Storm Warning 10, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 090011
OFFAJK
OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AST FRI FEB 8 2008 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-091400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
1040 MB HIGH OVER THE YUKON WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SAT. A DEVELOPING STORM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF SAT THEN WEAKENING OFF YAKUTAT ON SUN.  
$$

PKZ310-091400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AST FRI FEB 8 2008 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT LATE. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW.  
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK67 PAJK 091242
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144 WEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AST SAT FEB 9 2008 

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-100100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 NORTH AND EAST OF
144 WEST...
A STRONG HIGH OVER THE YUKON WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE THROUGH SUN. A
COMPLEX STORM OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NE GULF BY SUN
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. 

$$

PKZ310-100100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AST SAT FEB 9 2008 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW
IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST THU FEB 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE LOW THAT PRODUCED UP TO NINE INCHES OF SNOW
LAST NIGHT ACROSS ZONE 26 AND NEARLY SEVEN INCHES OF SNOW AS FAR
NORTH AS HOONAH LAST NIGH IS NOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
FILLING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WEST FROM THE LOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO THE GULF...THEN NORTHWEST TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WHICH ARE NOW BEGINNING
TO TAPER OFF. THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A PAIR OF SHALLOW SURFACE CIRCULATIONS
LOCATED WEST OF SITKA AND SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING. THE BAROCLINIC
LEAF CLOUD IS NOW SOUTH OF THE DIXON ENTRANCE AND THE JET IS
ACTING TO SWING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST AROUND THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LOW ANCHORED IN THE NWT. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE WSW JET OVER
THE PANHANDLE WILL BE REPLACED BY A NW JET COMING DOWN FROM THE
ALASKAN INTERIOR ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DECAYING OMEGA BLOCK. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL INHIBIT THE COLDEST OF THE ARCTIC AIR FROM MAKING
IT TO THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE COAST.

AFTER THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE PANHANDLE
WITH A LOT OF SUN. TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER...WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTH. NIGHT
TIME LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR
CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH. AM FORECASTING TEMPS DOWN TO MINUS 20
ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY TO THE UPPER TEENS DOWN IN KETCHIKAN.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER ZONE 18 WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
SO..WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES...AM PLANNING ON EXTENDING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SKAGWAY AT LEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH WIND THERE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY HAVE
BEEN IN RECENT DAYS.

THERE IS LESS EVIDENCE OF STRONG WINDS OR WIND GUSTS OVER
HAINES...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THEM AND A NEW
ONE MAY NOT BE NECESSARY TONIGHT. WINDS OVER ZONE 25 AND DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU IN PARTICULAR CONTINUE TO BE VERY GUSTY...REGULARLY
REACHING 40 TO 50 MPH AT SOME DOWNTOWN SENSORS. MAY HAVE TO
CONTINUE THIS ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY
NEED ONE FOR TOMORROW. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW EAST OF YAKUTAT AND WEST
OF FAIRWEATHER CONTINUES TO BE VERY STRONG WITH A PLUME OF STRONG
WIND EXTENDING INTO COASTAL MARINE ZONE 51. THIS PLUME...ALONG
WITH ANOTHER EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM CROSS SOUND WERE CAPTURED
IN RECENT SAR IMAGERY...AS WERE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE THE NORTH-SOUTH INNER CHANNELS AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
CHATHAM STRAIT. PLANNING ON GALES DIMINISHING TO SMALL CRAFT OVER
THE INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT WITH FREEZING SPRAY IN MOST LOCATION.
ON THE OUTSIDE...GALES IN COASTAL MARINE ZONE 51 WITH FREEZING
SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE EDGECUMBE. FCF

.LONG RANGE...MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
RANGE.  LARGE DIFFERENCES APPEAR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC.  THE ECM AND UKMET TAKE THE NORTHERN-MOST TRACK
TOWARDS THE FAIRWEATHER RANGE WHILE THE NAM BRINGS THE LOW WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE GFS TAKES A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PATH
BUT FOLLOWS A MIDDLE GROUND TRACK OF THE LOW TOWARDS DIXON
ENTRANCE. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A 12Z ECMWF/GFS BLEND TO MITIGATE
THE POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS.

A STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHERN YUKON
WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF.  AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...THIS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS EVEN FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.  GAP WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN HALF.  MOUNTAIN WAVE MODEL
NUMBERS INDICATE INGREDIENTS FOR A TAKU WIND EVENT IN DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.  VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BEGIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WHEN THE CANADIAN
HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

MEANWHILE AN OCCLUSION MOVING NORTHWARD BRINGS A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NORTHERN HALF WILL REMAIN A QUESTION AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND
UPON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THIS LOW.  FOR NOW WILL SPREAD AT LEAST
LIKELIES EVERYWHERE EXCEPT YAKUTAT.  THE COLD ARCTIC AIR SET IN
PLACE WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS EVENT TO BE SNOW...WITH WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PATTERN BECOMES VERY PROGRESSIVE.  A LOW
DEEPENS AROUND A TRIPLE POINT FEATURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
AND RIDES THE JET INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.  WHILE THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW IS SIMILAR...IT WILL MOVE THOUGH THE AREA QUICKER
WITHOUT A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH TO CONTEND WITH.  LATE IN THE WEEK
MODELS POINT TO A VERY STRONG (AROUND 950 MB) LOW MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.  A FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY THEN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE LOW SLOWLY DISSIPATES
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HANKO

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WX ADVSRY AKZ018
         WIND ADVISORY AKZ025

MARINE...GALE PKZ011>013-031>032
         SMCR ELSEWHERE