

ALC105-242115-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0200.000000T0000Z-081224T2115Z/
PERRY AL-
300 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CST FOR CENTRAL
PERRY COUNTY...

AT 258 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR VALDEN...OR ABOUT 8 MILES
EAST OF UNIONTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  HAMBURG BY 305 PM CST...
  RED FORD AND SPROTT BY 315 PM CST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3248 8736 3249 8742 3273 8723 3260 8710
      3252 8726
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 228DEG 34KT 3250 8736

$$

12/SIRMON

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 242109
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
309 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

ALC105-242119-
/O.EXP.KBMX.TO.W.0200.000000T0000Z-081224T2115Z/
PERRY AL-
309 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY EXPIRES AT 315 PM
CST...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED. THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE
WARNING HAVE WEAKENED.

LAT...LON 3248 8736 3249 8742 3273 8723 3260 8710
      3252 8726
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 228DEG 34KT 3256 8728

$$

12/SIRMON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 AM CST WED DEC 24 2008

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM FOCUS REMAINS THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF ALL GOES WELL...BMX
WILL HAVE AN 18Z SOUNDING TO HELP ASSESS THE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...LATEST SURFACE AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS INTACT
SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT RUNS FROM WESTERN
KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF TEXAS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SCREAM NORTHWARD ON GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS REACHING UP INTO MID-MISSISSIPPI.
TEMPERATURES ARE BALMY...WITH MID-70S IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AT 11
AM...THE MERCURY SHOT UP TO 71 AT MONTGOMERY. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
AREA WEBCAMS SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS WELL.

STILL BELIEVE WE ARE LOOKING AT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE AREA PREVIOUSLY HIGHLIGHTED STILL A GOOD
OUTLINE. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE THE
WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES.
STILL...THIS WEAKENING FRONT AND SHEAR AXIS IS APPROACHING DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND BEARS WATCHING. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION STILL
ONGOING OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
MUCAPES ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SAME AREA. LATEST RUC13 IS
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS AS WE WERE LOOKING
AT YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LOW END
THREAT.

AS FOR LOCATION AND TIMING...RIGHT NOW FOCUSED ON TWO POSSIBLE AREAS
OF CONCERN. THE FIRST AREA IS IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...SUMTER/GREENE/HALE/MARENGO COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT ISOLATED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES. THE OTHER THREAT WILL BE THE ACTUAL SQUALL LINE ITSELF.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN MARION
COUNTY AROUND 1PM...WITH THE HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE LINE ARRIVING
BY 2 PM. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD REACH JASPER BETWEEN 3PM AND
4PM ...TUSCALOOSA AROUND 4PM... AND BIRMINGHAM AROUND 5PM. WE WILL
ALSO BE WATCHING CLOSELY FOR ANY ENHANCEMENT IN SEVERE POTENTIAL
JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE SOUTH AND WEST OF TUSCALOOSA...WHERE
THE BEST INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY. STILL EXPECT THE THREAT TO
DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY BETWEEN 6PM AND 8PM...AS DYNAMICS WEAKEN
EVEN FURTHER...ANY ENHANCEMENT FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

JD/81

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CEILINGS OF AROUND 1500 FT HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SOME SLIGHT VARIATION EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE SOUTH AND ARE STILL GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST...AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE SOUTH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO TCL AND BHM AFTER 22Z...AND SHOULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 03Z. ISOLATED TS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...INCLUDING TCL, BHM, AND EET.  FRONTAL
PASSAGE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 2-3Z IN BHM AND TCL...WITH
THE FRONT REACHING MGM AND TOI BETWEEN 08-10Z.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TO THE NORTH AFTER 06Z.  FRONT WILL
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF MGM/TOI...SO DECIDED TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.

19/TNG

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 6 PM.

&&

81/41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
109 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-251909-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
109 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THE WINDS BEGIN DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 59 THROUGH 8 PM. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR JASPER AROUND
3:30 PM...TUSCALOOSA NEAR 4 PM...AND BIRMINGHAM NEAR 5 PM. THERE
IS A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IN SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LOW TOPPED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...
WHICH MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO. FINALLY...AS THE SQUALL LINE
AND AREA OF INSTABILITY CONVERGE OVER WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7
PM FOR THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONGER. BY 8 PM...THE SQUALL LINE AND
ANY REMAINING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE LIMITED NATURE OF THE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...NO WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JD/81

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
211 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

ALZ032>034-242045-
BIBB-HALE-PERRY-
211 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BIBB...HALE AND PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL
245 PM CST...

AT 206 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF GREENSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  MORGAN SPRINGS.
  ELLARDS.
  HARRISBURG.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

12/SIRMON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
220 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

ALZ011-012-242100-
LAMAR-MARION-
220 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LAMAR AND MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 300
PM CST...

AT 218 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RUSSELLVILLE TO AMORY...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  SHOTSVILLE.
  WESTON.
  SULLIGENT.
  RANKIN FITE AIRPORT.
  TESSNER.
  PIKEVILLE.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.