Severe Thunderstorm Warning 493, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
341 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIP JUST NOW CROSSING INTO THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM...AND IT WILL BE RE-EVALUATED WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH DEW
POINTS ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85 DUE TO FAVORABLE
SHEAR...BUT STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BE NEAR THE TCL-BHM-ANB CORRIDOR BY 6
PM. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
NOT PUSH IT ON THROUGH...SO CONTINUED THE TREND OF KEEPING SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM. THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THIS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP BY
10-15 DEGREES ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE 30S. SOME LOCATIONS COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

19

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CEILINGS OF AROUND 1500 FT HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SOME SLIGHT VARIATION EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE SOUTH AND ARE STILL GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST...AND ARE NOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE SOUTH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO TCL AND BHM AFTER 22Z...AND SHOULD
REACH THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 03Z. ISOLATED TS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...INCLUDING TCL, BHM, AND EET.  FRONTAL
PASSAGE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 2-3Z IN BHM AND TCL...WITH
THE FRONT REACHING MGM AND TOI BETWEEN 08-10Z.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TO THE NORTH AFTER 06Z.  FRONT WILL
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF MGM/TOI...SO DECIDED TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  58  50  70  55 / 100  20  40  30  20
ANNISTON    49  60  51  70  55 / 100  20  40  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  47  59  52  71  57 / 100  30  40  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  48  62  54  75  58 /  90  30  40  20  20
CALERA      50  61  54  73  58 /  90  30  40  20  20
AUBURN      52  63  52  71  54 /  60  40  40  20  20
MONTGOMERY  57  68  57  78  60 /  60  40  40  20  20
TROY        58  70  56  76  59 /  60  30  40  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 6 PM.

&&

19/19/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
109 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-251909-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
109 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THE WINDS BEGIN DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 59 THROUGH 8 PM. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR JASPER AROUND
3:30 PM...TUSCALOOSA NEAR 4 PM...AND BIRMINGHAM NEAR 5 PM. THERE
IS A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IN SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LOW TOPPED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...
WHICH MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO. FINALLY...AS THE SQUALL LINE
AND AREA OF INSTABILITY CONVERGE OVER WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7
PM FOR THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONGER. BY 8 PM...THE SQUALL LINE AND
ANY REMAINING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH
WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE LIMITED NATURE OF THE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...NO WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JD/81

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