Wind Advisory 8, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 141153
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
253 AM AST MON JAN 14 2008

AKZ025-141300-
/X.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080114T1200Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
253 AM AST MON JAN 14 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AST EARLY THIS MORNING.


$$

AKZ018-019-141800-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-080114T1800Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
253 AM AST MON JAN 14 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AST THIS MORNING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AST THIS MORNING. 

SOUTH WINDS TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR TAIYA INLET AND
LYNN CANAL.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 AM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 141304
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
404 AM AST MON JAN 14 2008

AKZ018-019-141415-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-080114T1800Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
404 AM AST MON JAN 14 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$


NF

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...RADAR DATA THIS MORNING HAS BEEN TRACKING A VERY
STRONG BAND OF SNOW TRACKING NORTH OVER THE COASTAL MARINE WATERS
AND BUILDING EAST AS IT MOVES. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR SITKA
ABRUPTLY DROPPED FROM 10 MILES VISIBILITY TO 2 1/2 MILES IN SNOW.
BELIEVE THIS BAND PORTENDS OF THINGS TO COME TODAY AS THE RADAR
PICTURE IS FILLING IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND WITH SOLID
MODERATE TO STRONG ECHOS. THE LOW ITSELF IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 130
MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES AND
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH AS EXPECTED WHILE SLOWLY DEEPENING. IT
SHOULD REACH MAXIMUM STRENGTH AT ABOUT 987 MB THIS AFTERNOON
RIGHT AROUND LANDFALL WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SITKA
AND PORT ALEXANDER. SO FAR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
EVERY BIT AS STRONG AS FORECAST. OBSERVATIONS FROM HYDABURG
INDICATE THAT UPGRADING TO A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY
IN AT LEAST ZONE 27. LATEST MODEL SNOW DATA INDICATING
POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON IN SKAGWAY SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ZONE CAREFULLY AS NO ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THEM CURRENTLY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES PLANNED OR
ANTICIPATED TO THE NUMEROUS WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES
CURRENTLY IN PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

A LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE CENTRAL GULF SHOWS UP WELL
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SAME FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY
IS CAPTURED WELL IN BOTH GFS AND UKMET. THE FEATURE IS PROJECTED
TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO HECATE STRAIT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
UKMET IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...DEVELOPING IT
INTO A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. GFS WASHES IT OUT AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE STRONG JET SUPPORT AND COLD SURFACE
AIR, BELIEVE REALITY IS IN THE MIDDLE GROUND AND WILL BLEND GFS
AND UKMET FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG RANGE...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BEING MOVED EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA IN
ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW CAUGHT IN
THE BERING VORTEX THE SURFACE LOW IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS NORTON SOUND BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL HALT ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FRONT PUSH
ACROSS THE TOP OF IT ON TUESDAY.  AFTER A TRAILING WAVE MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE SHOULD REBOUND BY THURSDAY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND WILL TRY TO LIMIT AMOUNT OF FOLLOWING SHORT
WAVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.

COOLER AIR BEHIND SUNDAY SYSTEM SHOULD BE SPREADING BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO ALLOW INCOMING SYSTEM TO START AS SNOW.
THIS MORNINGS DISCUSSION MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW
TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM ... THE 12Z RUNS ALSO CONFIRM THIS AS
WELL. WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANYTHING AT THIS TIME TO AVOID
CONFUSION WITH PRESENTS WINTER STATEMENTS BUT COULD SEE THE
PACKAGE TONIGHT ISSUE SOMETHING ALONG THOSE LINES. WILL BE
LEAVING THE MENTION OF SNOW THERE. INNER CHANNELS SHOULD HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS BEFORE WARMER AIR ENTERS INTO
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE REGION. SHOULD SEE A TRAILING WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY ALSO PUSH MORE SUB TROPIC AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.  SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS WELL SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS.

WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM LOOK TO BE AT LEAST GALE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS AND OFF SHORE ALTHOUGH NOT SURE STORMS COULD BE RULED OUT
AS WELL.

WILL NOT BE MAKING MUCH OF ANY CHANGES TO UP COMING WEEKEND WHERE
THE RIDGE SHOULD BE AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL THE SYSTEMS OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OR INTO BRISTOL BAY.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHWEST CANADA SHOULD ALSO BE SETTING UP AND HAVING LOW LEVEL
OFF SHORE FLOW. SO THE DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HVY SNOW WRNG AKZ021-025
         SNOW ADVSRY AKZ019-020-022-024
         HIGH WIND WRNG AKZ027
         WIND ADVSRY AKZ023-026-028>029

MARINE...GALES PKZ033>034-036
         SMCR ALL REMAINING COASTAL WATERS AND INNER CHANNELS

FCF - BMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
746 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  7 WNW JUNEAU            58.34N 134.59W
01/13/2008  M63 MPH                             AK   ASOS

            HIGH WIND REPORT FOR GUSTS USES HIGH SUSTAINED WINDS AS
            CATEGORY IS NOT AVAIALBLE ON LIST. JUNEAU AIRPORT GUST OF
            63 MPH 140414Z OR 714 PM.

&&

JBT