Wind Advisory 19, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 081748
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
848 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

AKZ025-090100-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-080208T1800Z/
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.A.0001.080209T0900Z-080209T2100Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
848 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AST THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AST THIS MORNING. A HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. 

NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE IN
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AND OF OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND COMBINED WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TAKU WINDS IN THE
DOWNTOWN AND DOUGLAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WIND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS TO
25 BELOW ZERO.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE ITEMS THAT MAY BE BLOW AROUND OR
DAMAGED BY THE WIND. BOAT AND AIRPLANE OWNERS SHOULD CHECK
MOORINGS AND TIE DOWNS. WHEN OUTDOORS WATCH OUT FOR FLYING
DEBRIS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE
NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ023-024-026-090100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0019.080209T0900Z-080209T1500Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...
PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
848 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM
AST SATURDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM
AST SATURDAY. 

WIDESPREAD GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA LATE TONIGHT. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS TO 20 BELOW
ZERO.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE ITEMS THAT MAY BE BLOW AROUND OR
DAMAGED BY THE WIND. BOAT AND AIRPLANE OWNERS SHOULD CHECK
MOORINGS AND TIE DOWNS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ021-022-090100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0019.080209T0900Z-080209T2100Z/
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
848 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM
AST SATURDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM
AST SATURDAY. 

WIDESPREAD GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
WIND CHILLS TO 20 BELOW ZERO.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE ITEMS THAT MAY BE BLOW AROUND OR
DAMAGED BY THE WIND. BOAT AND AIRPLANE OWNERS SHOULD CHECK
MOORINGS AND TIE DOWNS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ020-090100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0019.080209T0900Z-080210T0300Z/
GLACIER BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GUSTAVUS
848 AM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
AST SATURDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
AST SATURDAY. 

WIDESPREAD GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE
GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND WIND
CHILLS TO 20 BELOW ZERO.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE ITEMS THAT MAY BE BLOW AROUND OR
DAMAGED BY THE WIND. BOAT AND AIRPLANE OWNERS SHOULD CHECK
MOORINGS AND TIE DOWNS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 082135
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1235 PM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

AKZ023-024-026-082245-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0019.080209T0900Z-080209T1500Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...
PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
1235 PM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE THE WINTER STORM WARNING
STATEMENT FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

THIS IS THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ021-022-082245-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0019.080209T0900Z-080209T2100Z/
EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
1235 PM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE THE WINTER STORM WARNING
STATEMENT FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

THIS IS THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ020-082245-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0019.080209T0900Z-080210T0300Z/
GLACIER BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GUSTAVUS
1235 PM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE THE WINTER STORM WARNING
STATEMENT FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

THIS IS THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ025-082245-
/X.CAN.PAJK.HW.A.0001.080209T0900Z-080209T2100Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
1235 PM AST FRI FEB 8 2008

...HIGH WIND WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH. 

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
NOON ON MONDAY. PLEASE SEE THE WINTER STORM WARNING STATEMENT FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST THU FEB 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE LOW THAT PRODUCED UP TO NINE INCHES OF SNOW
LAST NIGHT ACROSS ZONE 26 AND NEARLY SEVEN INCHES OF SNOW AS FAR
NORTH AS HOONAH LAST NIGH IS NOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
FILLING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WEST FROM THE LOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO THE GULF...THEN NORTHWEST TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WHICH ARE NOW BEGINNING
TO TAPER OFF. THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A PAIR OF SHALLOW SURFACE CIRCULATIONS
LOCATED WEST OF SITKA AND SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING. THE BAROCLINIC
LEAF CLOUD IS NOW SOUTH OF THE DIXON ENTRANCE AND THE JET IS
ACTING TO SWING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST AROUND THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LOW ANCHORED IN THE NWT. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE WSW JET OVER
THE PANHANDLE WILL BE REPLACED BY A NW JET COMING DOWN FROM THE
ALASKAN INTERIOR ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DECAYING OMEGA BLOCK. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL INHIBIT THE COLDEST OF THE ARCTIC AIR FROM MAKING
IT TO THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE COAST.

AFTER THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE PANHANDLE
WITH A LOT OF SUN. TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTH. NIGHT
TIME LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR
CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH. AM FORECASTING TEMPS DOWN TO MINUS 20
ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY TO THE UPPER TEENS DOWN IN KETCHIKAN.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER ZONE 18 WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
SO..WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES...AM PLANNING ON EXTENDING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SKAGWAY AT LEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH WIND THERE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY HAVE
BEEN IN RECENT DAYS.

THERE IS LESS EVIDENCE OF STRONG WINDS OR WIND GUSTS OVER
HAINES...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THEM AND A NEW
ONE MAY NOT BE NECESSARY TONIGHT. WINDS OVER ZONE 25 AND DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU IN PARTICULAR CONTINUE TO BE VERY GUSTY...REGULARLY
REACHING 40 TO 50 MPH AT SOME DOWNTOWN SENSORS. MAY HAVE TO
CONTINUE THIS ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY
NEED ONE FOR TOMORROW. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW EAST OF YAKUTAT AND WEST
OF FAIRWEATHER CONTINUES TO BE VERY STRONG WITH A PLUME OF STRONG
WIND EXTENDING INTO COASTAL MARINE ZONE 51. THIS PLUME...ALONG
WITH ANOTHER EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM CROSS SOUND WERE CAPTURED
IN RECENT SAR IMAGERY...AS WERE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE THE NORTH-SOUTH INNER CHANNELS AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
CHATHAM STRAIT. PLANNING ON GALES DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT OVER
THE INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT WITH FREEZING SPRAY IN MOST LOCATION.
ON THE OUTSIDE...GALES IN COASTAL MARINE ZONE 51 WITH FREEZING
SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE EDGECUMBE. FCF

.LONG RANGE...MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE.  LARGE DIFFERENCES APPEAR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC.  THE ECM AND UKMET TAKE THE NORTHERN-MOST TRACK
TOWARDS THE FAIRWEATHER RANGE WHILE THE NAM BRINGS THE LOW WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE GFS TAKES A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PATH
BUT FOLLOWS A MIDDLE GROUND TRACK OF THE LOW TOWARDS DIXON
ENTRANCE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A 12Z ECMWF/GFS BLEND TO MITIGATE
THE POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.

A STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHERN YUKON
WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF.  AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...THIS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS EVEN FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.  GAP WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN HALF.  MOUNTAIN WAVE MODEL
NUMBERS INDICATE INGREDIENTS FOR A TAKU WIND EVENT IN DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.  VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BEGIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WHEN THE CANADIAN
HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

MEANWHILE AN OCCLUSION MOVING NORTHWARD BRINGS A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NORTHERN HALF WILL REMAIN A QUESTION AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND
UPON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THIS LOW.  FOR NOW WILL SPREAD AT LEAST
LIKELIES EVERYWHERE EXCEPT YAKUTAT.  THE COLD ARCTIC AIR SET IN
PLACE WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS EVENT TO BE SNOW...WITH WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PATTERN BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE.  A LOW
DEEPENS AROUND A TRIPLE POINT FEATURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
AND RIDES THE JET INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.  WHILE THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW IS SIMILAR...IT WILL MOVE THOUGH THE AREA QUICKER
WITHOUT A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH TO CONTEND WITH.  LATE IN THE WEEK
MODELS POINT TO A VERY STRONG (AROUND 950 MB) LOW MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.  A FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY THEN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE LOW SLOWLY DISSIPATES
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HANKO

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WX ADVSRY AKZ018
         WIND ADVISORY AKZ025

MARINE...GALE PKZ011>013-031>032
         SMCR ELSEWHERE