Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 040115
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
814 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

NDC053-040124-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-080604T0200Z/
MCKENZIE ND-
814 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MCKENZIE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4827 10180 4719 10112 4701 10210 4702 10219
      4745 10218 4808 10255
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 248DEG 26KT 4794 10225 4712 10176

$$

NDC025-055-057-061-065-101-040200-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-080604T0200Z/
MCLEAN ND-MERCER ND-OLIVER ND-MOUNTRAIL ND-WARD ND-DUNN ND-
814 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT 
OR 800 PM MDT FOR EASTERN DUNN...WESTERN WARD...SOUTHEASTERN 
MOUNTRAIL...NORTHWESTERN OLIVER...MERCER AND WESTERN MCLEAN 
COUNTIES...

AT 812 PM CDT OR 712 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 
MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PARSHALL 
BAY RECREATION AREA TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF BEULAH...OR ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM 49 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINOT TO 50 MILES EAST OF 
DICKINSON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RAUB AND BEULAH BY 720 PM MDT...
  PARSHALL BY 825 PM CDT...
  DAKOTA WATERS RECREATION AREA BY 730 PM MDT...
  WHITE SHIELD...BEULAH BAY RECREATION AREA AND HAZEN BY 735 PM
  MDT...
  ROSEGLEN BY 840 PM CDT...
  PLAZA AND HAZEN BAY RECREATION AREA BY 745 PM MDT...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4827 10180 4719 10112 4701 10210 4702 10219
      4745 10218 4808 10255
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 248DEG 26KT 4794 10225 4712 10176

$$
KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
305 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORCAST. CLASSIC JUNE PATTERN
CONTINUES. WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS UPSTREAM WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL WITH PERIODS OF EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...BEGINNING SATURDAY
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING SHOWED ONE STORM
SYSTEM LIFTING INTO MANITOBA ON SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
A WEAKER SECOND STORM SYSTEM IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN DROPPING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND HAS IT IN NORTH DAKOTA BY
00Z SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT BACK IN SASKATCHEWAN. SO
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GRIDS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH POPS 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
BY TUESDAY WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS WITH MINS AROUND 50 DEGREES.

OVERALL THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SW UPPER FLOW INTITIALY OVER
THE WEEKEND TRANSITIONING TO A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS WITH FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME LOW
IFR CEILINGS AT KJMS AND KMOT SKIES ELSEWHERE HAVE BECOME MVFR
TO VFR IN THE FAR WEST. A 1940Z A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED NEAR
KISN BUT WAS NOT SEVERE. I EXPECT OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSBILY CENTRAL AREAS BY
EVENING. TONIGHT MAY BRING A FEW SCATTERED STORMS PARTICULARLY
IN THE EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

RSL/VJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
514 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-041015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
514 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008 /414 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE ALONG AND 75 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM SHERWOOD TO
ELGIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS INCLUDES THE
MINOT...DICKISON...MANDAN AND BISMARCK AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

AREAS OF FOG...DENSE AT TIMES...WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH THAT RECEIVED PRECIPITATION
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THIS PERIOD...THE ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN POINTS TOWARDS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PJA