Wind Advisory 23, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 192314
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
214 PM AST TUE FEB 19 2008

AKZ023-027-200015-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-080220T0100Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...CRAIG...
KLAWOCK
214 PM AST TUE FEB 19 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

BECKER

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST MON FEB 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING THE WAVE
TRACKING NORTH IN THE EASTERN GULF TO HAVE TAKEN A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. IMMEDIATE RESULT OF THIS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS PRECIP
OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...AND IN PARTICULAR ALONG THE OUTER
COAST...AND A LITTLE FARTHER PENETRATION TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. BOTH UKMET AND NAM HAVE DEPICTED THIS FEATURE AS A
CLOSED LOW THOUGH A LITTLE TOO SLOW AND TOO FAR WEST. CURRENTLY
RAIN EXTENDS FROM YAKUTAT AS FAR SOUTH AS SITKA AND ANGOON.
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
SHOULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS AS WELL AS CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT LATER TODAY.

SECOND ITEM OF NOTE IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM IS VERY GOOD ON CP...TRACK...AND SPEED
AND ALL SHOW IT ENTERING THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE SOUTH EARLY
TONIGHT. THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES MORE AND MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT IS PROJECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...BELIEVE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE SUCH THAT NO WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY.
SOUTHEASTERLY GALES OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES AS WELL AS THE
OFFSHORE ZONE ARE PROBABLE. THE PROJECTED TRACK WILL LIKELY KEEP
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE WEST AND SO SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO
THE POP FIELDS WILL BE MADE TODAY.

A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN TH FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOG NOT LIKELY HOWEVER DUE TO
EXPECTED WINDS WELL ABOVE WHAT WILL BE NECESSARY TO KEEP THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE STIRRED UP. BY TOMORROW MORNING...PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL HAVE WORKED ALL THE WAY UP TO THE NORTHERN ZONES
NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS BUT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. FCF

.LONG RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS THIS MORNING REMAIN TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK SO THERE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
WILL REFRESH THE GRIDS WITH THE 12Z GFS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PARENT UPPER LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH THE MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE BERING TO FORM A OMEGA BLOCK. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEEKEND BEFORE THE RIDGE GETS UNDER CUT TO FORM A
STRONG HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. AS A UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF TUE ROTATES AROUND THE PARENT LOW INTO WESTERN AK
ANOTHER LOW WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE PARENT LOW AND LIFT INTO
THE GULF WED NIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW WILL ALSO LIFT INTO WESTERN AK
THURSDAY BEFORE THE PARENT SETS UP SHOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
THIS WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE TUE
NIGHT. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE. MOST
OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE LIQUID FORM BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
AREAS OF SNOW MIXED IN OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THERE
WILL BE SOME STRONG WINDS BUT THEY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH MAX GALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF TAPERING TO
MAX SMALL CRAFT OVER THE SE GULF. THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES BUT WITH THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
THINK THE WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS...THE ONLY AREAS WOULD BE OUT OF EASTERLY GAPS.

ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF WED
AFTERNOON AND OVER SE AK THAT NIGHT AS A 970MB SURFACE LOW
ROTATES OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW INTO
THE WESTERN GULF. AGAIN THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE GULF
AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
EAST/WEST SO THERE MAYBE STRONGER GUST FROM THE EAST OVER THE
INNER CHANNELS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
WARM AIR SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
SOME COLDER AIR TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND BEGIN THE CHANGE FROM
LIQUID TO FROZEN SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL RAIN IN THE MORNING THEN
BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE PARENT LOW NOW IN THE CENTRAL
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DOMINATE ON FRIDAY AND SAT.

THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH A HIGH
BUILDING IN CANADA AND INCREASING THE OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. ABJ

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE

MARINE...GALE PKZ043-051>052
         SMCR PKZ021>022-033>036-041>042