Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
641 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

.AVIATION...
STORMS SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH AND EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KAMA...KDHT AND
KGUY.

NUNEZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 342 FOR THE EASTERN PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLES. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE DRYLINE...LOCATED JUST EAST OF
THE CAPROCK.

NUNEZ

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH LOW/MID 60S DEWPOINTS ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING INTO
CENTRAL CONUS MAY KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE RATHER LIMITED...BUT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...COUPLED WITH MARGINAL LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM
THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO CO...SHOULD HELP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPROACHING 30
DEGREES F...LCL HEIGHTS MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH TO SEE A STRONG TORNADO
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE /SEE THE DODGE CITY 18Z SOUNDING/. TO
OUR WEST...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE RETROGRADING LOW AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS.

THE DRYLINE SHOULD RETREAT BACK TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT
BEFORE MIXING BACK TO NEAR THE OK STATE LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD KEEP POPS LIMITED FOR TOMORROW. HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY. THE ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL WARRANT LOW END CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE THE CAP SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT WEAKER. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND NORTH
WINDS TO THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOW POPS WERE RETAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WITH THE PANHANDLES ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STRONG WESTERLIES. GIVEN THE QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...LEE
TROFFING SHOULD KEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVES...BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE MAY PRECLUDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING IS STILL ON TRACK TODAY FOR LOCATIONS BEHIND THE
DRYLINE SO IT WILL CONTINUE. FOR SATURDAY...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN MIX TO THE EAST. DRY AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL
INTERACT WITH 20 FOOT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH TO
PRODUCE POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
THEREFORE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN TWO
COLUMNS OF COUNTIES IN THE TX PANHANDLE AS WELL AS CIMARRON AND TEXAS
COUNTIES IN THE OK PANHANDLE. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 16Z THROUGH
02Z.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

17/08

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
910 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-241100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
910 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AS A PACIFIC FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE
EXISTING DRYLINE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CAPROCK. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

ADDITIONALLY...CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES OWING TO EXPECTED
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE REGION...A DRYLINE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY OF THESE DAYS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

NUNEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
915 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     HAIL             BOOKER                  36.46N 100.54W
05/23/2008  E1.50 INCH       LIPSCOMB           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            QUARTER TO PING PONG SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00238

NUNEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
920 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     HAIL             10 ENE ELMWOOD          36.68N 100.35W
05/23/2008  M0.75 INCH       BEAVER             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00239

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
928 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     HAIL             11 SSW KNOWLES          36.73N 100.27W
05/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       BEAVER             OK   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL NEAR CLEAR LAKE

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00240

CK

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