Gale Warning 36, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST MON JAN 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE LOW FROM YESTERDAY IS NOW ENTERING THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA. A VORTICITY
LOBE/TROUGH IS SLIDING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.  NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS (DUE TO THE COLD AIR THAT HAS MOVED IN BEHIND THE FRONT)
OVER THE EASTERN GULF THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.... EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS WEST OF YAKUTAT THAT IS IN THE CLEAR AS THE BACK EDGE
OF SHOWERS IS IN THE VICINITY OF YAKUTAT BAY.

SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS MOVING EAST TO THE
EASTERN GULF AND WILL BE SUPPRESSED ON THE NORTH PORTION OF THE
GULF AS AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST TO TOWARDS THE
SEWARD PENINSULA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. AM
EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO
EXPECT THAT I MAY BE ISSUING SEVERAL SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AT LEAST ZONES 017>022..AND 25
WITH THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

THERE IS A LARGE PUSH OF WARM AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THAT WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE LAND AREAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO SNOW SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY (PRECIPITATION
RATES) AS THERE IS SUB TROPICAL SOURCE REGION FOR THE MOISTURE.

SHOULD SEE THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT INCREASE UP TO A
SOUTHEAST TO EAST GALE OVER THE OFF SHORE AND THEN COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN BECOME A SOUTHWEST GALE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONE... AND PROBABLY PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF CROSS SOUND WITH SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE
REST OF THE OUTER COASTAL AND SOME OF THE INNER CHANNEL REGIONS.

.LONG RANGE...THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
TRANSITION FROM A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT TO A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. MODEL 6-HOURLY RAIN RATES OF ANYWHERE
FROM 1/4 INCH TO NEARLY 1 1/2 INCHES IN NORTHERN COASTAL
LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN
FLOODING AS THE RAIN COMBINES WITH MELTING SNOW AND RUNS OFF THE
FROZEN GROUND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT
SOUTHWESTERLIES IN THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES WITH GALES POSSIBLY
EXPANDING SOUTH FROM CROSS SOUND TO CAPE EDGECUMBE. BY
WEDNESDAY...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATING
RAPIDLY AS IT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH DOWN THE PANHANDLE AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY OVER SEAK.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS A
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE A RAIN EVENT FROM THE BEGINNING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ICY STRAIT AND THE REMAINDER OF LOCATIONS
CHANGING TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED LOW IS
PROJECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK AT THIS TIME AND WITH SO MUCH
DISTANCE BETWEEN THE THE LOW CENTER AND THE PANHANDLE THE FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. THE LOW ITSELF IS
FORECAST TO SKIRT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO THE YUKON
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHEN IT DOES...A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER THE PANHANDLE AND THE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED INNER CHANNELS WILL LIKELY SEE GALES NORTH OF ICY STRAIT
AND STRONG SMALL CRAFT WINDS SOUTH OF THERE.

A WAVE WHICH DEVELOPS WELL TO THE SOUTH ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OF THE THURSDAY SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO THE EASTERN GULF
LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY WEEKEND. FAIR TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT SEAK THIS COMING WEEKEND BUT THE STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM AND LOCATION OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS CORRESPONDING
LOW.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE AT THIS TIME SEE SHORT
MARINE...GALE PKZ051
      ...SMALL CRAFT PKZ031-034-036-041>043-051-052

BMB/FCF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
359 PM AST MON JAN 14 2008

AKZ017>029-151500-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...
HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...
JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...
KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
359 PM AST MON JAN 14 2008

...SNOW AND HEAVY RAINS MAY MAKE PRESENT A LOCAL FLOODING HAZARD...

A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING WITH IT A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING MONDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST SOUTHEAST
ALASKA LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND...WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE RESULTING SNOW MELT ON TOP OF FROZEN
GROUND...WILL MAKE SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE.

IF YOU ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT STANDING WATER...CONTACT YOUR LOCAL
LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
WEATHER NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

FCF