Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS53 KARX 071934
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
233 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

IAC067-131-072015-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-080707T2015Z/
MITCHELL IA-FLOYD IA-
233 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN FLOYD AND MITCHELL COUNTIES...

AT 232 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR ROCK CREEK...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OSAGE...MOVING EAST AT 29
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ST. ANSGAR AND OSAGE SPRING PARK AROUND 240 PM...
  MITCHELL AND IDLEWILDE STATE PARK AROUND 245 PM...
  OSAGE AND ORCHARD AROUND 250 PM...
  
LAT...LON 4336 9303 4349 9256 4330 9255 4329 9256
      4317 9256 4310 9303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 250DEG 25KT 4323 9293

$$

 04

000 
WWUS53 KARX 071952
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
252 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

IAC067-131-072015-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-080707T2015Z/
MITCHELL IA-FLOYD IA-
252 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN FLOYD AND MITCHELL COUNTIES...

AT 250 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR OSAGE...MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BROWNVILLE AND LITTLE CEDAR AROUND 300 PM...
  NEW HAVEN AND PIONEER STATE PARK AROUND 305 PM...  
  MCINTIRE AND BAILEY AROUND 315 PM...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4336 9303 4349 9256 4330 9255 4329 9256
      4317 9256 4310 9303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 250DEG 25KT 4327 9276

$$

 04

000 
WWUS53 KARX 072007
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
308 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

IAC067-131-072018-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-080707T2015Z/
MITCHELL IA-FLOYD IA-
308 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN FLOYD AND MITCHELL
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 315 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THIS WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

LAT...LON 4336 9303 4349 9256 4330 9255 4329 9256
      4317 9256 4310 9303
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 250DEG 25KT 4331 9262

$$

 04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
113 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH UPPER FLOW LOCKED UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND FAR NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER
CONCERNS. IN NEAR TERM MOST OF THE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE IN FIRST
24 HOURS SO WILL BE CONCENTRATING ON SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES AND
SETUP.

MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN FLOW IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BUT COULD STILL BE SOME MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT DRYING NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COMING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. AHEAD OF THIS...WEAK SURFACE LOW NOTED
NEAR MINNESOTA AND DAKOTAS BORDER AS OF 18Z WITH WARM FRONT ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. VERY RIPE AIR IN THE FORM OF 70+ DEG F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY LEADING TO 1000-2000 J/KG MIXED
LAYER CAPES.

BEYOND THIS INSTABILITY THOUGH DEEP SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE AROUND TO FOCUS ONGOING
CONVECTION. THIS IS EVIDENT ON WIND PROFILERS AND VAD WIND PROFILES
WITH MAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AROUND 850 MB FROM NEBRASKA ACROSS
IOWA AND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON TO GET INTO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT WATCH IS
LIKELY AT VERY LEAST. GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY IN
AREA...IN ADDITION TO APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT MAY
INCREASE WIND SHEAR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING...WILL LIKELY SEE A 3
TO 6 HOUR TIME FRAME OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. ALSO CONCERNED
WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS ORIENTATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGEST RAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...CLOSER TO HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND
CAPE GRADIENT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WELL FOR POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE. HOPEFULLY STORMS WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE TOO MANY ISSUES.

BULK OF WEATHER LOOKS TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN ON TUESDAY AND SWEEPING IN SOME DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR. THIS PROMISES A FEW NICE DAYS UNTIL ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.

AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE ACROSS CANADA ON THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS WELL WEST OF OUR AREA AND SEEMS TO FOCUS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS COULD DEVELOP COMPLEX THAT RIDES BY MAINLY
TO OUR NORTH SO WILL KEEP SMALL POPS GOING AS WE PROGRESS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ZONAL FLOW AND PASSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE WEATHER INTO LATER PERIODS AS WELL. ALL MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER IN TIMING
OF MAIN PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY AND INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY BLEND THESE SOLUTIONS WITH
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG APPROACHING FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE ON
FRIDAY...AND THEN MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY.
SOME AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT MAY DROP INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT SURE THOSE KIND OF
DETAILS WILL HOLD TRUE THIS FAR OUT. SOME UPSTREAM RIDGING TAKES
OVER ON SUNDAY THOUGH SO PLAN ON KEEPING LOWER RAIN THREATS IN DAYS
6 AND 7 AND FOCUSED MORE IN SOUTHERN AREAS WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE KRST/KLSE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD
AND THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING LIFT
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...AND INCLUDE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME
FRAME FOR THESE CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAFS ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY BELOW
3SM IN HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES BY LATE EVENING
OR AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH JUST SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID
MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT AND LONG TERM - SHEA
AVIATION - DAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1020 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-081100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
1020 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A
COUPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE MAIN THREAT TIME FOR THE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2 AM
TUESDAY MORNING...EXCEPT THE ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WHICH SHOULD
BE CONFINED MAINLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM.

OF SPECIAL NOTE...THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND STEEP
TERRAIN WHERE RAINFALL RUNOFF MAY BE ENHANCED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END TUESDAY MORNING...
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
STORMS IN THIS TIME FRAME APPEAR TO BE LOW.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...IT WAS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THIS TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED AREAWIDE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ANY RAINFALL REPORTS...ALONG
WITH ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING...WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

DAS/THOMPSON