Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 101914
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
114 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

ALC063-065-125-101930-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080110T1930Z/
HALE AL-GREENE AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-
114 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA...EAST CENTRAL GREENE AND NORTHERN HALE
COUNTIES...

AT 109 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WEDGEWORTH...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GREENSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HARPER HILL BY 125 PM CST...
  MOUNDVILLE AIRPORT...MOUNDVILLE...ELLIOTS CREEK AND 7 MILES WEST OF
  PHIPPS BY 130 PM CST...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3310 8761 3295 8745 3272 8777 3285 8791
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 227DEG 36KT 3285 8776

$$

12/SIRMON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

.UPDATE...FOR MESOSCALE DISCUSSION.

&&

.MESOSCALE...

CURRENTLY...LOOKING AT RAPID DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS SEVERAL SPOTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST HAVE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD COVER.  THIS IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO INCREASE IN SPOTTY
LOCATIONS.  SURGING DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO A CONCERN...AS THE SOUTHWEST
HAS SEEN STATIONS IN THE MIDDLE 60S...WHILE FURTHER NORTH IT IS
CLOSER TO THE 60 MARK.  ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL FURTHER THE CAUSE OF INCREASING SURFACE BASED CAPE.
CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 500 IN GENERAL WITH POCKETS CLOSER TO 1000 IN
THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS.

AS FOR WIND SHEAR...THE BULK SHEAR CONTINUES HIGHEST OVER NEARLY THE
SAME PLACES...OUT WEST AND TO THE SOUTHWEST.  BOTH THE 0 TO 3KM AND
THE MORE CRITICAL FOR LASTING TORNADOES 0 TO 1KM SHEAR ARE NEAR THE
350 OR SO MARK.

BOTH OF THESE CRITICAL ELEMENTS MEAN SEVERAL THINGS...THE FIRST
BEING THAT ORDINARY CELLS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE BEING
SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AND THE SECOND IS THAT A MAJORITY OF CELLS
WILL BE LONG LASTING. THE CELLS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST HAVE ALSO SHOWN BOTH OF THESE TRENDS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON THESE PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST AND SETUP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA.  QUESTION
MARKS STILL HAMPER ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS WILL BE A
CRITICAL ELEMENT IN KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PARAMETERS HIGH ENOUGH FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THIS WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM.

17/KLAWS

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING IN TCL AROUND 18Z TO 19Z AND NEAR TOI BY 22Z. A
STRONG SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATER THIS EVENING
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS LINE SHOULD REACH TCL NEAR
23Z AND TOI BETWEEN 04Z AND 05Z.  WINDS WILL SHIFT BEHIND THIS LINE
TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY.

THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SKIES SHOULD
BE BKN TO OVC MVFR/VFR WITH VIS 5 TO P6SM BASED ON VCSH AND VCTS.
ALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 15Z FRIDAY WITH AREAWIDE
VFR.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM CST.

&&

17/88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-111230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1220 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH 3 PM.
AREAS WEST INTERSTATE 65 WILL BE AFFECTED MAINLY THROUGH 10 PM.
AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WILL BE AFFECTED MAINLY AFTER 3
PM...WITH AREAS IN EXTREME EASTERN ALABAMA AFFECTED UNTIL 2 AM
FRIDAY MORNING.

THIS EVENT IS DEVELOPING INTO A DANGEROUS SITUATION.  THERE HAVE
BEEN MULTIPLE REPORTS OF STORM DAMAGE IN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AS
STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE
HAIL.

IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT TRAVEL BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM AS THE STORMS
APPROACH YOUR AREA...AND THAT YOU ARE ABLE TO GET TO A SAFE BUILDING
IN SHORT NOTICE.

STAY TUNED TO FURTHER STATEMENTS REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL DANGEROUS
WEATHER SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL
BE NECESSARY THROUGH 2 AM FRIDAY.

STEFKOVICH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1238 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

ALZ033-039-101930-
MARENGO-PERRY-
1238 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MARENGO AND PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 130
PM CST...

AT 1230 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WOODS BLUFF...OR 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GROVE HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PUTNAM.
  NICHOLSVILLE.
  DIXONS MILL.
  MILLER.
  SHILOH.
  MAGNOLIA.

A FUNNEL CLOUD HAS BEEN REPORTED ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IN
CHOCTAW COUNTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

12/SIRMON