Storm Warning 53, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 141223
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-150100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 978 MB STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE
ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF SITKA THIS EVENING AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES THE CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ041-150100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-150100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT THIS MORNING AND BECOMING SE
40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING 10 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING
TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-150100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT THIS MORNING AND DIMINISHING
TO NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 40 KT LATE. SEAS 23 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-150100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

...GALE WARNING THIS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT
OF INTERIOR PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO W 30 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-150100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAJK 141238 CCA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
401 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-150100-
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 978 MB STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE
ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF SITKA THIS EVENING AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES THE CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ041-150100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-150100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT THIS MORNING AND BECOMING SE
40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING 10 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING
TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-150100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT THIS MORNING AND DIMINISHING
TO NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 40 KT LATE. SEAS 23 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-150100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
401 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

CORRECTED HEADLINE

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT
OF INTERIOR PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO W 30 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-150100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 14 2008 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1224 PM AKST THU NOV 13 2008

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE INDICATE WEAK TROF
IN NORTHERN GULF OF AK CONTINUING TO MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING WITH
IT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST NEAR PAYA AND RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST NEAR PASI. FURTHER INLAND GENERALLY
BROKEN CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL PEAKS OF THE SUN WHERE
OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND EXPECT TO INCREASE AT INLAND LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OUTER
COAST...THIS IS THE CALM BEFORE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW.

 WIND AND RAIN INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTS AND
THEN INLAND AREAS AS 985 MB (12ZGFS) TO 980 MB (12ZNAM) LOW MOVES
NE FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OVER 140W TOWARDS SITKA. WIND
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED STARTING TONIGHT FOR ZONES 23,
27, AND 28. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW. NAM12Z DEEPENS THE LOW TO 978 MB
AND TRACKS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GFS12Z. MODEL BLEND OF THE GFS
AND NAM PROVIDED EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH INHERITED GRIDS AND
WEATHER TRENDS AND WITH LONG TERM DESK.

 &&

.LONG TERM...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE STORM
FORCE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SAT...BUT STILL SOME STRENGTH AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES. MODELS THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE SE GULF ON MONDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THE STORM FORCE LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS NE ACROSS
THE SE GULF THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
FRI NIGHT. THE 70 KT SW JET MAX WITH THE SECOND WRAP STILL
EXPECTED TO BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE OFFSHORE GULF,
CLARENCE STRAIT AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL ZONES. NEW MODELS DID WEAKEN WINDS A BIT BUT STILL KEPT
AT ADVISORY LEVELS. EASTERLY GALES FOR ICY STRAIT AND CROSS SOUND
WITH N SMCR FOR N AND S LYNN CANAL. RAIN WILL SPREAD N AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW N OF
FREDERICKS SOUND AND SNOW IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND AND WITH A BUILDING RIDGE WILL SEE A DROP IN WINDS AND
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE
SUN.

FOR MONDAY MODELS KEEP THE NEXT LOW MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AK
PANHANDLE BUT SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND TRACK. GFS
COMING IN STRONGER, SLOWER AND KEEPING MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH THE
EC WEAKER, FASTER AND TRACKING MORE TO THE NORTH. LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AFTER COORDINATION WITH HPC AND ANCHORAGE
BUT KEEPING WINDS A BIT LOWER THAN THE GFS FOR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.THE NEXT SYSTEM ON WED WILL BE WEAKER BUT KEEPING POPS IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT STILL A QUESTION
WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT WHICH WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
FINAL STORM TRACK. CONFIDENCE DROPS FOR NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
DIVERGING MODELS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ021-022-033-035-036-042-043-051-052.

&&

CCC/PRB