Wind Advisory 90, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 250032
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
332 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

AKZ027-250600-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-081125T0900Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
332 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ028-250600-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0090.081125T0300Z-081125T0900Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
332 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ017-022-023-250600-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-081125T0600Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...
SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
332 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 250550
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
850 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

AKZ017-022-023-250700-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-081125T0600Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...
SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
850 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ027-028-250900-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-081125T0900Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
850 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 250845
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1145 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

AKZ027-028-250945-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-081125T0900Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
1145 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
152 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

.SHORT TERM...985 MB LOW AROUND 75 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT
ALEXANDER CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND PROBABLY AT MAX STRENGTH AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS LOW TO MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN SITKA AND PORT
ALEXANDER THIS EVENING THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS FREDERICK
SOUND AREA LATE EVENING.

 SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK...STRONG FAVORABLE SE GRADIENT IN PLACE
WITH A MAX WIND ADVISORY FOR GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIND TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND DROP OFF AS GRADIENT GAIN
WESTERLY COMPONENT BY LATE EVENING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING. ONE EXCEPTION IS THAT SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN PAAP
WHICH IS DUE NORTH OF LOW TRACK AND HAS NORTH WINDS UNDER STRONG
UVV. EXPECT THIS TO TURN BACK TO RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS
VEER SOUTH AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL KEEP GALES IN SOUTHEAST
GULF AND SOUTHERN INNER  CHANNELS THROUGH THE EVENING.

 NORTH OF THE LOW...WINDS MUCH LIGHTER AND NORTHERLY WHICH IS A
CONCERN WITH A DEFORMATION BAND APPROACHING THE AREA. NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE CHANNELS BUT SHOULD STAY LIGHT IN
PUBLIC AREAS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLED WITH UPPER LEVELS.
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS KEEPING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE NORTH COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF SNOW WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
THIS EVENING. AS LOW MOVES INTO B.C. LATER TONIGHT WINDS BECOME
SOUTH AND SHOULD ALL AREAS GO BACK TO RAIN.

 A WEAK RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON MONDAY
BUT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE RIDGE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE
LIGHT RAIN GOING FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN

 NEXT FRONT CROSS THE GULF ON MONDAY AND IS JUST PUSHING INTO THE
YAKUTAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT EAST WINDS TO PICK UP TO
GALE FORCE FOR PK051-052 THROUGH THE DAY

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THE ONLY DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM
COMES WITH HOW STRONG THE SHORT WAVE THAT COMES IN AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LATE TUESDAY IS. THE GFS FAVORED A SHARPER
AND STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND THE EC FAVORED A
WEAKER TROUGH. AFTER SOME COORDINATION WITH ANCHORAGE WE DECIDED
ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS UP TO 12Z THURSDAY AND
SWITCHING TO THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED SINCE IT FAVORED A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH TO THE REST OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS.

MEANWHILE A 983 LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE EC BRINGS THIS SYSTEM IN A LITTLE FASTER AND
WEAKER THEN THE GFS, BUT STILL HAS IT ON THE SAME TRACK. THE
ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE PANHANDLE
STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP WILL START
IN THE YAKUTAT ZONE AND SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS POOR AFTER THIS POINT. THE ONLY THING I CAN
SAY WITH CONFIDENCE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND UP THE ALASKA PENN WITH SOME SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND IT TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ023-026>029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033-035-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034.

MM/EAL