Storm Warning 57, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAJK 240525 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
830 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-241400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 985 MB LOW NEAR PORT ALEXANDER WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS EVENING. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-241400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN
THE EVENING. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-241400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008 

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ013-241400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN
THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-241400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-241400-
CROSS SOUND-
830 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-241400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES...GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. SNOW
LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-241400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
830 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-241400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
830 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING
LATE. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-241400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW LATE. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-241400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
830 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-241400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
830 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN CHANNELED
AREAS IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
152 PM AKST SUN NOV 23 2008

.SHORT TERM...985 MB LOW AROUND 75 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT
ALEXANDER CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND PROBABLY AT MAX STRENGTH AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS LOW TO MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN SITKA AND PORT
ALEXANDER THIS EVENING THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS FREDERICK
SOUND AREA LATE EVENING.

 SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK...STRONG FAVORABLE SE GRADIENT IN PLACE
WITH A MAX WIND ADVISORY FOR GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIND TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND DROP OFF AS GRADIENT GAIN
WESTERLY COMPONENT BY LATE EVENING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING. ONE EXCEPTION IS THAT SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING IN PAAP
WHICH IS DUE NORTH OF LOW TRACK AND HAS NORTH WINDS UNDER STRONG
UVV. EXPECT THIS TO TURN BACK TO RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS
VEER SOUTH AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL KEEP GALES IN SOUTHEAST
GULF AND SOUTHERN INNER  CHANNELS THROUGH THE EVENING.

 NORTH OF THE LOW...WINDS MUCH LIGHTER AND NORTHERLY WHICH IS A
CONCERN WITH A DEFORMATION BAND APPROACHING THE AREA. NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE CHANNELS BUT SHOULD STAY LIGHT IN
PUBLIC AREAS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLED WITH UPPER LEVELS.
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS KEEPING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS THE NORTH COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS OF SNOW WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
THIS EVENING. AS LOW MOVES INTO B.C. LATER TONIGHT WINDS BECOME
SOUTH AND SHOULD ALL AREAS GO BACK TO RAIN.

 A WEAK RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON MONDAY
BUT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE RIDGE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE
LIGHT RAIN GOING FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN

 NEXT FRONT CROSS THE GULF ON MONDAY AND IS JUST PUSHING INTO THE
YAKUTAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT EAST WINDS TO PICK UP TO
GALE FORCE FOR PK051-052 THROUGH THE DAY

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THE ONLY DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM
COMES WITH HOW STRONG THE SHORT WAVE THAT COMES IN AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LATE TUESDAY IS. THE GFS FAVORED A SHARPER
AND STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND THE EC FAVORED A
WEAKER TROUGH. AFTER SOME COORDINATION WITH ANCHORAGE WE DECIDED
ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS UP TO 12Z THURSDAY AND
SWITCHING TO THE HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED SINCE IT FAVORED A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD APPROACH TO THE REST OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS.

MEANWHILE A 983 LOW IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE EC BRINGS THIS SYSTEM IN A LITTLE FASTER AND
WEAKER THEN THE GFS, BUT STILL HAS IT ON THE SAME TRACK. THE
ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE PANHANDLE
STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP WILL START
IN THE YAKUTAT ZONE AND SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS POOR AFTER THIS POINT. THE ONLY THING I CAN
SAY WITH CONFIDENCE IS THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND UP THE ALASKA PENN WITH SOME SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND IT TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ023-026>029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033-035-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034.

MM/EAL