Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION COULD POSSIBLY SEE RAIN.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND TONIGHT...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY UP IN THE LOW 70S. TOMORROW...HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.

14

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE THOUGHTS REMAIN THE SAME FOR THE EXTENDED PACKAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF
POINTING TOWARD A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED MEAN FLOW THAN THE
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED GFS. WILL GENERALLY TAKE A MIXED APPROACH
COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. THESE MODELS INDICATE A CHANGE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE UPPER RIDGE CELL RECENTERS ITSELF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW.

HIGH MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
STILL ADVERTISED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE A
FEW STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AS ATMOSPHERE IS
NEARLY SATURATED. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST OF
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...FEEL POPS WILL BE HIGHEST WITH THE ADDED
CONVERGENCE FROM THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALOFT ENHANCING
LIFT. BUT STILL EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS DUE TO HIGH
MOISTURE AND BOUNDARIES AIDING LIFT.

AS PATTERN TRANSITIONS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. I DO THINK THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR BUT I JUST
SLOWED IT DOWN JUST A BIT COMPARED TO THE GFS SOLUTION. SO FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEPT THINGS DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS.

75/LINHARES

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL AVIATION TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
SO A SUDDEN WIND SHEAR CHANGE AND HAIL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-STORM
ENVIRONMENT.  MUCH OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HIGHER RAINFALL. DID NOT INCLUDE
LOWER VISIBILITIES IN THIS ISSUANCE.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  89  69  89  69 /  30  30  20  50  40
ANNISTON    69  89  68  87  69 /  30  40  30  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  71  89  72  87  71 /  20  30  20  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  72  91  70  89  71 /  20  30  20  50  40
CALERA      70  89  70  87  70 /  20  30  20  50  40
AUBURN      70  89  70  86  68 /  30  40  30  50  40
MONTGOMERY  71  89  70  88  71 /  30  40  30  50  40
TROY        69  89  68  88  70 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

14/75/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-121030-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
530 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
BETWEEN NOON AND 9 PM. A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
DURING AND JUST AFTER THE MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY. STRONG WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND HAIL ARE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL:
BIRMINGHAM...MODERATE.
MONTGOMERY...MODERATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
357 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

ALZ036-112130-
COOSA-
357 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR COOSA COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 352 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR COTTAGE GROVE...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF EQUALITY...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  COTTAGE GROVE.
  PENTONVILLE.
  HISSOP.
  CREWSVILLE.
  BENTLEYVILLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

HA

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
432 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

ALZ036-112215-
COOSA-
432 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR COOSA COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 428 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR COTTAGE GROVE...OR NEAR ROCKFORD...MOVING WEST AT
10 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  HISSOP.
  PENTONVILLE.
  ROCKFORD.
  HANOVER.
  BENTLEYVILLE.
  LYLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

KSL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
433 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

ALZ028-112215-
CLAY-
433 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLAY COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 430 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF WOODSTOCK...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF
GOODWATER. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.