Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 110643
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
143 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

ALC009-015-055-073-115-121-110700-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-080511T0700Z/
TALLADEGA AL-JEFFERSON AL-CALHOUN AL-ST. CLAIR AL-ETOWAH AL-BLOUNT 
AL-143 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BLOUNT...ETOWAH...ST. CLAIR...NORTHWESTERN
CALHOUN...NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTH CENTRAL TALLADEGA
COUNTIES...

AT 139 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROCKLEDGE TO ARGO...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF GADSDEN TO TRUSSVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 49 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WILSONIA...BIG WILLS CREEK...WILLIAMS AND NORTHSIDE BY 150 AM
  CDT...
  CROPWELL...PELL CITY...WATTSVILLE AND SOUTHSIDE BY 155 AM CDT...
  MARKTON AND COBB CITY BY 200 AM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW 
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3421 8584 3413 8584 3413 8580 3392 8573
      3368 8603 3354 8607 3355 8654 3353 8664
      3373 8672 3385 8663 3391 8637 3420 8618
TIME...MOT...LOC 0643Z 270DEG 43KT 3409 8602 3366 8648

$$

17/KLAWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1216 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM....OVERNIGHT

IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION JUST PASSING THROUGH THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA AT
THIS WRITING...WITH AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY NOTED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF LARGE SUPERCELL SOUTH OF TUNICA. VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH SHEAR AND HIGH CAPE.
LUCKILY THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS HELD FOR THE MOST PART SO FAR.
SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND THE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF SAID BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE AND WEAKEN THE CAP. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA JUST AFTER 11
PM...BUT A TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT BOWING STRUCTURE MAY TAKE
PLACE. THEREFORE...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES ALL
REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE NIGHT SO STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

75

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS EAST ALABAMA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
NO LATER THAN 9 AM. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
AREA QUICKLY DUE TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. MAIN CHANGE TO
FORECAST WAS TO END RAIN SOONER ACROSS WEST ALABAMA WITH RAIN
GONE FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 12 NOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND FRONT WILL PRODUCE BRISK WEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY ONCE SEVERE THREAT IS OUT
OF AREA. A DRY AND RATHER COOL AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY DUE TO GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING SURFACE LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES EAST OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANY CONVECTION AND
REMOVED SMALL RAIN CHANCES WEST. A FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE WILL TRY AND PHASE UP WITH CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. MODELS SHOW CLOSED UPPER LOW GETS LEFT BEHIND
AS NORTHERN TROF PULLS EASTWARD...AND SO A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
SAG TOWARDS ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER
NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. GFS IS SHOWING TO MUCH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WITH THIS SYSTEM AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS
STATES AND THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL PICK UP CUT-OFF LOW.
THIS PHASING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POSITION OF BOUNDARY
FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL BE CRITICAL TO POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS ALABAMA. DUE TO TIMING AND ISSUES RELATED TO
PLACEMENT OF FOCUS MECHANISM...POPS HELD BELOW 50 PERCENT...BUT
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE CONFIDENCE GROWS IN
MODEL OUTPUT.

UPPER TROF SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS AND COOLER CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING IN A LOT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACORDINGLY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME VERY STRONG WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...STILL EXPECTING SUSTAINED GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.

10/ARM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1031 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-120331-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1031 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT LEAST
THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.

NIGHTTIME SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. PLEASE MAKE
SURE THAT YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO HAS CHARGED BATTERIES AND STAY
TUNED TO LATER THIS EVENING IF ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ENDING MUCH OF THE THREAT BY NOON. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA
WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 ON SUNDAY
MORNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH.
SOME TYPE OF WIND ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

FINALLY...THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT.  IF
CONFIDENCE LATER INCREASES...THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY NEED
TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
REQUIRED WILL BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

10/ARM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1224 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 AM     HAIL             5 N HALEYVILLE          34.31N 87.62W
05/11/2008  E0.75 INCH       WINSTON            AL   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED 5 MILES NORTH OF HALEYVILLE ON
            FRANKLIN/WINSTON COUNTY LINE.

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DOUBLE SPRINGS          34.15N 87.40W
05/11/2008                   WINSTON            AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED IN DOUBLE SPRINGS.

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1241 AM     HAIL             5 ENE JASPER            33.88N 87.19W
05/11/2008  E0.75 INCH       WALKER             AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BOLDO.

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1241 AM     TSTM WND DMG     JASPER                  33.85N 87.27W
05/11/2008                   WALKER             AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES AT 1911 BENNET ROAD IN
            JASPER.

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1253 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 AM     HAIL             COLUMBIANA              33.18N 86.60W
05/11/2008  E0.75 INCH       SHELBY             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN COLUMBIANA

&&

GGOGGINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1256 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ENE JASPER            33.88N 87.19W
05/11/2008                   WALKER             AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES IN BOLDO.

&&

GGOGGINS