Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
652 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HE REMNANTS OF FAY. UNLIKE
SUNDAY...EXPECT THERE TO BE MORE COVERAGE AND MORE LIKELY SEVERAL
RAIN BANDS. THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TODAY...RESULTING IN NEARLY 100 POPS AREA WIDE. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST. IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXPERIENCED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TODAY...MAIN RAIN BAND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AN ENHANCED RAIN BAND WILL BEGIN TO WORK
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
THIS WILL BEGIN THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND WE GET SOME HEATING ACROSS
THE EAST AND NORTH A SECOND RAIN BAND WILL GET GOING. ACTIVITY
ALONG THIS BAND MAY BE MORE ISOLATED AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THEY GET GOING. BY LATE AFTERNOON...
LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENTLY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH
7 AM TUESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE
REMNANTS OF FAY...MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HOLD FOR NOW...AS TUESDAY WILL LIKELY NOT
INCLUDE ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THAT SAID...COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN...IF THIS
MATERIALIZES...THERE WILL BE SOME POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING ISSUES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY THURSDAY...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE CLEAR OF IMPACTS FROM
FAY...BUT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE BACK IN PLACE...SO HAVE
KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BY SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA AND INCREASE THE RAINFALL CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

16

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THIS FCST TO BE BLEAK AS RAINS AND LOW CEILING ONCE AGAIN ROTATING
INTO CENTRAL AL. WILL GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...AND LOWER TO IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...AND SHIFTING FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AS REMNANTS OF FAY SLOWLY TREKS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE
ELECTED TO NOT INCLUDE TS/CB WORDING AT ANY SITE...BUT ATMOSPHERE IS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO POP OFF A STROKE OR TWO OF LTG...AND HAS ENOUGH
SHEAR TO PRODUCE SHALLOW TORNADOES.

JONES/90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     81  71  80  70  86 / 100  90  80  50  40
ANNISTON    82  71  81  72  86 / 100  90  90  60  40
BIRMINGHAM  82  72  82  72  87 / 100  90  80  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  81  73  84  73  91 / 100  80  70  40  30
CALERA      82  71  83  71  87 / 100  90  80  50  40
AUBURN      82  71  78  70  86 / 100  80  90  50  40
MONTGOMERY  83  72  83  73  88 / 100  80  70  50  40
TROY        83  72  83  73  87 /  90  80  70  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
BETWEEN 7 AM MONDAY AND 7 AM TUESDAY FOR ALL AREAS.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
600 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

ALZ011>015-017>050-261100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
600 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ENHANCED RAIN BANDS TURNING AROUND THE REMNANTS OF FAY.
ADDITIONALLY...BE AWARE THAT THESE TROPICAL SHOWERS PRODUCE VERY
LITTLE LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.

THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THESE HEAVY RAIN BANDS MOVE
UP INTO THE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
RAIN BANDS TURN AROUND THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF FAY...IN EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FAY EXITS THE AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
AMOUNTS...AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
ENHANCED RAIN BANDS. HOWEVER...AN ADDITION BUT AN ADDITIONAL 2
TO 4 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
TUESDAY AS WELL...MAKING FOR AN ADDITIONAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY. IF THESE RAIN AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE...IT WOULD TRANSLATE INTO
A POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING PROBLEM BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY TODAY.

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
850 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     TORNADO          TROY                    31.81N 85.97W
08/25/2008                   PIKE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UNCONFIRMED TORNADO DAMAGE TROY STATE CAMPUS AND ON
            NEEDMORE ROAD. REPORTED 0845

&&

10.5