Gale Warning 89, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST TUE FEB 19 2008

.SHORT RANGE...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF CAUSING MOST OF THE PANHANDLE TO BE UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COVER NEAR THE
COAST MOUNTAINS WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG NEAR PAJN AND PAHN. THE
FOG MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS THERE SOME VERY
WARM AIR LOFT TO MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE VERY STABLE. THE FRONT
OFFSHORE IS PRODUCING SOME VERY STRONG ADVY GUST ALONG THE COAST
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONT FALLS APART AS IT
MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE INNER CHANNELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THE
STEADY RAIN WILL BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE PANHANDLE BUT AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT.

A UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AROUND THE
PATENT LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF BY
WED AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GULF THROUGH WED BUT THE WEATHER FRONT WILL STILL
PACK A PUNCH WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WED TO ADVY
LEVEL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING TIME
FRAME FOR ZONES 23 AND 27. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
WATERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BELOW GALES BUT THEY WILL INCREASE
BACK UP TO GALES THROUGH WED. THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS WILL
SEE BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AND NEAR INTERIOR PASSES AS THE
EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. THE INNER CHANNELS
WILL SEE THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT BUT WILL COME BACK AROUND
TO THE NORTH THROUGH WED.

AS FOR RAIN ON WED...IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND
SPREAD OVER THOSE AREAS BY MID-DAY. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
WILL SEE A MAINLY DRY WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.

.LONG RANGE...
IT IS ENCOURAGING THAT THE 12Z AK-GFS-40 IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
AND CURRENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN THE MODEL TO BEAT
LAST WEEK. BIG FEATURE ON THU IS THE BLOCK OVR THE ROCKIES AND A
MAJOR UPR LOW CENTER SOMEWHERE NEAR SAND POINT. THIS SETS UP A
STRONG BUT SHORT FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALF OVR THE PANHANDLE THU
INTO FRI. MY GRIDS HAVE PREVIOUSLY OVERDONE POPS FOR THU AND FRI
...MAINLY RAIN. THIS DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH EAST COMPONENT IN THE
FLOW WHICH IS TRICKY...SO YET TO DECIDE WET/DRY. 12Z GFS INSISTS
ON COOLING ON FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON SAT
AND SUN AS PER GFS BUT MODELS DIVERGE THEN...SO UNCERTAIN.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE THRU FRI. CONFIDENCE LOW SAT AND BEYOND. LOOK
FOR FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON 12Z AK-GFS-40.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVY...PKZ23 27 THROUGH 4 PM AND THEN ON WED
AFTNOON AND EVENING.

MARINE...GALE...AKZ51 52 41>43
         SCA...AKZ11 21 22 31>36

ABJ/JC