Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Gaylord, MI

167 
WGUS73 KAPX 131645
FFSAPX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1236 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

MIC101-165-132030-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080613T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MANISTEE MI-WEXFORD MI-
1236 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR
WEXFORD AND MANISTEE COUNTIES...

AT 1230 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT 
FLOODING CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MANISTEE AND WEXFORD 
COUNTIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ALONG SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS 
TODAY. HOWEVER...WATER AND POTENTIAL DEBRIS IS STILL ENTERING THE 
LARGER RIVERS...SUCH AS THE MANISTEE...THE LITTLE MANISTEE...AND THE 
PINE RIVER. RAPID RISES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THESE RIVERS 
TODAY...EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN HAS STOPPED. RAPID RISES ARE ALREADY 
OCCURRING AT SHERMAN AND BAXTER BRIDGE ALONG THE MANISTEE RIVER.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MANISTEE... 
WELLSTON...HOXEYVILLE...CADILLAC...AND SHERMAN.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 4419 8639 4436 8628 4452 8625 4447 8534
      4419 8534 4417 8596 4417 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 180DEG 0KT 4430 8603

$$


JZ

788 
WGUS73 KAPX 131846
FFSAPX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

MIC101-165-132030-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080613T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MANISTEE MI-WEXFORD MI-
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR
WEXFORD AND MANISTEE COUNTIES...

AT 236 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT 
FLOODING CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MANISTEE AND WEXFORD 
COUNTIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ALONG SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS 
TODAY. HOWEVER...WATER AND POTENTIAL DEBRIS IS STILL ENTERING THE 
LARGER RIVERS...SUCH AS THE MANISTEE...THE LITTLE MANISTEE...AND THE 
PINE RIVER. RAPID RISES ARE OCCURRING ALONG SOME OF THESE RIVERS 
TODAY...EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN HAS STOPPED.

THE MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN HAS RISEN TO 15.6 FEET...ABOVE FLOOD 
STAGE OF 15 FEET...THOUGH THE RATE OF RISE HAS SLOWED. FLOODING 
WAS ALSO REPORTED UPSTREAM NEAR BAXTER BRIDGE.

A RIVER GAGE ON THE PINE RIVER NEAR HOXEYVILLE MEASURED 8.04 FEET AT 
1 PM. THIS IS THE HIGHEST STAGE EVER RECORDED BY THIS GAGE...WHICH 
HAS BEEN IN OPERATION SINCE OCTOBER 1996.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MANISTEE... 
WELLSTON...HOXEYVILLE...CADILLAC...AND SHERMAN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE 
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LAT...LON 4419 8639 4436 8628 4452 8625 4447 8534
      4419 8534 4417 8596 4417 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 180DEG 0KT 4430 8603

$$


JZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
731 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT NRN MI THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON -- ESPECIALLY TO THE E OF I-75. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL END FROM W TO E TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SAT.

SMITH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008/

DISCUSSION...VERY BUSY MORNING...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE FINALLY
WINDING DOWN A BIT. MANY CONCERNS PERSIST...INCLUDING ONGOING FLOOD
WARNINGS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING -- AND ASSOCIATED
TORNADO WATCH...AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS (POSSIBLY
SEVERE) LATER TODAY.

TODAY...OVERNIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WERE
DRIVEN BY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT 850 MB
LLJ. MOISTURE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AND 850 MB DEW POINTS AROUND +12C. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...
COUPLED WITH 850 MB LLJ...HAS RESULTED IN A NEARLY IDEAL KINEMATIC
SET UP FOR TRAINING CELLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. RADAR RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OVERNIGHT SUPPORT 3 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF
MANISTEE...WEXFORD...AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES (WHERE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE). A SPOTTER NEAR WELLSTON REPORTED 5.51 INCHES AS
OF 400 AM. CLEARLY...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE
COUNTIES...AND THEY WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 11 AM.

EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN RAIN/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THEN...AS CLOUD COVER THINS A BIT BY LATE MORNING...TEMPS
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST DRYING AT 850 MB DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGHING NOT PROGGED
TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING...FEEL CHANCES ARE
GOOD FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT -- ESPECIALLY OVER ERN AREAS (WHERE
MODELS SUPPORT SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG). FURTHERMORE...WITH 500 MB
WINDS OF 50 KTS...MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES OF 7 C/KM...AND MID LEVEL
DRYING...WOULDN/T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE STORMS APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS (AGAIN OVER E/SE AREAS) WITH WIND LIKELY THE GREATEST THREAT.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E...SO EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS TO BE CONFINED TO ERN AREAS AND MAINLY IN THE EVENING. WITH
UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL W OF REGION...AND ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 125 KT 250 MB JET ACROSS REGION...FEAR THAT
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DEPART. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SKIES TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CROSS REGION
EARLY SATURDAY...SO EXPECT A QUIET START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER...
BROAD/FLAT UPPER TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -17C...
COUPLED WITH WAA/SW FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF RIDGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
LATE AFTERNOON MANY AREAS. WILL KEEP RISK OF CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS AXIS OF HIGHER 850 MB THETA-E AIR TRAVERSES REGION.

SUNDAY...THE POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. WEAK SHORT WAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION...AS 850 MB
DEW POINT AXIS HOLDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. WILL RETAIN RISK FOR
CONVECTION AREA-WIDE...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A WASHOUT.

NO CHANGES MADE TO MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FORECAST.

SMITH

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ341.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345-346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
854 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
141200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
854 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALPENA TO HOUGHTON LAKE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM... WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH THE PRIMARY THREAT.

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF MANISTEE...
WEXFORD...AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RUNOFF
TODAY MAY EXACERBATE THIS FLOODING. SEE ONGOING WARNING FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON THE LAKE HURON AND LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS...PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

JZ