Wind Advisory 71, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 161058
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
258 AM AKDT THU OCT 16 2008


AKZ018-025-161200-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0071.000000T0000Z-081016T1100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...JUNEAU
258 AM AKDT THU OCT 16 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING. 

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1147 AM AKDT WED OCT 15 2008

.SHORT TERM...SHORT TERM FORECAST RUNNING PRETTY MUCH AS
PLANNED. STALLED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WAVE/LOW ON THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. THIS IS
BRINGING RENEWED WIND TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND
INCREASED RAINFALL RATES TO SAID REGION.

 FIRST OF THE WAVES IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING SOUTH OFFSHORE OF
CHICHAGOF AND BARANOF ISLANDS. THE NEXT DEVELOPING WAVE WILL MOVE
NORTH TO BE ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SITKA BY THURSDAY
MORNING AND JUST WEST OF SITKA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE WAVES AS THE FRONT
PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BAND WILL BE SPREADING EAST TO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE INCREASING
THE WINDS AGAIN TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS SOUTH OF CROSS SOUND FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

 FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE YAKUTAT AREA TONIGHT BUT
WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING TO OFF OF SITKA FOR THURSDAY...THE
YAKUTAT AREA WILL BE LIMITED TO WHAT SHOWERS WILL BE SPREAD
ONSHORE BY THE WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THAT AREA. SO EXPECT TO
BE ONLY GOING INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THAT AREA THURSDAY.
BEFORE THEN...FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAPE VALUES UP TO 400 WITH LIS
DOWN TO -2 OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF...ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. WILL BE MENTIONING HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH SMALL
HAIL/SLEET AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TS MIXED INTO THE SHOWERS ACROSS
THAT AREA.

 A SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE GULF
EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING AND THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SETTLES IN
BETTER COLD AIR WILL BE WRAPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY
THURSDAY.

 GALE WARNING AGAIN FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE TROUGH SLIDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE GRADIENT
SHIFTING TO A NORTH WIND BY AFTERNOON IN THE CANAL. OTHERWISE
FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS/SEAS FOR MOST AREAS
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...CONTINUING WITH THE 5 WAVE MODEL KEEPING THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
THUS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL ALLOW SEVERAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF. MOST MODELS AGREE ON
THE NEXT GALE FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA SAT INTO SUN
BRINGING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THE 12Z GFS SHOWING A
STRONGER AND FASTER SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. COORDINATION WITH
HPC AND PAFC AS THEY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS WAS BECOMING MORE
CONSISTENT.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE GRIDS SINCE MOST PREVIOUSLY USED
MODELS WERE NOT AS CONSISTENT. DID BLEND OUT TO DAY 3 WITH THE
NAM AS A TRANSITION WITH THE SHORT TERM. THE LOW MOVING IN ON
FRIDAY LOOKS TO CONTINUE NORTHERLY WITH THE MID LEVEL PVA AND
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THAT TRACK. KEEPING THE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY WITH THE 500MB TEMPS NEAR
-33. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ICE PELLETS ON FRIDAY SEEM MORE
LIKELY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 ON THE FORECAST PAYA SOUNDING.

FOR NEXT WEEK WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH MORE GALE
FORCE LOWS MOVING INTO THE GULF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL
FAIRLY HIGH UNTIL SUNDAY. MODEL CONSISTENCY IS STILL POOR BUT
EXPECTING THE MID WEEK WEATHER PATTERN TO REMAIN WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

BEZENEK/PRB