Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 110412
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1112 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

ALC057-075-093-127-133-110500-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-080511T0500Z/
FAYETTE AL-WALKER AL-LAMAR AL-WINSTON AL-MARION AL-
1112 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR MARION...WINSTON...LAMAR...NORTHWESTERN WALKER AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES...

AT 1109 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF WESTON TO 12 MILES WEST
OF BEDFORD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF HAMILTON
TO 8 MILES EAST OF ABERDEEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 49 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BEDFORD...PINE SPRINGS...HENSON SPRINGS AND SULLIGENT BY 1120 PM
  CDT...
  BRINN...PIKEVILLE...PEARCES MILL AND PEA RIDGE BY 1125 PM CDT...
  PINEY GROVE AND LAKE BUTTAHATCHEE BY 1130 PM CDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3427 8819 3433 8816 3431 8709 3426 8710
      3352 8785 3355 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0412Z 311DEG 42KT 3423 8796 3382 8838

$$

17/KLAWS

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 110432
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

ALC057-075-093-127-133-110500-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-080511T0500Z/
FAYETTE AL-WALKER AL-LAMAR AL-WINSTON AL-MARION AL-
1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR MARION...WINSTON...LAMAR...NORTHWESTERN WALKER AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES...

AT 1127 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TESSNER TO PEA RIDGE TO
SULLIGENT...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF
HALEYVILLE TO 7 MILES NORTH OF WINFIELD TO SULLIGENT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  STAR BY 1135 PM CDT...
  DELMAR...MELBORNE...HIGHTOGY AND BLUFF BY 1140 PM CDT...
  WEISS...CODY...MILLPORT AND NATURAL BRIDGE BY 1145 PM CDT...
  KENNEDY BY 1150 PM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3427 8819 3433 8816 3431 8709 3426 8710
      3352 8785 3355 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 307DEG 45KT 3420 8773 3400 8777
          3388 8806

$$

03

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 110445
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1144 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

ALC057-075-093-127-133-110500-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-080511T0500Z/
FAYETTE AL-WALKER AL-LAMAR AL-WINSTON AL-MARION AL-
1144 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR MARION...WINSTON...LAMAR...NORTHWESTERN WALKER AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES...

AT 1141 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DELMAR TO ELDRIDGE TO BLUFF...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF LYNN TO LYNN TO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WINFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CLEAR CREEK...DOUBLE SPRINGS...HOUSTON RECREATIONAL AREA AND
  RICHARD ARTHUR FIELD BY 1150 PM CDT...
  BLACK POND...CURTIS CROSSROADS...CORINTH REC AREA AND POPLAR
  SPRINGS BY 1155 PM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA.

LAT...LON 3427 8819 3433 8816 3431 8709 3426 8710
      3352 8785 3355 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 0444Z 298DEG 51KT 3412 8754 3398 8757
          3383 8786

$$

03

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
952 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

.UPDATE...TONIGHT DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM....OVERNIGHT

IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION JUST PASSING THROUGH THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA AT
THIS WRITING...WITH AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY NOTED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF LARGE SUPERCELL SOUTH OF TUNICA. VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH SHEAR AND HIGH CAPE.
LUCKILY THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS HELD FOR THE MOST PART SO FAR.
SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND THE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF SAID BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE AND WEAKEN THE CAP. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA JUST AFTER 11
PM...BUT A TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT BOWING STRUCTURE MAY TAKE
PLACE. THEREFORE...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES ALL
REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE NIGHT SO STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

75

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS EAST ALABAMA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
NO LATER THAN 9 AM. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
AREA QUICKLY DUE TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. MAIN CHANGE TO
FORECAST WAS TO END RAIN SOONER ACROSS WEST ALABAMA WITH RAIN
GONE FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA BY 12 NOON. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND FRONT WILL PRODUCE BRISK WEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY ONCE SEVERE THREAT IS OUT
OF AREA. A DRY AND RATHER COOL AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY DUE TO GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING SURFACE LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES EAST OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANY CONVECTION AND
REMOVED SMALL RAIN CHANCES WEST. A FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE WILL TRY AND PHASE UP WITH CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. MODELS SHOW CLOSED UPPER LOW GETS LEFT BEHIND
AS NORTHERN TROF PULLS EASTWARD...AND SO A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL
SAG TOWARDS ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER
NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA. GFS IS SHOWING TO MUCH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WITH THIS SYSTEM AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS
STATES AND THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL PICK UP CUT-OFF LOW.
THIS PHASING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POSITION OF BOUNDARY
FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL BE CRITICAL TO POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS ALABAMA. DUE TO TIMING AND ISSUES RELATED TO
PLACEMENT OF FOCUS MECHANISM...POPS HELD BELOW 50 PERCENT...BUT
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE CONFIDENCE GROWS IN
MODEL OUTPUT.

UPPER TROF SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS AND COOLER CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL
REMAIN CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST BHM...ANB...EET AND TCL WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS LINE. BASED MY TIMING ON WHEN THE LINE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. THREW IN A ONE HOUR
TEMPO ON WHERE THE WORSE OF THE WEATHER COULD OCCUR. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR HOW THINGS UNFOLD TONIGHT AND WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AS
IF NEEDED.

ONE THING TO NOTE...EXPECT SOME VERY STRONG WINDS TOMORROW AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH AFTER 18Z.

10/ARM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1031 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-120331-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1031 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT LEAST
THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.

NIGHTTIME SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. PLEASE MAKE
SURE THAT YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO HAS CHARGED BATTERIES AND STAY
TUNED TO LATER THIS EVENING IF ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ENDING MUCH OF THE THREAT BY NOON. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA
WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 ON SUNDAY
MORNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH.
SOME TYPE OF WIND ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

FINALLY...THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT.  IF
CONFIDENCE LATER INCREASES...THEN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY NEED
TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
REQUIRED WILL BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

10/ARM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
741 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

ALZ017-018-026-110130-
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-ST. CLAIR-
741 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BLOUNT...ETOWAH AND ST. CLAIR
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 741 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS ARE
TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ASHVILLE
TO ROSA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES WEST OF MARKTON TO
CLEVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  WHITNEY JUNCTION.
  HORSE PENS FORTY.
  STEELE.
  WILLIAMS.
  RAMSEY.
  HOWELTON.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHERN ALABAMA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.