Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 040204
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
904 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

NDC013-023-061-105-040230-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-080604T0230Z/
BURKE ND-MOUNTRAIL ND-WILLIAMS ND-DIVIDE ND-
904 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DIVIDE...NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMS...NORTHWESTERN
MOUNTRAIL AND SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES...

AT 900 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR MCGREGOR...OR 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROSBY...MOVING
NORTH AT 28 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL SOUTHEASTERN DIVIDE COUNTY AT 920 PM CDT
  RURAL SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTY AT 920 PM CDT

LAT...LON 4868 10251 4844 10274 4844 10275 4839 10278
      4844 10309 4873 10320
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 192DEG 24KT 4858 10293

$$
KS

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 040227
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

NDC013-023-061-105-040237-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-080604T0230Z/
BURKE ND-MOUNTRAIL ND-WILLIAMS ND-DIVIDE ND-
927 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DIVIDE...
NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMS...NORTHWESTERN MOUNTRAIL AND SOUTHWESTERN BURKE
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 930 PM CDT OR 830 PM MDT...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4868 10251 4844 10274 4844 10275 4839 10278
      4844 10309 4873 10320
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 192DEG 24KT 4873 10288

$$
KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
305 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORCAST. CLASSIC JUNE PATTERN
CONTINUES. WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS UPSTREAM WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL WITH PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...BEGINNING SATURDAY
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING SHOWED ONE STORM
SYSTEM LIFTING INTO MANITOBA ON SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
A WEAKER SECOND STORM SYSTEM IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND HAS IT IN NORTH DAKOTA BY
00Z SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT BACK IN SASKATCHEWAN. SO
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GRIDS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH POPS 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
BY TUESDAY WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS WITH MINS AROUND 50 DEGREES.

OVERALL THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SW UPPER FLOW INTITIALY OVER
THE WEEKEND TRANSITIONING TO A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS WITH FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME LOW
IFR CEILINGS AT KJMS AND KMOT SKIES ELSEWHERE HAVE BECOME MVFR
TO VFR IN THE FAR WEST. A 1940Z A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED NEAR
KISN BUT WAS NOT SEVERE. I EXPECT OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSBILY CENTRAL AREAS BY
EVENING. TONIGHT MAY BRING A FEW SCATTERED STORMS PARTICULARLY
IN THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

RSL/VJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
514 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-041015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
514 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008 /414 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE ALONG AND 75 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM SHERWOOD TO
ELGIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS INCLUDES THE
MINOT...DICKISON...MANDAN AND BISMARCK AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

AREAS OF FOG...DENSE AT TIMES...WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THIS PERIOD...THE ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN POINTS TOWARDS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PJA