Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS53 KARX 192316
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
616 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

WIC011-192330-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0141.000000T0000Z-080719T2330Z/
BUFFALO WI-
617 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN BUFFALO COUNTY...

AT 612 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR MONDOVI...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BUFFALO COUNTY AT 630 PM

LAT...LON 4460 9153 4447 9153 4445 9153 4451 9181
      4460 9181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 286DEG 28KT 4455 9162

$$

RIECK

000 
WWUS53 KARX 192322
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
622 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

WIC011-192330-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0141.000000T0000Z-080719T2330Z/
BUFFALO WI-
622 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN BUFFALO COUNTY...

AT 620 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MONDOVI AIRFIELD...OR NEAR MONDOVI...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LAT...LON 4460 9153 4447 9153 4445 9153 4451 9181
      4460 9181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 286DEG 28KT 4454 9159

$$

RIECK

000 
WWUS53 KARX 192327
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
627 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

WIC011-192337-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0141.000000T0000Z-080719T2330Z/
BUFFALO WI-
627 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BUFFALO COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 630 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THIS WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...PERSONS ARE URGED TO
STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 4460 9153 4447 9153 4445 9153 4451 9181
      4460 9181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 286DEG 28KT 4453 9154

$$

RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
247 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

FORECAST FOCUS IS MAINLY ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM AROUND THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA...NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES AND EAU CLAIRE...TO
THE UPPER PENINSULA. SURFACE FLOW IS A BIT MUDDLED WITH REMNANTS OF
OVERNIGHT MCS TRACKING NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE CITIES AND DULUTH.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOCUSING ON THE SIOUX FALLS AREA...WHERE
CONVECTION WAS EXPANDING. FLOW OF MOIST AIR ACROSS IA IS FEEDING
INTO SOUTHERN MN.

LOTS OF SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND HOW
THEY HANDLE CONVECTION. NONE REALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH ANY OTHER...
AND THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ALTER THE MASS FIELDS ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN DIFFERING OPINIONS. OVERALL...LOCAL RUC-WRF TRACKING
REALITY ABOUT THE BEST...WITH NAM IN THE BALLPARK. LEANED TOWARD
THESE SOLUTIONS FOR THE MOST PART...BUT BLENDED BACK TOWARD GFS BY
TUESDAY.

WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO FEED INTO SOUTHERN MN...FEEL THE
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST MN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST TOWARD THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION NEAR THE TWIN CITIES COULD CONTINUE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS REACHING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FEEL IT LIKELY
THAT CONVECTION WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS...BUT TIMING AND EXACT
LOCATION HARDER TO DISCERN. NORTHERN COMPLEX CELLS SHOWING AMPLE
ROTATION...WITH MPX ISSUING TORNADO WARNINGS. CELLS TO THE WEST MAY
SHOW SOME INITIAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT FEEL HAIL AND
WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN THREATS WITH TIME AS COLD POOL
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS ASSISTING THIS WILL TRACK EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH. STILL...
LINGERING BOUNDARIES AND MOISTURE...WITH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT UP INTO THE AREA...SO CANNOT COMPLETELY REMOVE CHANCES.

NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE AREA ALREADY ON SUNDAY. COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THUS RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME QUESTION FOR TUESDAY. HAVE BEEN
CARRYING A DRY FORECAST FOR SOME TIME...AND THERE IS STILL MODEL
SUPPORT FOR THAT. BUT LATEST NAM SOLUTION INDICATING THE LAST SPOKE
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE DEEPENING GREAT LAKES
TROUGH COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO TUESDAY. NOT
CONFIDENT IN THIS...SO LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS LOOK TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA...AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS ALLOWS
SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTER PART OF THE CONTINENT AT MID WEEK.
BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS SEVERAL WAVES QUICKLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE AS THE MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS KEEPS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM SEEING ANY REAL HEAT.

DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FIRST
RIPPLE LOOKS TO BRING RAIN CHANCES ALREADY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BETTER CHANCES THURSDAY. THE MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO
AMPLIFY AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...IF THE
RIDGE CAN HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST BEFORE
BEING FLATTENED AGAIN.

MW

&&

.AVIATION...

CLUTTERED WEATHER PICTURE PERSISTS...AS A WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR A SHRA/TS THREAT. RUN/NAM12 MODELS TAKE THIS FRONT NORTH OF
KRST/KLSE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINS
EAST INTO THE REGION BY 00Z. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...EXPECT SHRA/TS TO
DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SEVERE WEATHER
COULD RESULT...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WILL KEEP SEVERE
CONDITIONS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS MOMENT. MAIN TSRA THREAT TIME WILL BE
BETWEEN 22-04Z. WITH THE FRONT STILL LINGERING...AND MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...THE PCPN
THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR SUN AFT/NIGHT. SFC WIND FIELDS WILL STAY
RATHER LIGHT...VARIABLE AT TIMES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC
FRONT. IN ADDITION...WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME POTENTIAL
CLEARING AFTER THE SHRA/TS MOVE EAST...SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG MAY
DEVELOP. WILL ADD SOME MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM 08-14Z TO COVER THIS
HEIGHTENED RISK.

RIECK

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
255 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-201000-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
255 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEAK AND WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WORK ON INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING THIS EVENING...WHILE FAVORABLE
WINDS ALOFT HELP ORGANIZE SOME OF THESE STORMS. AS A RESULT...THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MOSTLY BETWEEN 4 AND 11 PM. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY PASS. IF THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER ANY ONE
LOCATION...HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT LOOK TO REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS INTO THE AREA CENTERED ON
THURSDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT
WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AND 11 PM. REPORTS OF ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL OR LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD ALSO BE APPRECIATED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

RIECK/RRS