Gale Warning 189, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1213 PM AKDT TUE AUG 12 2008

.SHORT TERM...THERE IS A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF
ATTM WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF BY WED AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY
BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE FIRST
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL COME BACK IN TONIGHT AND
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS THERE WILL BE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ALONG WITH A LONG SW FETCH AT THE UPPER LEVELS. THESES
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

 THE WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THIS MORNING AND ALLOWING
PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN SOME PLACES OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. THE
STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FRONT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE OUT COAST. THERE IS A GALE
WARNING OUT FOR CLARENCE STRAIT ATTM BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND NEAR CAPE SPENCER/ICY STRAIT AREA TO
SMALL CRAFTS AS THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ACCELERATED BY FRONT
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

 THE DEVELOPING LOW FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WED WILL INCREASE THE
WINDS OVER THE GULF TO GALES FROM THE SE WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. FOR
THE INSIDE WATERS THERE WILL SOME PLACES CLOSER TO THE OUTSIDE
THAT WILL SEE SOME SMALL CRAFTS BUT THINK MOST OF THE REST OF THE
INSIDE WATERS WILL SEE 20KT. OVER LAND...THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WINDY TONIGHT AND WED THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATE
TONIGHT AND STAY REMAIN THERE THROUGH WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC
SITUATION MOVING THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SW GULF WED AND
THEN WEAKENING AND MOVING N TOWARDS KODIAK. RIDGING OVER BC FRI
INTO SAT WILL BRING LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE PANHANDLE WITH LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. VERIFIED WITH HPC TO BLEND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS 50/50 WITH THE GFS40 AS IT DEALT WITH A LOW
MOVING SE FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. EVEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW THE AVERAGE...SEE A
STEADY DROP IN WINDS THURS ONWARD WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
FIELD FORMING. ANCHORAGE EAST WIND GRIDS ALSO SHOWED LIGHT WINDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMP FIELDS KEEPING
THEM TOWARDS CLIMO AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-033>036.

ABJ/PRB/SJA