Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
641 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION COULD POSSIBLY SEE RAIN.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND TONIGHT...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY UP IN THE LOW 70S. TOMORROW...HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.

14

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE THOUGHTS REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE EXTENDED PACKAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF
POINTING TOWARD A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED MEAN FLOW THAN THE
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED GFS. WILL GENERALLY TAKE A MIXED APPROACH
COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. THESE MODELS INDICATE A CHANGE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE UPPER RIDGE CELL RECENTERS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW.

HIGH MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
STILL ADVERTISED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE A
FEW STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS ATMOSPHERE IS
NEARLY SATURATED. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST OF
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...FEEL POPS WILL BE HIGHEST WITH THE ADDED
CONVERGENCE FROM THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALOFT ENHANCING
LIFT. BUT STILL EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS DUE TO HIGH
MOISTURE AND BOUNDARIES AIDING LIFT.

AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. I DO THINK THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR BUT I JUST
SLOWED IT DOWN JUST A BIT COMPARED TO THE GFS SOLUTION. SO FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEPT THINGS DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS.

75/LINHARES

&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

TSRA AROUND ALL SITES IN THE CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 02Z
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARED OUT BY 06Z.  REFLECTED LOWER VIS
AT THE USUAL SUSPECTS...TCL...ANB AND TOI...WHERE CAN EXPECT IFR
BEGINNING AROUND 09Z AND LIFTING BY 12Z.  THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH OF
THE SAME...POP UP SHOWERS AROUND THE ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING AROUND
17Z.  WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION...CB PLACED WITH VCTS FOR
EVERYONE.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  89  69  89  69 /  30  30  20  50  40
ANNISTON    69  89  68  87  69 /  30  40  30  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  71  89  72  87  71 /  20  30  20  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  72  91  70  89  71 /  20  30  20  50  40
CALERA      70  89  70  87  70 /  20  30  20  50  40
AUBURN      70  89  70  86  68 /  30  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  71  89  70  88  71 /  30  40  30  50  40
TROY        69  89  68  88  70 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

14/75/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-121030-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
530 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
BETWEEN NOON AND 9 PM. A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
DURING AND JUST AFTER THE MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY. STRONG WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND HAIL ARE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL:
BIRMINGHAM...MODERATE.
MONTGOMERY...MODERATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
537 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

ALZ024-112315-
JEFFERSON-
537 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 531 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR CENTER POINT...OR NEAR TRUSSVILLE...MOVING WEST AT
3 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
539 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

ALZ017-026-112330-
BLOUNT-ST. CLAIR-
539 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BLOUNT AND ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

AT 531 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF ASHVILLE...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ONEONTA...MOVING WEST AT 3 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
609 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

ALZ044-120000-
MONTGOMERY-
609 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM
CDT...

AT 603 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SNOWDOUN...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  SNOWDOUN.
  PINTLALA.
  HOPE HULL.
  WOODCREST.
  MAXWELL AIR FORCE BASE.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

KSL

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