Wind Advisory 57, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 140235
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
635 PM AKDT WED AUG 13 2008


AKZ027-140345-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0057.000000T0000Z-080814T0300Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
635 PM AKDT WED AUG 13 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
107 PM AKDT WED AUG 13 2008

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PANHANDLE
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH ALL STATIONS REPORTING RAIN. THERE IS A
983MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ATTM AND
WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TO BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
KODIAK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS HEAVY TO MODERATE RAIN
FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A
110KT JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE JET DYNAMICS IS ENHANCING THE
RAIN ALONG WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS
JET WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT SO THE NORTHERN
AREAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP RATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AMOUNTS FROM .75-1.5 INCHES. THE RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO LET SOME THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BUT THERE IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF THAT
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS TROF WILL
KEEP THE RAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH THE DAY WITH AMOUNTS
LESS THAN TODAY. WITH ALL OF THIS RAIN STREAMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS WILL INCREASE IN FLOW BUT AT THIS TIME MOST OF THE STREAMS
WILL REMAIN IN THEIR BANKS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
THE TAIYA RIVER NEAR SKAGWAY AS THEY RECEIVED A GOOD AMOUNT OF
RAIN LAST NIGHT TO BRING THE RIVER UP TO NEAR ACTIONS STAGE. THAT
AREA AGAIN TONIGHT MAY RECEIVE NEAR A HALF INCH OF RAIN AND MAY
RAISE THE RIVER ABOUT ACTION AND NEAR FLOOD STAGE. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THE SITUATION AND IF IT GOES HIGHER THAN ACTION STAGE A
FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED.

 AS FOR WIND...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF AND
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 20 T0 30 KT OF WIND. THESE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO SOME SMALL CRAFT WIND OVER SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL BUT THINK
THESES WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS BUT
SHOULD NOT BE THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AND WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SE AK THURSDAY AND
THIS MAY INCREASE THE SOUTHERN WINDS IN NORTH/SOUTH CHANNELS
THROUGH THE DAY TO 20KT ESPECIALLY IN LYNN CANAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...ALL MODELS ARRIVED ON TIME WITH A GENERAL AGREEMENT
FOR RETROGRADING RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA BOUNCING BACK PROGRESSIVELY
TO SOUTHEAST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
ENTERING THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL INITIALIZATION IS
A BIT FASTER ON HANDLING THE CURRENT RETROGRADING LOW IN THE CENTRAL
GULF CAUSING THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH A LITTLE OFF TO THE EAST ALONG THE DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE
ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. OTHER THAN THAT...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN ENSEMBLE
SPREAD BECOMES BIGGER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DROPS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AVERAGE. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE 12Z GFS
IS A LITTLE SLOWER BUT STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF. WISH TO LEAN MORE
OVER THE GFS SOLUTIONS FOR SLOWING DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...TO ADD A CONSISTENCY...WILL GO
50/50 BLEND WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL MAKE A QUITE DIFFERENT RESULTS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

A SEMI-LONG WAVE PATTERN THAT HAS ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND CAUSED A RETROGRADING PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
SLOWLY AND FINALLY BREAKING DOWN IN BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
NORTH PACIFIC HIGH AND WEAKENING PACIFIC NORTHWEST HIGH. THIS
SHARPENS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RETROGRADING LOW AND START MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT LONG PERIOD OF
SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND
GENERATING SMALL CRAFT SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER THE BREAKING OF
LONG WAVE PATTERN...THE REMAINING SHORT WAVE TROUGH START MOVING
EASTWARD AS A NEXT SYSTEM AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PICK UP THE WINDS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH UPPER MARGIN OF SMALL CRAFT
WINDS AS WELL AS WIND WAVES UP 10 TO 12 FEET ON MONDAY OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND ENTIRE OUTSIDE WATERS. INSIDE WATERS CLOSER
TO THE OCEAN WILL EXPERIENCE 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AS WELL ON
MONDAY.

THE LONG FETCH OF EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL START
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND GIVES A
SHORT BREAK OVER CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN ZONES AND COASTAL
PANHANDLE WITH LIKELY POPS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT FRONT
WILL ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST PANHANDLE ZONES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043-051-052.

ABJ/SJA